The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal. The economy is showing signs of turning ...

[sealybobo]

it's a message board, you can say anything you wish. doesn't make it fact. A Reagan economic adviser on Fox this morning Art Laffer crediting the European market as well. And he was negative on tariffs, but China and Europe. the rest of the world, and money is flowing into the US. So when you make it on some TV show, I give two shits your knowledge.

Laffer is a hardcore partisan and we're watching his Laffer Curve not work in REAL TIME.

No surprise, Trumpster getting news and opinion from Laffer and Fox.

Believe whatever you want. You're being conned.
.

so like the bias democrats on the feds? hahahahaaha, your irony is noted.

"...bias democrats on the feds"

Huh?

Once again, you make zero sense. You're completely out of your league here, but you lack the intellectual wherewithal to see it.

Stay in your lane. Go listen to another talk radio podcast.
.

I follow advisers not idiots on message boards. What was consumer spending numbers at the end of july? you're the expert, did those numbers look good?

No such thing as an expert in my field.

They looked good, that's good news.

Now, let me know when you're ready to provide some intelligent, informed, independent thought.

I won't hold my breath.
.

What is Trump doing that is causing this?

Consumer confidence drops more than expected, reaching its lowest point in nearly two years
PUBLISHED TUE, JUN 25 2019 10:01 AM JUN 25 2019 11:21 AM EDT

 

[Mikeoxenormous]

The only policy option Trump has is to continue blubbering and blathering nonsense to his cheering base.

Meanwhile, its only the top end of the social order that received any benefit from Trump's tax cuts.

The stock market bubble is looking to burst biggly sending 401k values to the bottom.

Europe is already feeling the chill of recession. Its just a matter of time for the USA now.

Trump took a growing economy from Obama and sent it spinning.

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal
The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust
By TESSA STUART

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 9 : President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC.
Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post/Getty Images
Market-watchers enjoying their first sip of coffee around 6 a.m. might have done a spit-take. For a brief period Wednesday morning, yields on two-year Treasury bonds were higher than those on ten-year ones — a short-term investment was seen as riskier than a long term one, and the return therefore higher — a signal that can portend major trouble for the economy. The last time the yields “inverted” was in 2007, before the “great” recession; the two times before that also directly preceded recessions. The dynamic flipped back before markets opened Wednesday, but stocks nevertheless dropped amid new fears of serious economic trouble ahead.

According to research from Credit Suisse (via the Washington Post) recessions historically have followed 18 to 24 months after the yield curve inversions like the one Wednesday morning.
Before we get too carried away, it’s worth mentioning that there are some who argue the yield curve invert isn’t as reliable a recession indicator as it’s generally made out to be. Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen struck a note of caution during a Wednesday morning appearance on Fox Business. “Historically, it has been a pretty good signal of recession, and it think that’s when markets pay attention to it, but I would really urge that on this occasion it may be a less good signal,” Yellen said. “The reason for that is there are a number of factors other than market expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields.”
But sooner or later, the current economic expansion — by many measures the longest in U.S. history — is going to end. And that’s particularly troubling when you consider how many Americans continue to fare poorly even in the current “strong economy.”
Some 40 percent of American families struggled to cover the cost of food, health care, housing or utilities last year, according to a report from the Urban Institute. A Fed found four in 10 adults couldn’t cover a $400 emergency expense. Even at the current low unemployment rate, about 6 million workers are actively looking for jobs right now — and that doesn’t include part-time workers looking for more hours or those who want work but have stopped looking. Men in the prime of their lives are employed at lower rates than they were before the last recession. Suicide rates are spiking, driving down U.S. life expectancy.
A Gallup poll released in January found 48 percent of Americans felt economic conditions were worsening — a trend that had steadily progressed in preceding months — despite the fundamentals remaining strong. At issue was the fact that the benefits of a strong economy were not being broadly shared by all Americans.
Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell called the dynamic out in two speeches he delivered at the end of last year. “The benefits of this strong economy and sound financial system have not reached all Americans,” he explained. “The aggregate statistics tend to mask important disparities by income, race and geography.”
A recession could take many of those families struggling on the margins and push them squarely into poverty. A family that can’t cover a $400 expense definitely isn’t ready to weather an unexpected layoff. And workers already struggling to find jobs will fare worse if and when the number of openings plummet and the number of unemployed job seekers climbs.
The fact that there are so many Americans still struggling highlights the opportunity President Trump and Republicans missed when they slashed taxes for corporations, businesses and the wealthy, rather than, say, shoring up social safety net accounts, investing in economic development in marginalized communities, funding worker training programs to help them transition to more stable jobs — or even just paying off some of the nation’s debt.
Instead, of course, Republicans promised the working-class and poor would get their share as benefits trickled down in the form of a tax cut-fueled economic explosion. Whether that was a lie or a delusion doesn’t matter now. The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust.

