Time to short Stocks!

[rdking647]

pre election/fed meeting caution. Im long stocks but also own some puts as a hedge

 

[Zander]

I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.

Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF at $28.08.

Best of luck!

why buy the etf when you can just buy spy puts. instead of 100 shares at 28.08 which costs 2800 you can buy 1 spy at the money put expiring in december for 350 or so. if the market has the big crash before the third week of december your golden.

Out of the money Options lose value over time even if the market is trending in your direction. With an inverse ETF I have no "time" limit.

 

[Toro]

I have been in cash for the last year with no regrets. Now I think the topping process is done and we are set for a major decline in stock prices.

Today I bought shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF at $28.08.

Best of luck!

why buy the etf when you can just buy spy puts. instead of 100 shares at 28.08 which costs 2800 you can buy 1 spy at the money put expiring in december for 350 or so. if the market has the big crash before the third week of december your golden.

Out of the money Options lose value over time even if the market is trending in your direction. With an inverse ETF I have no "time" limit.

But you do have decay. If it takes too long to play out, you can still lose money, even if the trade goes your way.

 

[Zander]

why buy the etf when you can just buy spy puts. instead of 100 shares at 28.08 which costs 2800 you can buy 1 spy at the money put expiring in december for 350 or so. if the market has the big crash before the third week of december your golden.

Out of the money Options lose value over time even if the market is trending in your direction. With an inverse ETF I have no "time" limit.

But you do have decay. If it takes too long to play out, you can still lose money, even if the trade goes your way.

True, but decay is a much slower process. An Out of the money "put" option starts declining pretty rapidly in a sideways market.

 

[Toro]

Out of the money Options lose value over time even if the market is trending in your direction. With an inverse ETF I have no "time" limit.

But you do have decay. If it takes too long to play out, you can still lose money, even if the trade goes your way.

True, but decay is a much slower process. An Out of the money "put" option starts declining pretty rapidly in a sideways market.

They decline slowly at the beginning and accelerate at the end. So the more certain you are, the shorter the time frame, and vice-versa.

But whatever you're comfortable with is what you should invest in.

 

[Gadawg73]

I M telling you younguns:
In 1974 I bought raw land and held for 10 years. Made a killing in '84 before the S&L "crisis".
After that went heavy in utilities and big box home improvement stocks. Cashed that out for a load from late 90s through 2006.
The market and precious metals are for dummies. Metals great for short term hedge against inflation but where is there any inflation? Gold was $800 an ounce in 1982. Do not drink the Kool Aid, but if you have it now SELL and take your profits.
Raw land, buy it up and wait. I have 700K in 17 high end lots that were going for 110K each a lot 3 years ago. Just sold 2 for 60K each and the market HAS bottomed in zoned and build ready lots. Yes, it is a wait game but the profits are there and they are very good. Plenty of inventory and BANKS hold 90% of that. Shooting fish in a barrell.
Or play the market with 50K here and there for chump change at best IF you are lucky.

 

[Toro]

US raw land is the cheapest investment in the world that I know of right now.

 

[william the wie]

I have to go through a sale of division first but I have a keystone property for an assisted living complex in Dadeville AL. Talk to me in about six months my AL real estate lawyer went to the hospital today with what I suspect is walking pneumonia. I have to wait until she recovers to go forward and that may be a while.

 

[KissMy]

I M telling you younguns:
In 1974 I bought raw land and held for 10 years. Made a killing in '84 before the S&L "crisis".
After that went heavy in utilities and big box home improvement stocks. Cashed that out for a load from late 90s through 2006.
The market and precious metals are for dummies. Metals great for short term hedge against inflation but where is there any inflation? Gold was $800 an ounce in 1982. Do not drink the Kool Aid, but if you have it now SELL and take your profits.
Raw land, buy it up and wait. I have 700K in 17 high end lots that were going for 110K each a lot 3 years ago. Just sold 2 for 60K each and the market HAS bottomed in zoned and build ready lots. Yes, it is a wait game but the profits are there and they are very good. Plenty of inventory and BANKS hold 90% of that. Shooting fish in a barrell.
Or play the market with 50K here and there for chump change at best IF you are lucky.

I don't think land has bottomed yet. Usually houses bottom first & then land. Also a home is land plus other commodities assembled to create a revenue stream called rent. Land does not create a revenue stream unless it can be rented or farmed. Neither of those can be done with zoned and build ready lots. Tax & insurance is the only revenue stream this land will generate & that goes to insurance companies & government. There is no tax or liability insurance on Gold. After houses rise for a while & building resumes then these lots will be worth while.

I have been waiting for a trade war or a Carter style grain embargo to make farm & raw land plummet before I jump in & buy it up. The Carter grain embargo in 1979 caused farm land to plummet 75% in about a year.

 

[The Rabbi]

I know of Silver Wheaton. Good company.

I've been buying back gold and silver, and will add to my position if they fall back into support.

Market looked tired today. Acted like it was topping.

The only thing topping is Barney Frank. Gold and Silver are massively over valued and their prices will fall. Stocks will rise, probbaly after a short correction.

 

[topspin]

I agree with the land point, I totally dissagree that the stock market is not good. The S&P 500 is the rotating of the top 500 companies in the country. They can't suck long term and have land going up. Land will go up with the demand side having the money to buy it.

 

[Gadawg73]

I agree with the land point, I totally dissagree that the stock market is not good. The S&P 500 is the rotating of the top 500 companies in the country. They can't suck long term and have land going up. Land will go up with the demand side having the money to buy it.

You argument is a strong one and is supported by 50 years of market data.
The debt changes all of that now for American corporations. Consumers have less $$.

 

[topspin]

Incomes are growing especially among the upper classes, and they are the ones who spend the bulk of the $.

 

[KissMy]

Time to short Rare Element Resources Ltd. (REE)

Thanks for this. I am up 30% due to shorting this stock.

These other numb nuts are a year ahead on property bottom. Gold has a years worth of upside. The most money is made at the end of a bubble, not at the beginning.

 

[topspin]

the republican landslide will be good for stocks

 

[KissMy]

All eyes on the Fed's 2:15PM QE2 announcement. I think this lame duck period will give the Fed cover to print a huge pile of cash. This will be larger than consensus expectation. Go for the GOLD.

 

[Toro]

Gold and silver are getting crushed. Gold had a $40 intra-day reversal today. Perhaps the Fed decision has been leaked and QE2 will be less than expected.

But I've seen this before, and it seems that pre-Fed meeting moves are as much wrong as they are right.

 

[KissMy]

QE2 was a bit light. $75 Billion per month until they hit $600 Billion instead of over $100 Billion per month until they hit $1 Trillion. $500 Billion was baked into asset prices. Looks like we go sideways.

 

[Zander]

I thought QE2 was going to cause stock prices to rise? Now it's not enough?? ...:lol

Methinks it will never be "enough". Deflation is still out there like a gigantic snowball that is gaining speed and power as it flies down the hill. Before it is done we will have a crash and a lot of "snow" everywhere.....

I remain BEARISH.

 

[william the wie]

Gold and silver are getting crushed. Gold had a $40 intra-day reversal today. Perhaps the Fed decision has been leaked and QE2 will be less than expected.

But I've seen this before, and it seems that pre-Fed meeting moves are as much wrong as they are right.

I am extremely worried that this will reinforce the STS cycle of buy after halloween day then sell in may and walk away. It sound like the money will be cutoff around the May options expiration date with catastrophic results, am I being alarmist?