Ukraine, Losing In Donbass...

[ESay]

I agree that the war ending in a stalemate is most likely. I sure hope that a peace can be arranged sooner rather than later. The problem of Crimea and Donbas will make a treaty end to the war extrembly difficult, however — there is a good chance there will be numerous ceasefires followed by further war.

The only way I see that Ukraine might be totally victorious and gain Crimea and all of Donbas is if Putin is overthrown. Under certain circumstances the huge Russian Federation may even break apart into several parts. There is at least some possibility of this due to centrifugal forces in huge Russia itself. The Russian tendency to worship strong leaders and a strong state itself is a reflection of the brittleness of Russia’s political order. Russia’s population (Ukrainian population too) has been declining catastrophically for a long while now. Russia may not survive as a giant unitary state another political “civil war” between we saw when the CP was defeated. I just mention this as a possibility, not as the most likely outcome.

Korean scenario, I think, the most likely. Active fighting stops on some line (the current frontline with some variations maybe). Russia doesn't negotiate the status of the occupied areas; Ukraine doesn't recognise them a part of Russia. No peace agreement is signed.

Yes, turning back the occupied lands would be possible when/if Russia goes through social crisis like 1917 or 1991. But Crimea is even more complicated. I think that the Turks have their own view on it.

 

[Toro]

Russia’s Wagner Group advances in Donbas, captures much of Soledar

Russian paramilitaries are thought to have captured a large swath of the salt-mining town of Soledar, Tuesday, following months of bloody fighting in the area surrounding the eastern city of Bakhmu…

www.google.com

Wagner group is crushing Uke resistance...

30,000 Wagnerites have been killed for about five miles of territory.

Keep whoring for Russia, anti-American fascist.

 

[Toro]

 

[Toro]

Thanks for the comedic post....

But no, I don't have any affinity for Putin /Russia per se.
Nor do I feel any alleged debt you claim Islam owes Russia?
(that's something I've never heard before) lol
Although, I do like Russia's political stance against western globalism.
I've no skin in the game for either side of the Ukraine war.
As a 3rd generation US Army veteran and armchair military historian.
My opinion concerning the war is objective based.
And not swayed by media propaganda from either side.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

OMG!!!!!!....... send them more money fast!!!

 

[Toro]

Look at who the fascist anti-American losers are whoring for

 

[Toro]

OMG!!!!!!....... send them more money fast!!!

Faster!

 

[Toro]

 

[Toro]

 

[Toro]

 

[Toro]

 

[ESay]

View attachment 747618

The map of 08.09 is outdated now, because Russia has lost territories since then. But Russia is winning, you know.

 

[beagle9]

You think there is a point in negotiation with Putin? Okay, what demands or proposals would you put on the table if you were say SoS?

I'd put on the table the lifting of sanctions if Russia back's off in order to negotiate an end to the war with Ukraine. That's a huge bargaining start to end the situation, and I'd talk with our allie's about cutting a deal with the sanctions if Russia will back off, and put an end to operations in Ukraine.

 

[AlexanderPK]

The only way I see that Ukraine might be totally victorious and gain Crimea and all of Donbas is if Putin is overthrown.

Where do you, Ukrainian lovers, get this stupid idea that Putin can be overthrown? A friend of mine was an ardent, shell I say, opposer of his before the SMO, but ever since it started he's been his great supporter having forgotten all the issues he had and he's not the only one acting like this. The so called intellectuals, liberal scumbags have fled the country and are impotently barking now from behind the fence. He's overwhelmingly supported by people and the only distrust that he might meet would be if he chose to quit the thing and start some negotiations with the Uke bastards. The unconditional surrender is the only option for Hohols.

 

[beagle9]

I agree that the war ending in a stalemate is most likely. I sure hope that a peace can be arranged sooner rather than later. The problem of Crimea and Donbas will make a treaty end to the war extrembly difficult, however — there is a good chance there will be numerous ceasefires followed by further war.

The only way I see that Ukraine might be totally victorious and gain Crimea and all of Donbas is if Putin is overthrown. Under certain circumstances the huge Russian Federation may even break apart into several parts. There is at least some possibility of this due to centrifugal forces in huge Russia itself. The Russian tendency to worship strong leaders and a strong state itself is a reflection of the brittleness of Russia’s political order. Russia’s population (Ukrainian population too) has been declining catastrophically for a long while now. Russia may not survive as a giant unitary state another political “civil war” between we saw when the CP was defeated. I just mention this as a possibility, not as the most likely outcome.

You talk as if Russia doesn't have a structured nuclear program, nuclear subs, a star wars technology, and other major modern day technologies that help to hold the nation together in war, and for security purposes. At those level's Russia still has it's trump card's to play. Ignoring that hand as if it doesn't exist is pure incompetence on our part.