Brutal.....Bwaaahhhaaaaaaaa…...More talking points from MSNBC again. Do you ever have an original thought? I have $100,000 waiting for the next down turn. Last time there was a recession that the Democrats caused in 2007(thanks to Nan from San Fran) I went all in with Chipotle making 8 times profit.

 

[sealybobo]

Lets face it. The American people are stupid AF. Of course I mean the ones who either don't vote or the ones who are middle class/poor and vote GOP.

Those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it. Or something like that. Did we forget the Bush era? Reminds me of today. Big tax breaks to the rich. An economy that was making the rich richer than ever but wasn't good for the middle class. All the while Republicans were telling us the fundamentals of our economy were strong. Remember McCain said that when we were heading into a recession? That is why Obama won in 2008. McCain didn't seem to have a clue what to do about the Great Recession Bush caused.

Video: Trump says economy is 'strong' amid Dow plunge

Lets face it. The American people are stupid AF.

Hope and Change, eh?

Did we forget the Bush era? Reminds me of today. Big tax breaks to the rich.

Everybody got tax cuts.

Obama was much better than Bush and Trump. Obama would win if he ran against Trump.

Obama read a good teleprompter.
His policies were awful.

Trump can't pull it off and his policies crashed the DOW. But that's probably on purpose. Buy low sell high. The rich love the Trump roller coaster. Do you?

Anyone with any investment knowledge and a little savvy made money last week...and probably could this week.

Tell me what I should invest in. We will look in two weeks and see if you were right.

 

[Mikeoxenormous]

The only policy option Trump has is to continue blubbering and blathering nonsense to his cheering base.

Meanwhile, its only the top end of the social order that received any benefit from Trump's tax cuts.

The stock market bubble is looking to burst biggly sending 401k values to the bottom.

Europe is already feeling the chill of recession. Its just a matter of time for the USA now.

Trump took a growing economy from Obama and sent it spinning.

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal
The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust
By TESSA STUART

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 9 : President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC.
Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post/Getty Images
Market-watchers enjoying their first sip of coffee around 6 a.m. might have done a spit-take. For a brief period Wednesday morning, yields on two-year Treasury bonds were higher than those on ten-year ones — a short-term investment was seen as riskier than a long term one, and the return therefore higher — a signal that can portend major trouble for the economy. The last time the yields “inverted” was in 2007, before the “great” recession; the two times before that also directly preceded recessions. The dynamic flipped back before markets opened Wednesday, but stocks nevertheless dropped amid new fears of serious economic trouble ahead.

According to research from Credit Suisse (via the Washington Post) recessions historically have followed 18 to 24 months after the yield curve inversions like the one Wednesday morning.
Before we get too carried away, it’s worth mentioning that there are some who argue the yield curve invert isn’t as reliable a recession indicator as it’s generally made out to be. Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen struck a note of caution during a Wednesday morning appearance on Fox Business. “Historically, it has been a pretty good signal of recession, and it think that’s when markets pay attention to it, but I would really urge that on this occasion it may be a less good signal,” Yellen said. “The reason for that is there are a number of factors other than market expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields.”
But sooner or later, the current economic expansion — by many measures the longest in U.S. history — is going to end. And that’s particularly troubling when you consider how many Americans continue to fare poorly even in the current “strong economy.”
Some 40 percent of American families struggled to cover the cost of food, health care, housing or utilities last year, according to a report from the Urban Institute. A Fed found four in 10 adults couldn’t cover a $400 emergency expense. Even at the current low unemployment rate, about 6 million workers are actively looking for jobs right now — and that doesn’t include part-time workers looking for more hours or those who want work but have stopped looking. Men in the prime of their lives are employed at lower rates than they were before the last recession. Suicide rates are spiking, driving down U.S. life expectancy.
A Gallup poll released in January found 48 percent of Americans felt economic conditions were worsening — a trend that had steadily progressed in preceding months — despite the fundamentals remaining strong. At issue was the fact that the benefits of a strong economy were not being broadly shared by all Americans.
Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell called the dynamic out in two speeches he delivered at the end of last year. “The benefits of this strong economy and sound financial system have not reached all Americans,” he explained. “The aggregate statistics tend to mask important disparities by income, race and geography.”
A recession could take many of those families struggling on the margins and push them squarely into poverty. A family that can’t cover a $400 expense definitely isn’t ready to weather an unexpected layoff. And workers already struggling to find jobs will fare worse if and when the number of openings plummet and the number of unemployed job seekers climbs.
The fact that there are so many Americans still struggling highlights the opportunity President Trump and Republicans missed when they slashed taxes for corporations, businesses and the wealthy, rather than, say, shoring up social safety net accounts, investing in economic development in marginalized communities, funding worker training programs to help them transition to more stable jobs — or even just paying off some of the nation’s debt.
Instead, of course, Republicans promised the working-class and poor would get their share as benefits trickled down in the form of a tax cut-fueled economic explosion. Whether that was a lie or a delusion doesn’t matter now. The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust.

