Time to short Stocks!

[The Rabbi]

I thought QE2 was going to cause stock prices to rise? Now it's not enough?? ...:lol

Methinks it will never be "enough". Deflation is still out there like a gigantic snowball that is gaining speed and power as it flies down the hill. Before it is done we will have a crash and a lot of "snow" everywhere.....

I remain BEARISH.

I can't agree. The biggest drag has been uncertainty generated by the Democrats over future tax and regulation policies. Companies have been profitable but have not invested those profits. Now with the GOP having taken the House the Dems' agenda is in tatters and life can go on. This means more investment and corporate spending. I would look for increased M&A activity as companies pursue growth on the floor of the stock exchange.

 

[Gadawg73]

Time to short Rare Element Resources Ltd. (REE)

Thanks for this. I am up 30% due to shorting this stock.

These other numb nuts are a year ahead on property bottom. Gold has a years worth of upside. The most money is made at the end of a bubble, not at the beginning.

Very true but let us know the exact date of the end of the bubble and the lotto #s for the next power ball.
And tell us how much you are DOWN on some or the rest of the other stocks you short.If you are telling us you GAIN on all of your shorts then you are either not telling the truth or have only shorted ONE stock EVER. We always hear of the gains from you stockguys and never hear the total story which, if you are seriously in the market long term, ALWAYS includes loses.

Profits are profits. You do not make $ unless you sell. I have made almost 70K PROFIT this year, in a bad year, off of the land with about 7K total in expenses on it and 15% capital gains. About a 30% net gain in an off year and the land just sits there.
YOU hold and your capital gains might go up under new tax law or the stock may go down.
And how much $ at risk do you have shorting that stock? 200K, 300K?
If you do not have at least 250K in at risk investments such as this then the return is nil.
Call me a numb nut all you want but my long term returns on land will always add an additional 70K + yearly to my income with no risk.

 

[editec]

Corporations don't need tax breaks.

They need customers.

 

[topspin]

there will be a boom in the stock market and the economy, as stated major uncertainty on taxes has been removed.

 

[Toro]

Gold and silver are getting crushed. Gold had a $40 intra-day reversal today. Perhaps the Fed decision has been leaked and QE2 will be less than expected.

But I've seen this before, and it seems that pre-Fed meeting moves are as much wrong as they are right.

I am extremely worried that this will reinforce the STS cycle of buy after halloween day then sell in may and walk away. It sound like the money will be cutoff around the May options expiration date with catastrophic results, am I being alarmist?

QE2 is scheduled to end June 30. I wouldn't want to own any risk assets after that. The market started to fall in May literally a few days after QE1 ended, which was then exacerbated by the Greek fiasco. However, I'm sure it will be followed by QE3!

This market is going up primarily because of QE. Taxes and the election may be playing a small part, but it is almost entirely because of QE.

 

[Toro]

BTW, I covered all my shorts a week ago. For other accounts that had hedges, I eliminated them all. It's hard to see the market not being higher than it is now next year, unless there is some sort of unknown crisis just around the corner.

 

[william the wie]

Gold and silver are getting crushed. Gold had a $40 intra-day reversal today. Perhaps the Fed decision has been leaked and QE2 will be less than expected.

But I've seen this before, and it seems that pre-Fed meeting moves are as much wrong as they are right.

I am extremely worried that this will reinforce the STS cycle of buy after halloween day then sell in may and walk away. It sound like the money will be cutoff around the May options expiration date with catastrophic results, am I being alarmist?

QE2 is scheduled to end June 30. I wouldn't want to own any risk assets after that. The market started to fall in May literally a few days after QE1 ended, which was then exacerbated by the Greek fiasco. However, I'm sure it will be followed by QE3!

This market is going up primarily because of QE. Taxes and the election may be playing a small part, but it is almost entirely because of QE.

Other than LEAP straddles and precious metals both of which I am in, I don't see anything attractive out there. The continuing shrinkage of banking market share by traditional commercial/investment banks and foreclosure gate spawning putback lawsuits I'm not sure even total debt monetization and helicopters dropping money will work without causing currency collapse. A bad decade at blackrock does seem to be coming.

 

[KissMy]

Time to short Rare Element Resources Ltd. (REE)

Thanks for this. I am up 30% due to shorting this stock.

These other numb nuts are a year ahead on property bottom. Gold has a years worth of upside. The most money is made at the end of a bubble, not at the beginning.

Very true but let us know the exact date of the end of the bubble and the lotto #s for the next power ball.
And tell us how much you are DOWN on some or the rest of the other stocks you short.If you are telling us you GAIN on all of your shorts then you are either not telling the truth or have only shorted ONE stock EVER. We always hear of the gains from you stockguys and never hear the total story which, if you are seriously in the market long term, ALWAYS includes loses.

Profits are profits. You do not make $ unless you sell. I have made almost 70K PROFIT this year, in a bad year, off of the land with about 7K total in expenses on it and 15% capital gains. About a 30% net gain in an off year and the land just sits there.
YOU hold and your capital gains might go up under new tax law or the stock may go down.
And how much $ at risk do you have shorting that stock? 200K, 300K?
If you do not have at least 250K in at risk investments such as this then the return is nil.
Call me a numb nut all you want but my long term returns on land will always add an additional 70K + yearly to my income with no risk.

I covered my shorts on election day & piled heavy into Gold & Silver on the dip after the 2:15 QE2 announcement. I bought 3 houses last year & they are paying me with cash rents. Your vacant zoned lot plan pays nothing until you sell. After taxes, insurance & realtor fees take a chunk many years down the road you may have something. I would avoid vacant lots until January 2013. The mortgage crisis should end October-November 2012 so wait until the property taxes gets paid & buy vacant land in early 2013. Stick with foreclosed homes for now. If commodity prices skyrocket these homes are built from commodities. It may be prohibitively expensive to build new on vacant land by 2013. I will avoid vacant land until then when I can see some clarity.

