Top election data analyst says Trump’s odds of winning have suddenly surged - but can’t explain why

[Mashmont]

A data scientist who constructed a model to predict who will win the 2024 presidential election says Donald Trump has surged ahead in the last week.

Dr Thomas Miller from Northwestern University runs a website called The Virtual Tout, where he posts daily electoral vote forecasts. He also maps these predictions onto a graph with a timeline of major events that could sway voters – such as the July 13 assassination attempt against Trump and the October 1 debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz.

At the end of last month Miller placed Kamala Harris ahead of Trump – on September 30 she was predicted to take 308 electoral votes and Trump just 230.

However, after a week of Democrat numbers dropping, on October 7 the Republican took the lead with 270 to Harris’ 268.

Top election data analyst says Trump’s odds of winning have suddenly surged - but can’t explain why

Dr Thomas Miller modelling shows Trump’s predicted Electoral College votes have risen in the last 10 days from 230 to 275

www.yahoo.com

Guys, this is from the leftwing site, The Independent.

A number of reasons stand out to me:

1. Vance absolutely buried Walz in the debate last week.
2. The hurricanes and lack of FEMA funding has illustrated how inept the Harris administration is. Her sniping at DeSantis won't help.
3. The war in the Middle East. People don't trust Harris to be tough.
4. Harris has a history of fading after a quick start when people see how silly, vapid, and incompetent she is.
5. The pro-abortion sentiment in this country turned out to be dramatically over-hyped.

 

[JGalt]

I love watching as the Democrat's "joy" slowly turns into mud.

 

[shockedcanadian]

Americans will decide if they preferred Biden/Harris four years over Trumps four years prior.

That is all.

 

[lafayette]

 

[Doc7505]

View attachment 1024655

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Indeed, choosing Biden over Trump in 2021 was a big mistake, repeating by by electing the Harris/Walz ticket would be adding insult to injury...

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

A data scientist who constructed a model to predict who will win the 2024 presidential election says Donald Trump has surged ahead in the last week.

Dr Thomas Miller from Northwestern University runs a website called The Virtual Tout, where he posts daily electoral vote forecasts. He also maps these predictions onto a graph with a timeline of major events that could sway voters – such as the July 13 assassination attempt against Trump and the October 1 debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz.

At the end of last month Miller placed Kamala Harris ahead of Trump – on September 30 she was predicted to take 308 electoral votes and Trump just 230.

However, after a week of Democrat numbers dropping, on October 7 the Republican took the lead with 270 to Harris’ 268.

Top election data analyst says Trump’s odds of winning have suddenly surged - but can’t explain why

Dr Thomas Miller modelling shows Trump’s predicted Electoral College votes have risen in the last 10 days from 230 to 275

www.yahoo.com

Guys, this is from the leftwing site, The Independent.

A number of reasons stand out to me:

1. Vance absolutely buried Walz in the debate last week.
2. The hurricanes and lack of FEMA funding has illustrated how inept the Harris administration is. Her sniping at DeSantis won't help.
3. The war in the Middle East. People don't trust Harris to be tough.
4. Harris has a history of fading after a quick start when people see how silly, vapid, and incompetent she is.
5. The pro-abortion sentiment in this country turned out to be dramatically over-hyped.

Could it be because the nation sees that Harris and Walz are useless losers?

 

[jwoodie]

I think the "undecideds" are finally starting to pay attention. The demonization of Trump is old news, and the idea of Harris/Walz running the country is preposterous.

 

[imawhosure]

A data scientist who constructed a model to predict who will win the 2024 presidential election says Donald Trump has surged ahead in the last week.

Dr Thomas Miller from Northwestern University runs a website called The Virtual Tout, where he posts daily electoral vote forecasts. He also maps these predictions onto a graph with a timeline of major events that could sway voters – such as the July 13 assassination attempt against Trump and the October 1 debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz.

At the end of last month Miller placed Kamala Harris ahead of Trump – on September 30 she was predicted to take 308 electoral votes and Trump just 230.

However, after a week of Democrat numbers dropping, on October 7 the Republican took the lead with 270 to Harris’ 268.

Top election data analyst says Trump’s odds of winning have suddenly surged - but can’t explain why

Dr Thomas Miller modelling shows Trump’s predicted Electoral College votes have risen in the last 10 days from 230 to 275

www.yahoo.com

Guys, this is from the leftwing site, The Independent.

A number of reasons stand out to me:

1. Vance absolutely buried Walz in the debate last week.
2. The hurricanes and lack of FEMA funding has illustrated how inept the Harris administration is. Her sniping at DeSantis won't help.
3. The war in the Middle East. People don't trust Harris to be tough.
4. Harris has a history of fading after a quick start when people see how silly, vapid, and incompetent she is.
5. The pro-abortion sentiment in this country turned out to be dramatically over-hyped.