Oh by the way, in 2007 gasoline went up to $4.00 a gallon so some people had to choose between paying rent or filling their gas tanks up for work. What is the gas price today? Oh yea, brutal...

 

[jc456]

it's a message board, you can say anything you wish. doesn't make it fact. A Reagan economic adviser on Fox this morning Art Laffer crediting the European market as well. And he was negative on tariffs, but China and Europe. the rest of the world, and money is flowing into the US. So when you make it on some TV show, I give two shits your knowledge.

Laffer is a hardcore partisan and we're watching his Laffer Curve not work in REAL TIME.

No surprise, Trumpster getting news and opinion from Laffer and Fox.

Believe whatever you want. You're being conned.
.

so like the bias democrats on the feds? hahahahaaha, your irony is noted.

"...bias democrats on the feds"

Huh?

Once again, you make zero sense. You're completely out of your league here, but you lack the intellectual wherewithal to see it.

Stay in your lane. Go listen to another talk radio podcast.
.

I follow advisers not idiots on message boards. What was consumer spending numbers at the end of july? you're the expert, did those numbers look good?

No such thing as an expert in my field.

They looked good, that's good news.

Now, let me know when you're ready to provide some intelligent, informed, independent thought.

I won't hold my breath.
.

were the consumer numbers better than expected in July?

how can there be a recession when consumer confidence is better than expected?

 

[Rambunctious]

 

[Meathead]

The only policy option Trump has is to continue blubbering and blathering nonsense to his cheering base.

Meanwhile, its only the top end of the social order that received any benefit from Trump's tax cuts.

The stock market bubble is looking to burst biggly sending 401k values to the bottom.

Europe is already feeling the chill of recession. Its just a matter of time for the USA now.

Trump took a growing economy from Obama and sent it spinning.

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal
The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust
By TESSA STUART

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 9 : President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC.
Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post/Getty Images
Market-watchers enjoying their first sip of coffee around 6 a.m. might have done a spit-take. For a brief period Wednesday morning, yields on two-year Treasury bonds were higher than those on ten-year ones — a short-term investment was seen as riskier than a long term one, and the return therefore higher — a signal that can portend major trouble for the economy. The last time the yields “inverted” was in 2007, before the “great” recession; the two times before that also directly preceded recessions. The dynamic flipped back before markets opened Wednesday, but stocks nevertheless dropped amid new fears of serious economic trouble ahead.

According to research from Credit Suisse (via the Washington Post) recessions historically have followed 18 to 24 months after the yield curve inversions like the one Wednesday morning.
Before we get too carried away, it’s worth mentioning that there are some who argue the yield curve invert isn’t as reliable a recession indicator as it’s generally made out to be. Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen struck a note of caution during a Wednesday morning appearance on Fox Business. “Historically, it has been a pretty good signal of recession, and it think that’s when markets pay attention to it, but I would really urge that on this occasion it may be a less good signal,” Yellen said. “The reason for that is there are a number of factors other than market expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields.”
But sooner or later, the current economic expansion — by many measures the longest in U.S. history — is going to end. And that’s particularly troubling when you consider how many Americans continue to fare poorly even in the current “strong economy.”
Some 40 percent of American families struggled to cover the cost of food, health care, housing or utilities last year, according to a report from the Urban Institute. A Fed found four in 10 adults couldn’t cover a $400 emergency expense. Even at the current low unemployment rate, about 6 million workers are actively looking for jobs right now — and that doesn’t include part-time workers looking for more hours or those who want work but have stopped looking. Men in the prime of their lives are employed at lower rates than they were before the last recession. Suicide rates are spiking, driving down U.S. life expectancy.
A Gallup poll released in January found 48 percent of Americans felt economic conditions were worsening — a trend that had steadily progressed in preceding months — despite the fundamentals remaining strong. At issue was the fact that the benefits of a strong economy were not being broadly shared by all Americans.
Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell called the dynamic out in two speeches he delivered at the end of last year. “The benefits of this strong economy and sound financial system have not reached all Americans,” he explained. “The aggregate statistics tend to mask important disparities by income, race and geography.”
A recession could take many of those families struggling on the margins and push them squarely into poverty. A family that can’t cover a $400 expense definitely isn’t ready to weather an unexpected layoff. And workers already struggling to find jobs will fare worse if and when the number of openings plummet and the number of unemployed job seekers climbs.
The fact that there are so many Americans still struggling highlights the opportunity President Trump and Republicans missed when they slashed taxes for corporations, businesses and the wealthy, rather than, say, shoring up social safety net accounts, investing in economic development in marginalized communities, funding worker training programs to help them transition to more stable jobs — or even just paying off some of the nation’s debt.
Instead, of course, Republicans promised the working-class and poor would get their share as benefits trickled down in the form of a tax cut-fueled economic explosion. Whether that was a lie or a delusion doesn’t matter now. The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust.

