The stakes are higher for the GOP than they were in 1995

[JimH52]

This is a great article! A must read!

GOP?s grim shutdown legacy: How the 1995 debacle turned states blue - Salon.com

Demographic changes have today given the Democrats a small but real advantage at the presidential level, but overall the map is most notable for the near-total absence of real swing states.

This isn’t an accident. The events of the Clinton years gave the parties clearer ideological, cultural and demographic definition – and that definition has only been reinforced in the years since. Consequently, voters are far less likely to split their tickets now than they once were, which means that the vast majority of House members represent districts that voted for their party’s presidential candidate.

Which is all a long way of saying that even if Democrats “win” this shutdown, it may not be worth much for them politically.
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It’s plausible that “losing” the shutdown will erode this potential for the GOP. Maybe instead of gaining, say, a dozen seats they’ll end up settling for one or two. In that sense, sure, there could be a real price for them to pay in 2014. There could also be fallout for the party in Senate races, where the excesses of Tea Party-ism have already cost the GOP winnable races in 2010 and 2012 and could do so again next year. And when it comes to presidential politics, the shutdown figures only to reinforce the factors that have put the GOP at a slight but real disadvantage in national elections.

But for the Republicans who are already on Capitol Hill and who are deciding what to do next? For almost all of them, the only real electoral risk they’ll run next year is being seen as insufficiently conservative in a primary. In other words, the damage that the Republicans of the ‘90s did to their party’s appeal has helped create an environment that insulates the Republicans who hold office today.