Dude, I was in the polling business for YEARS, don't believe me? Ask Macadoozy, lol.

Reality is------------->there actually was a very small point in time, where Kamala actually did take the lead in electoral votes. That point is long, long, gone. Done, forget about it!

In every swing state but 1, (and that one is NOT Penn) Trump is winning handily, if you accept what pollsters put forth as handily, which is 2 points above the margin of error.

Now that by no means should tell you Trump has won, and it is in the bag. If GOPers just sit home and watch the returns, they are going to be upset, lol. If they vote, Moo-Moo Kamala has next to zero chance. Polls tell us this, especially the internal polls from both candidates. You can look those internal polls up, much to the chagrin of a Leftist known as MAMMY, (aka Mamooth) who suggested I had no idea what I was talking about.

If you....the conservatives, GOP, and Independents vote, they are going to be wiped out........polls say so, and even Kamala and the Dems know it. So how bad do you want this to happen?

They can NOT defeat you if you vote............every number says that is a true statement. Therefore, it is on you! If for any reason other than a disaster in your family you do not vote; if they win, look in the mirror if you are pissed.

LOOK at the voting numbers in 2020! The MAJORITY of our votes came on voting day; we all showed up. Now look at theirs. Regardless if you believe their votes were legit or not, they all came in through the mail. It won't be that way THIS TIME. They are going to have to get off their LEFTIST ass**, and saunter down to the polling booth, lol.

I got a buck 3.80 that says------------->LEFTIST votes are going to drop by between 15 and 20%! I am NOT going to claim it is because they CHEATED last time, nor will I proclaim because they are LAZY-) What I will say, is that it is going to happen!

 

[jwoodie]

LOOK at the voting numbers in 2020! The MAJORITY of our votes came on voting day; we all showed up.

According to Pew Research, 35% of Trump supporters voted on election day, as opposed to 17% of Biden supporters. That is why Trump received 10 million more votes than Biden did on that day. However, the unprecedented (and unverified) mail/drop off vote gave Biden a 15 million vote advantage.

This time, Trump supporters need to vote in such large numbers that the Democrats can't produce enough fake ballots to steal the election.

 

[Independent thinker]

A data scientist who constructed a model to predict who will win the 2024 presidential election says Donald Trump has surged ahead in the last week.

Dr Thomas Miller from Northwestern University runs a website called The Virtual Tout, where he posts daily electoral vote forecasts. He also maps these predictions onto a graph with a timeline of major events that could sway voters – such as the July 13 assassination attempt against Trump and the October 1 debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz.

At the end of last month Miller placed Kamala Harris ahead of Trump – on September 30 she was predicted to take 308 electoral votes and Trump just 230.

However, after a week of Democrat numbers dropping, on October 7 the Republican took the lead with 270 to Harris’ 268.

Top election data analyst says Trump’s odds of winning have suddenly surged - but can’t explain why

Dr Thomas Miller modelling shows Trump’s predicted Electoral College votes have risen in the last 10 days from 230 to 275

www.yahoo.com

Guys, this is from the leftwing site, The Independent.

A number of reasons stand out to me:

1. Vance absolutely buried Walz in the debate last week.
2. The hurricanes and lack of FEMA funding has illustrated how inept the Harris administration is. Her sniping at DeSantis won't help.
3. The war in the Middle East. People don't trust Harris to be tough.
4. Harris has a history of fading after a quick start when people see how silly, vapid, and incompetent she is.
5. The pro-abortion sentiment in this country turned out to be dramatically over-hyped.

I think a lot of people somewhere in the middle, who are having a very hard time making ends meet, have noticed that Harris is doing nothing but softball interviews with her friends while Trump is going everywhere, including a debate with the moderators stacked against him. And they also noticed from the Vance, Walz debate where, again, the moderators themselves broke the rules for political gain, that Vance was not the person the MSM had led them to believe.

 

[lafayette]

Could it be because the nation sees that Harris and Walz are useless losers?

Or your side is lying yet again?

 

[lafayette]

According to Pew Research, 35% of Trump supporters voted on election day, as opposed to 17% of Biden supporters. That is why Trump received 10 million more votes than Biden did on that day. However, the unprecedented (and unverified) mail/drop off vote gave Biden a 15 million vote advantage.

This time, Trump supporters need to vote in such large numbers that the Democrats can't produce enough fake ballots to steal the election.

Pew research said Biden won fairly.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Or your side is lying yet again?

When my side points out the idiocy of Harris and Walz, it's the truth.

 

[lafayette]

We are watching Trump in real time descend into madness, yet Todd defends him

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

We are watching Trump in real time descend into madness, yet Todd defends him

Harris and Walz are idiots. True story.

 

[lafayette]

They are normal people, while Trump descends into madness in front of our eyes.

 

[my2¢]

I would guess it is people becoming familiar with Harris through her ads that push the standard tax the rich crap which hasn't resulted in any victory over poverty for so many.