Butthurt 102. Congratualtions!

 

[Rambunctious]

Maher: I'm "Hoping" For "A Crashing Economy" So We Can Get Rid Of Trump, "Bring On The Recession"

 

[Mac1958]

Laffer is a hardcore partisan and we're watching his Laffer Curve not work in REAL TIME.

No surprise, Trumpster getting news and opinion from Laffer and Fox.

Believe whatever you want. You're being conned.
.

so like the bias democrats on the feds? hahahahaaha, your irony is noted.

"...bias democrats on the feds"

Huh?

Once again, you make zero sense. You're completely out of your league here, but you lack the intellectual wherewithal to see it.

Stay in your lane. Go listen to another talk radio podcast.
.

I follow advisers not idiots on message boards. What was consumer spending numbers at the end of july? you're the expert, did those numbers look good?

No such thing as an expert in my field.

They looked good, that's good news.

Now, let me know when you're ready to provide some intelligent, informed, independent thought.

I won't hold my breath.
.

What is Trump doing that is causing this?

Consumer confidence drops more than expected, reaching its lowest point in nearly two years
PUBLISHED TUE, JUN 25 2019 10:01 AM JUN 25 2019 11:21 AM EDT

The recovery is long in the tooth. Household debt is getting up there. Corporate debt is high and it's slowing capital spending. Global growth is slow. The trade mess hasn't helped.

It's always a combination of things. It could turn back up. Right now we don't know.
.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Lets face it. The American people are stupid AF.

Hope and Change, eh?

Did we forget the Bush era? Reminds me of today. Big tax breaks to the rich.

Everybody got tax cuts.

Obama was much better than Bush and Trump. Obama would win if he ran against Trump.

Obama read a good teleprompter.
His policies were awful.

Trump can't pull it off and his policies crashed the DOW. But that's probably on purpose. Buy low sell high. The rich love the Trump roller coaster. Do you?

Anyone with any investment knowledge and a little savvy made money last week...and probably could this week.

Tell me what I should invest in. We will look in two weeks and see if you were right.

I'm in energy...do your own homework. Last week I made a tidy profit on a holding that specializes in energy infrastructure. Haven't bought back yet but I probably will

 

[Mac1958]

Laffer is a hardcore partisan and we're watching his Laffer Curve not work in REAL TIME.

No surprise, Trumpster getting news and opinion from Laffer and Fox.

Believe whatever you want. You're being conned.
.

so like the bias democrats on the feds? hahahahaaha, your irony is noted.

"...bias democrats on the feds"

Huh?

Once again, you make zero sense. You're completely out of your league here, but you lack the intellectual wherewithal to see it.

Stay in your lane. Go listen to another talk radio podcast.
.

I follow advisers not idiots on message boards. What was consumer spending numbers at the end of july? you're the expert, did those numbers look good?

No such thing as an expert in my field.

They looked good, that's good news.

Now, let me know when you're ready to provide some intelligent, informed, independent thought.

I won't hold my breath.
.

were the consumer numbers better than expected in July?

how can there be a recession when consumer confidence is better than expected?

Confidence and spending are not necessarily correlated. Please see post 443.
.

 

[Rambunctious]

The only policy option Trump has is to continue blubbering and blathering nonsense to his cheering base.

Meanwhile, its only the top end of the social order that received any benefit from Trump's tax cuts.

The stock market bubble is looking to burst biggly sending 401k values to the bottom.

Europe is already feeling the chill of recession. Its just a matter of time for the USA now.

Trump took a growing economy from Obama and sent it spinning.

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal
The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust
By TESSA STUART

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 9 : President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC.
Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post/Getty Images
Market-watchers enjoying their first sip of coffee around 6 a.m. might have done a spit-take. For a brief period Wednesday morning, yields on two-year Treasury bonds were higher than those on ten-year ones — a short-term investment was seen as riskier than a long term one, and the return therefore higher — a signal that can portend major trouble for the economy. The last time the yields “inverted” was in 2007, before the “great” recession; the two times before that also directly preceded recessions. The dynamic flipped back before markets opened Wednesday, but stocks nevertheless dropped amid new fears of serious economic trouble ahead.