 

[william the wie]

I am going to buy more LEAP straddles for Dec 11. I am clueless as to whether we are entering a 9500-11500 trading range on the Dow, taking off for 60K before the big blow off or headed for the twilight zone of finance.

 

[topspin]

the S&P 500 is very attractive here.

 

[Gadawg73]

Thanks for this. I am up 30% due to shorting this stock.

These other numb nuts are a year ahead on property bottom. Gold has a years worth of upside. The most money is made at the end of a bubble, not at the beginning.

Very true but let us know the exact date of the end of the bubble and the lotto #s for the next power ball.
And tell us how much you are DOWN on some or the rest of the other stocks you short.If you are telling us you GAIN on all of your shorts then you are either not telling the truth or have only shorted ONE stock EVER. We always hear of the gains from you stockguys and never hear the total story which, if you are seriously in the market long term, ALWAYS includes loses.

Profits are profits. You do not make $ unless you sell. I have made almost 70K PROFIT this year, in a bad year, off of the land with about 7K total in expenses on it and 15% capital gains. About a 30% net gain in an off year and the land just sits there.
YOU hold and your capital gains might go up under new tax law or the stock may go down.
And how much $ at risk do you have shorting that stock? 200K, 300K?
If you do not have at least 250K in at risk investments such as this then the return is nil.
Call me a numb nut all you want but my long term returns on land will always add an additional 70K + yearly to my income with no risk.

I covered my shorts on election day & piled heavy into Gold & Silver on the dip after the 2:15 QE2 announcement. I bought 3 houses last year & they are paying me with cash rents. Your vacant zoned lot plan pays nothing until you sell. After taxes, insurance & realtor fees take a chunk many years down the road you may have something. I would avoid vacant lots until January 2013. The mortgage crisis should end October-November 2012 so wait until the property taxes gets paid & buy vacant land in early 2013. Stick with foreclosed homes for now. If commodity prices skyrocket these homes are built from commodities. It may be prohibitively expensive to build new on vacant land by 2013. I will avoid vacant land until then when I can see some clarity.

I agree with you on the rental properties but been there, done that and with so many vacant homes on the market now the rents are way down. People are buying or waiting to buy and renting apartments at rock bottom prices. My son is renting a high end luxury 1 BR apartment in Buckhead, north of Atlanta at $800.00 a month.
I pay no real estate commissions as I develop myself. No insurance on vacant land, only taxes which are around 2K a year total for the undeveloped lots in this market.
I also agree with you on lots less than 1 acre. All of my lots are in estate subdivisions. I have received R-40 zoning (1 acre) but there is a foot print analysis which will make each lot about 1 1/3 acre each. Paid about 25K an acre 2 years ago for all of these new lots and sold a few at 80K an acre from the old lots 4 years ago. The land is beautiful, hard woods and wildlife everywhere and 3 miles off of the interstate I-575. 5 minutes from every convenience and 2 miles from a new regional hospital. I would not touch the foreclosed on postage stamp lots in those 200K cracker box subdivisions now. I agree that those are a dime a dozen here and everywhere.
I do not like having tenants as they friggin destroy your rental homes unless you are in the 500K+ rental home market. In this market a good %of them will be evicted anyway sogoodluck with that but if you can make it work then that is great.
I will sit and wait, hunt weekly on the property and enjoy having it as Ilive next to it! I bought the original 7 1/2 acres at $3850.00 an acre.

 

[Zander]

I am content to sit this out........

Now you might be thinking, Hey Zander, what is wrong with you? why not just get aggressive and join the rocket launch ride for a while and make some nice money in the short term?

Well, those who are buying all think they will be able to get out in time...... but they won't. History proves this to be true. On the initial pullback, they will feel a strong urge to "buy the dip" and add to their positions, not thinking the market has topped, but instead feeling like this is yet another great buying opportunity. WOOHOO!!!

They then find themselves wishing they were on the sidelines as the market accelerates to the downside, but they won't get out....... because they don't want to miss out on the rally that will get their losses back!!! Finally, at the market bottom, they give up and reason that the market will never come back again.

That is when I will be buying.....

Best of luck!

 

[Toro]

Did you cover your short?

 

[Zander]

Did you cover your short?

I did - I got nervous last week and took a small loss before they announced QE2.

 

[william the wie]

Zander you have explained my love of LEAP straddles I hate timing plays.

 

[KissMy]

GOLD!!!!!!!!!! $1408.00 per ozt & climbing.

 

[topspin]

Professionals can't time the market, I wouldn't expect hobbiest to be able to.
Invest in great companies for the long haul.

 

[Paulie]

Did you cover your short?

I did - I got nervous last week and took a small loss before they announced QE2.

Even though we knew QE2 was coming, you still chose to sit out the almost certain opportunity to make some cash.

What I'm learning about you here is that this market scares the shit out of you.

I don't blame you, but it would just be nice if you admitted it. You're playing it SO SAFE, that you're rationalizing missing out on all but guaranteed short term money.

As skittish as you are, I would think you would take profits on the first big 3% loss day. Who cares if everyone ELSE will miss the mark?

Shoot a little liquor and take a damn RISK!

 

[Toro]

I think that if someone isn't comfortable in something, one shouldn't invest in it. If Zander isn't comfortable investing in stocks right now, he shouldn't do it. That's the advice I would give anyone about any investment.

 

[Toro]

GOLD!!!!!!!!!! $1408.00 per ozt & climbing.

WHOA! Cheering is bad.