 

[beagle9]

The map of 08.09 is outdated now, because Russia has lost territories since then. But Russia is winning, you know.

Might be losing in the skirmishes here and/or there, but Russia isn't losing the war that it started yet, because it isn't retreating back across to it's border for the safety of it's border yet. Makes sense right ?

 

[AlexanderPK]

Toro Half the Canada are descendants of the not finished off properly Banderites so your stance is understandable. The bullet between your granddad's ears would have solved today's problem with Ukraine, too bad Stalin was soft on you.

 

[beagle9]

View attachment 747613

Be kind to those who are your enemy, and you shall heap coal's of fire upon their head's, otherwise if they refuse your kindness and continue on. God is our ultimate strength, and he will protect us if we ask him too. Negotiations are a form of strength (the strongest form), and if we operate in the negotiations therefore allowing God to lead us in our diplomacy, then we will reep the rewards by gaining cooperation and some much needed help in the deals.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Where do you, Ukrainian lovers, get this stupid idea that Putin can be overthrown? A friend of mine was an ardent, shell I say, opposer of his before the SMO, but ever since it started he's been his great supporter having forgotten all the issues he had and he's not the only one acting like this. The so called intellectuals, liberal scumbags have fled the country and are impotently barking now from behind the fence. He's overwhelmingly supported by people and the only distrust that he might meet would be if he chose to quit the thing and start some negotiations with the Uke bastards. The unconditional surrender is the only option for Hohols.

I’ve spent a lot of time arguing with Ukrainian nationalists this year … who think Putin will likely be overthrown. Even Saddam Hussein, supported by the Sunni minority of his country, survived for many decades based on his security forces. So I don’t say it is likely, only possible, Putin will be removed. He may be assassinated or die of rumored disease.

I certainly don’t expect the “liberal” dissidents will suddenly come to power. That is impossible. Another “strongman” from the siloviki may come to power, or factions may fight among themselves, for example the military vs. Putin’s security police. Or mafias will arise again and rule whole industries and cities.

One of the few non-security services “national leaders” who could be chosen as a compromise leader — if he survives at all — might be the jailed but patriotic & non-liberal “anti-corruption” dissident Navalny. He came out opposing Putin’s war and would be a good front man for security services who want to end the war. Anything is possible once Putin is out of the picture.

The Russian chauvinist population is not decisive. There is no “civil society” by which they can mobilize themselves, though they certainly can be manipulated. Many share almost fascist values, it is true.

But even the ordinary workers who are now chauvinists and convinced Russian imperialists can ultimately tire of chaos and abuse, failure and pointless war. The Ukrainians were supposed to be a brotherly people, and produced many Soviet leaders like Brezhnev. At a certain point what we saw in 1991 in Moscow leading may repeat itself.

The governors of far off provinces and Siberian cities, and the citizens there, will also not remain forever loyal to Moscow if it proves unable to rule and provide necessary economic support. Moscow cannot exactly nuke Vladivostok.

 

[AlexanderPK]

I’ve spent a lot of time arguing with Ukrainian nationalists this year … who think Putin will likely be overthrown. Even Saddam Hussein, supported by the Sunni minority of his country, survived for many decades based on his security forces. So I don’t say it is likely, only possible, Putin will be removed. He may be assassinated or die of rumored disease.

I certainly don’t expect the “liberal” dissidents will suddenly come to power. That is impossible. Another “strongman” from the siloviki may come to power, or factions may fight among themselves, for example the military vs. Putin’s security police. Or mafias will arise again and rule whole industries and cities.

One of the few non-security services “national leaders” who could be chosen as a compromise leader — if he survives at all — might be the jailed but patriotic & non-liberal “anti-corruption” dissident Navalny. He came out opposing Putin’s war and would be a good front man for security services who want to end the war. Anything is possible once Putin is out of the picture.

The Russian chauvinist population is not decisive. There is no “civil society” by which they can mobilize themselves, though they certainly can be manipulated. Many share almost fascist values, it is true.

But even the ordinary workers who are now chauvinists and convinced Russian imperialists can ultimately tire of chaos and abuse, failure and pointless war. The Ukrainians were supposed to be a brotherly people, and produced many Soviet leaders like Brezhnev. At a certain point what we saw in 1991 in Moscow leading up to 1991 may repeat itself.

The governors of far off provinces and Siberian cities, and the citizens there, will also not remain forever loyal to Moscow if it proves unable to rule and provide necessary economic support. Moscow cannot exactly nuke Vladivostok.

The mere fact that you mentioned Navalny ruins all the theories you came up with once and for all. The fucker has long since been forgotten and not mentioned here ever. Nobody gives a shit about him, at all! You give an impression of being an educated man but this shit concerning Russia astounds me by its sheer out of touchness with the real life.