According to research from Credit Suisse (via the Washington Post) recessions historically have followed 18 to 24 months after the yield curve inversions like the one Wednesday morning.
Before we get too carried away, it’s worth mentioning that there are some who argue the yield curve invert isn’t as reliable a recession indicator as it’s generally made out to be. Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen struck a note of caution during a Wednesday morning appearance on Fox Business. “Historically, it has been a pretty good signal of recession, and it think that’s when markets pay attention to it, but I would really urge that on this occasion it may be a less good signal,” Yellen said. “The reason for that is there are a number of factors other than market expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields.”
But sooner or later, the current economic expansion — by many measures the longest in U.S. history — is going to end. And that’s particularly troubling when you consider how many Americans continue to fare poorly even in the current “strong economy.”
Some 40 percent of American families struggled to cover the cost of food, health care, housing or utilities last year, according to a report from the Urban Institute. A Fed found four in 10 adults couldn’t cover a $400 emergency expense. Even at the current low unemployment rate, about 6 million workers are actively looking for jobs right now — and that doesn’t include part-time workers looking for more hours or those who want work but have stopped looking. Men in the prime of their lives are employed at lower rates than they were before the last recession. Suicide rates are spiking, driving down U.S. life expectancy.
A Gallup poll released in January found 48 percent of Americans felt economic conditions were worsening — a trend that had steadily progressed in preceding months — despite the fundamentals remaining strong. At issue was the fact that the benefits of a strong economy were not being broadly shared by all Americans.
Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell called the dynamic out in two speeches he delivered at the end of last year. “The benefits of this strong economy and sound financial system have not reached all Americans,” he explained. “The aggregate statistics tend to mask important disparities by income, race and geography.”
A recession could take many of those families struggling on the margins and push them squarely into poverty. A family that can’t cover a $400 expense definitely isn’t ready to weather an unexpected layoff. And workers already struggling to find jobs will fare worse if and when the number of openings plummet and the number of unemployed job seekers climbs.
The fact that there are so many Americans still struggling highlights the opportunity President Trump and Republicans missed when they slashed taxes for corporations, businesses and the wealthy, rather than, say, shoring up social safety net accounts, investing in economic development in marginalized communities, funding worker training programs to help them transition to more stable jobs — or even just paying off some of the nation’s debt.
Instead, of course, Republicans promised the working-class and poor would get their share as benefits trickled down in the form of a tax cut-fueled economic explosion. Whether that was a lie or a delusion doesn’t matter now. The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust.

The economy in the USA is no where near a recession.....you can not have a recession while everyone is working and paying down personal debt...oh you and the media will try but you will not succeed....You had better go back to Russia Russia Russia.....LMFAO....

 

[Oddball]

The only policy option Trump has is to continue blubbering and blathering nonsense to his cheering base.

Meanwhile, its only the top end of the social order that received any benefit from Trump's tax cuts.

The stock market bubble is looking to burst biggly sending 401k values to the bottom.

Europe is already feeling the chill of recession. Its just a matter of time for the USA now.

Trump took a growing economy from Obama and sent it spinning.

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal
The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust
By TESSA STUART

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 9 : President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC.
Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post/Getty Images
Market-watchers enjoying their first sip of coffee around 6 a.m. might have done a spit-take. For a brief period Wednesday morning, yields on two-year Treasury bonds were higher than those on ten-year ones — a short-term investment was seen as riskier than a long term one, and the return therefore higher — a signal that can portend major trouble for the economy. The last time the yields “inverted” was in 2007, before the “great” recession; the two times before that also directly preceded recessions. The dynamic flipped back before markets opened Wednesday, but stocks nevertheless dropped amid new fears of serious economic trouble ahead.

