Faun
Diamond Member
- Nov 14, 2011
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LOLOLLOLShe won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points and on average, the polls predicted she would win it by 3.2 percentage points. That's pretty damn close.FroThe polls said Clinton would win the popular vote, and that's all the polls said. Did she?
A lot of the State polls were way off as well....and those are the ones that mattered, Most national polls had her up 3-5%, and she won the national vote by around 2%.
And all these numbers are combinations of multiple polls taken in multiple places, with much higher sample counts, and a simple binary answer (who to vote for)
They don't include a "how you feel" question involving approval or how you think he's doing his job.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
They also over-counted the vote % for each of them by about 2% each, for another 4% of "meh"
They predicted Hillary would win by 3.2 points and she won by 2.1 points. There is no "another 4%."
From one of your fellow travelers
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Johnson (L) Stein (G) Spread
Final Results -- -- -- 48.2 46.1 3.3 1.1 Clinton +2.1
RCP Average 11/2 - 11/7 -- 45.5 42.2 4.7 1.9 Clinton +3.3
My mistake was using over-counted instead of under-counted. Clinton got 3% more than the polls figured she would, Trump 4%, so you have to account for their error with over-estimating Johnson/Stein support, and of course the undecideds right before the election (of which i was one of). Then you have to determine of the undecideds, how many voted and how many decided to just stay home.
All this leads to me continuing my disdain for polling in general unless it's like a 70-30 and above split.
No matter how you shake it .... the average of the polls predicted she would win by 3.2 points and she actually won by 2.1 points.