According to research from Credit Suisse (via the Washington Post) recessions historically have followed 18 to 24 months after the yield curve inversions like the one Wednesday morning.
Before we get too carried away, it’s worth mentioning that there are some who argue the yield curve invert isn’t as reliable a recession indicator as it’s generally made out to be. Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen struck a note of caution during a Wednesday morning appearance on Fox Business. “Historically, it has been a pretty good signal of recession, and it think that’s when markets pay attention to it, but I would really urge that on this occasion it may be a less good signal,” Yellen said. “The reason for that is there are a number of factors other than market expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields.”
But sooner or later, the current economic expansion — by many measures the longest in U.S. history — is going to end. And that’s particularly troubling when you consider how many Americans continue to fare poorly even in the current “strong economy.”
Some 40 percent of American families struggled to cover the cost of food, health care, housing or utilities last year, according to a report from the Urban Institute. A Fed found four in 10 adults couldn’t cover a $400 emergency expense. Even at the current low unemployment rate, about 6 million workers are actively looking for jobs right now — and that doesn’t include part-time workers looking for more hours or those who want work but have stopped looking. Men in the prime of their lives are employed at lower rates than they were before the last recession. Suicide rates are spiking, driving down U.S. life expectancy.
A Gallup poll released in January found 48 percent of Americans felt economic conditions were worsening — a trend that had steadily progressed in preceding months — despite the fundamentals remaining strong. At issue was the fact that the benefits of a strong economy were not being broadly shared by all Americans.
Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell called the dynamic out in two speeches he delivered at the end of last year. “The benefits of this strong economy and sound financial system have not reached all Americans,” he explained. “The aggregate statistics tend to mask important disparities by income, race and geography.”
A recession could take many of those families struggling on the margins and push them squarely into poverty. A family that can’t cover a $400 expense definitely isn’t ready to weather an unexpected layoff. And workers already struggling to find jobs will fare worse if and when the number of openings plummet and the number of unemployed job seekers climbs.
The fact that there are so many Americans still struggling highlights the opportunity President Trump and Republicans missed when they slashed taxes for corporations, businesses and the wealthy, rather than, say, shoring up social safety net accounts, investing in economic development in marginalized communities, funding worker training programs to help them transition to more stable jobs — or even just paying off some of the nation’s debt.
Instead, of course, Republicans promised the working-class and poor would get their share as benefits trickled down in the form of a tax cut-fueled economic explosion. Whether that was a lie or a delusion doesn’t matter now. The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust.

If it's one place that is the go-to source for economic news, it's Rolling Stone!

 

[Oldstyle]

'Predicted'? This is what traitorous, Trump-hating sore-loser party-1st Democrats / snowflakes have been praying for, for the record-setting economy to stall, for the country to fail, for Americans to be hurt and suffer so they could blame the President, knowing that if the economy remained / remains strong they don't have a shot in hell of beating him in 2020. Pulling for your country to fail for party benefit is akin to treason in my book. You either have something to offer the country on your own or you don't...without praying the country suffers...

Yea, we told you so. Our way was slower but steady. All we needed to do to improve the obama economy was to pass a middle class only tax break. The rich were already killing it under obama.

We didn’t pray for it. Don’t be gay. We just told you so. Trumps bad for international business.

Now I worry he will rig the election like putin would. A man he admires. A murderer. So trump had to kill someone to get in the club. Epstein was trumps hit he had to do. For somebody. It is his federal prison. Leadership is responsible. His own words in 2013

So Trump killed Epstein? Really? I mean REALLY? You need to check yourself, Sealy because THAT is some world class stupid shit!!!!!!

As stupid as Clinton killing Epstein?

Didn't see you tell our asshole POTUS to go check himself.

Trump kicked Epstein out of Mar a Lago. Bill Clinton was regular on the Lolita Express! So you tell me which one had more to fear of Epstein cutting a deal to keep out of a long prison sentence! I'm not saying Clinton DID have Epstein killed by the way...but I'm amused by attempts by you on the left to pin the blame on Trump. That's the epitome of stupid!

I stopped hanging out with my college buddy the minute he got put on the sex offenders list. Doesn't mean I don't still love him. I just can't be seen with him.

Clinton is old as fuck and has no power. Trump needs to be re elected. Trump did some shit on the Lolita Express too. Before and after he went to Russia and paid prostitutes to pee on the bed Obama slept in. Sicko perv.

Trump was “compromised” by Russian intelligence as a result of his past visits to Moscow, and that Trump feared he could be blackmailed. The salacious centerpiece of this alleged conspiracy revolves around Trump’s 2013 trip to Moscow, when he stayed at the Ritz-Carlton hotel. Trump was filmed by F.S.B. operatives with “a number of prostitutes” who performed a “‘golden showers’ (urination) show in front of him.”

Now THAT is pathetic! You're trying to trot out that "Russia" bullshit again? Did you not get the memo, Sparky? That crap was made up by Richard Steele and Glenn Simpson to smear Donald Trump before an election! It's fiction...you buffoon!

 

[Oldstyle]

'Predicted'? This is what traitorous, Trump-hating sore-loser party-1st Democrats / snowflakes have been praying for, for the record-setting economy to stall, for the country to fail, for Americans to be hurt and suffer so they could blame the President, knowing that if the economy remained / remains strong they don't have a shot in hell of beating him in 2020. Pulling for your country to fail for party benefit is akin to treason in my book. You either have something to offer the country on your own or you don't...without praying the country suffers...

Yea, we told you so. Our way was slower but steady. All we needed to do to improve the obama economy was to pass a middle class only tax break. The rich were already killing it under obama.

We didn’t pray for it. Don’t be gay. We just told you so. Trumps bad for international business.

Now I worry he will rig the election like putin would. A man he admires. A murderer. So trump had to kill someone to get in the club. Epstein was trumps hit he had to do. For somebody. It is his federal prison. Leadership is responsible. His own words in 2013

So Trump killed Epstein? Really? I mean REALLY? You need to check yourself, Sealy because THAT is some world class stupid shit!!!!!!

As stupid as Clinton killing Epstein?

Didn't see you tell our asshole POTUS to go check himself.

Trump kicked Epstein out of Mar a Lago. Bill Clinton was regular on the Lolita Express! So you tell me which one had more to fear of Epstein cutting a deal to keep out of a long prison sentence! I'm not saying Clinton DID have Epstein killed by the way...but I'm amused by attempts by you on the left to pin the blame on Trump. That's the epitome of stupid!

I stopped hanging out with my college buddy the minute he got put on the sex offenders list. Doesn't mean I don't still love him. I just can't be seen with him.

Clinton is old as fuck and has no power. Trump needs to be re elected. Trump did some shit on the Lolita Express too. Before and after he went to Russia and paid prostitutes to pee on the bed Obama slept in. Sicko perv.

Trump was “compromised” by Russian intelligence as a result of his past visits to Moscow, and that Trump feared he could be blackmailed. The salacious centerpiece of this alleged conspiracy revolves around Trump’s 2013 trip to Moscow, when he stayed at the Ritz-Carlton hotel. Trump was filmed by F.S.B. operatives with “a number of prostitutes” who performed a “‘golden showers’ (urination) show in front of him.”

And if you still secretly "love" someone who's a sex offender but won't be seen with them in public...you're severely lacking in ethics!

 

[TomParks]

The liberals and their media mouthpieces better get to work.....where I live companies are having trouble finding workers.

 

[Rambunctious]

There is no chance of a recession before 2020...its laughable....

 

[Oldstyle]

'Predicted'? This is what traitorous, Trump-hating sore-loser party-1st Democrats / snowflakes have been praying for, for the record-setting economy to stall, for the country to fail, for Americans to be hurt and suffer so they could blame the President, knowing that if the economy remained / remains strong they don't have a shot in hell of beating him in 2020. Pulling for your country to fail for party benefit is akin to treason in my book. You either have something to offer the country on your own or you don't...without praying the country suffers...

Yea, we told you so. Our way was slower but steady. All we needed to do to improve the obama economy was to pass a middle class only tax break. The rich were already killing it under obama.

We didn’t pray for it. Don’t be gay. We just told you so. Trumps bad for international business.

Now I worry he will rig the election like putin would. A man he admires. A murderer. So trump had to kill someone to get in the club. Epstein was trumps hit he had to do. For somebody. It is his federal prison. Leadership is responsible. His own words in 2013

So Trump killed Epstein? Really? I mean REALLY? You need to check yourself, Sealy because THAT is some world class stupid shit!!!!!!

As stupid as Clinton killing Epstein?

Didn't see you tell our asshole POTUS to go check himself.

one judge is now dead as well, I'd say that comment has more truth than trump. Seen the picture of clinton in a dress? Slick willie? Blue dress from contact with Epstein. hmmmm Vince Foster, seth Rich, patterns.

Is Oldstyle going to say So Clinton killed Epstein? Really? I mean REALLY? You need to check yourself, jc456 because THAT is some world class stupid shit!!!!!!

Is Oldstyle going to say that to you?

Even Trump admits he is responsible. He is in charge of the Federal Government. Epstein was in a Federal Prison.

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
Leadership: Whatever happens, you're responsible. If it doesn't happen, you're responsible.

11:01 AM - 8 Nov 2013

I actually posted that I WASN'T saying Clinton killed Epstein! I'm simply mocking your pathetic attempt to make Epstein's death (from whatever cause!) Donald Trump's fault.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

The only policy option Trump has is to continue blubbering and blathering nonsense to his cheering base.

Meanwhile, its only the top end of the social order that received any benefit from Trump's tax cuts.

The stock market bubble is looking to burst biggly sending 401k values to the bottom.

Europe is already feeling the chill of recession. Its just a matter of time for the USA now.

Trump took a growing economy from Obama and sent it spinning.

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal

The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal
The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust
By TESSA STUART

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 9 : President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
President Donald J. Trump stops to talk to reporters and members of the media as he walks to Marine One to depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Aug 09, 2019 in Washington, DC.
Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post/Getty Images
Market-watchers enjoying their first sip of coffee around 6 a.m. might have done a spit-take. For a brief period Wednesday morning, yields on two-year Treasury bonds were higher than those on ten-year ones — a short-term investment was seen as riskier than a long term one, and the return therefore higher — a signal that can portend major trouble for the economy. The last time the yields “inverted” was in 2007, before the “great” recession; the two times before that also directly preceded recessions. The dynamic flipped back before markets opened Wednesday, but stocks nevertheless dropped amid new fears of serious economic trouble ahead.

According to research from Credit Suisse (via the Washington Post) recessions historically have followed 18 to 24 months after the yield curve inversions like the one Wednesday morning.
Before we get too carried away, it’s worth mentioning that there are some who argue the yield curve invert isn’t as reliable a recession indicator as it’s generally made out to be. Former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen struck a note of caution during a Wednesday morning appearance on Fox Business. “Historically, it has been a pretty good signal of recession, and it think that’s when markets pay attention to it, but I would really urge that on this occasion it may be a less good signal,” Yellen said. “The reason for that is there are a number of factors other than market expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields.”
But sooner or later, the current economic expansion — by many measures the longest in U.S. history — is going to end. And that’s particularly troubling when you consider how many Americans continue to fare poorly even in the current “strong economy.”
Some 40 percent of American families struggled to cover the cost of food, health care, housing or utilities last year, according to a report from the Urban Institute. A Fed found four in 10 adults couldn’t cover a $400 emergency expense. Even at the current low unemployment rate, about 6 million workers are actively looking for jobs right now — and that doesn’t include part-time workers looking for more hours or those who want work but have stopped looking. Men in the prime of their lives are employed at lower rates than they were before the last recession. Suicide rates are spiking, driving down U.S. life expectancy.
A Gallup poll released in January found 48 percent of Americans felt economic conditions were worsening — a trend that had steadily progressed in preceding months — despite the fundamentals remaining strong. At issue was the fact that the benefits of a strong economy were not being broadly shared by all Americans.
Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell called the dynamic out in two speeches he delivered at the end of last year. “The benefits of this strong economy and sound financial system have not reached all Americans,” he explained. “The aggregate statistics tend to mask important disparities by income, race and geography.”
A recession could take many of those families struggling on the margins and push them squarely into poverty. A family that can’t cover a $400 expense definitely isn’t ready to weather an unexpected layoff. And workers already struggling to find jobs will fare worse if and when the number of openings plummet and the number of unemployed job seekers climbs.
The fact that there are so many Americans still struggling highlights the opportunity President Trump and Republicans missed when they slashed taxes for corporations, businesses and the wealthy, rather than, say, shoring up social safety net accounts, investing in economic development in marginalized communities, funding worker training programs to help them transition to more stable jobs — or even just paying off some of the nation’s debt.
Instead, of course, Republicans promised the working-class and poor would get their share as benefits trickled down in the form of a tax cut-fueled economic explosion. Whether that was a lie or a delusion doesn’t matter now. The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust.

Rolling Stone? LOL I'm not about to take any economic advice from Rolling Stone and whoever Tessa Stuart is

 

[jc456]

so like the bias democrats on the feds? hahahahaaha, your irony is noted.

"...bias democrats on the feds"

Huh?

Once again, you make zero sense. You're completely out of your league here, but you lack the intellectual wherewithal to see it.

Stay in your lane. Go listen to another talk radio podcast.
.

I follow advisers not idiots on message boards. What was consumer spending numbers at the end of july? you're the expert, did those numbers look good?

No such thing as an expert in my field.

They looked good, that's good news.

Now, let me know when you're ready to provide some intelligent, informed, independent thought.

I won't hold my breath.
.

What is Trump doing that is causing this?

Consumer confidence drops more than expected, reaching its lowest point in nearly two years
PUBLISHED TUE, JUN 25 2019 10:01 AM JUN 25 2019 11:21 AM EDT

The recovery is long in the tooth. Household debt is getting up there. Corporate debt is high and it's slowing capital spending. Global growth is slow. The trade mess hasn't helped.

It's always a combination of things. It could turn back up. Right now we don't know.
.

what are new home sales? how are mom and pop stores doing? Walmart stock is up today, so local sales are extremely well. there was an inversion in the bonds in 1995, was that a bad thing? were media outlets pushing recession while slick willie was in office?

Pushing recession narrative when only one marker has been identified as maybe a negative, isn't a sign of a recession especially when July figures for consumer spending were above expectations. that in itself points toward other factors. Like Europe's market and the issue around the globe with negative interest rates. Hong Kong even.