Ukraine switched to professional war

[Silver Cat]

Russia does not stand, it has been retreating VERY FAST in all directions for about three weeks now, on the southern front they have broken through the first echelon. Problems with the supply of the southern group is growing like a snowball.

Ukrainians in the shortest time passed from the Urozhaynoye to Tokmak. They are now 10 km from Tokmok and are building an operational encirclement. There are no more than 100 km left to Mariupol and Melitopol, now they can be freely attacked from Hymers. All land transport hubs can be broken now. The southern group is de facto already in operational encirclement.

Wow, wow, wow. And who said that? Voices in your head or CNN freaks? Can you demonstrate any prove of your statements?

 

[rupol2000]

According to the Ukrainian experts, they do not expect much resistance on the second line. They claim that the first line was the strongest, and a very strong concentration of mines. This created many problems, but they believe that the most difficult stage has already been passed. The Russians are running out of supplies, they have not been able to significantly strengthen the defense of the Zaporizhzhya theater.

 

[Silver Cat]

According to the Ukrainian experts, they do not expect much resistance on the second line. They claim that the first line was the strongest, and a very strong concentration of mines. This created many problems, but they believe that the most difficult stage has already been passed. The Russians are running out of supplies, they have not been able to significantly strengthen the defense of the Zaporizhzhya theater.

And those "Ukrainian experts", are they actual human beings or just a fruit of your imagination?

 

[rupol2000]

I think it is anybody's call which side will prevail in this expensive and excessive deadly and totally unnecessary war. But I think this Washington Examiner piece posted 5 days ago probably is the closest thing to an accurate analysis we are going to be able to find.

Bottom line: It's anybody's guess which side will ultimately prevail.

In addition, during this time they carried out several successful raids and defeated the rear of the enemy.

 

[rupol2000]

And those "Ukrainian experts",

I mainly listen to Colonel Roman Svitan, he gives competent assessments.

 

[JohnDB]

Russia does not stand, it has been retreating VERY FAST in all directions for about three weeks now, on the southern front they have broken through the first echelon. Problems with the supply of the southern group is growing like a snowball.

Ukrainians in the shortest time passed from the Urozhaynoye to Tokmak. They are now 10 km from Tokmok and are building an operational encirclement. There are no more than 100 km left to Mariupol and Melitopol, now they can be freely attacked from Hymers. All land transport hubs can be broken now. The southern group is de facto already in operational encirclement.

It's a LONG way to Tokmok....hate to say that but it's true....especially in asymmetrical warfare where spec ops are the driving force. Doesn't mean they won't do it or be successful in that...but it's gonna take a minute...and winter is steadily moving closer and closer all the time. The Russians don't have winter gear either...just saying. Long way home to get your coat if you are a Russian.

But I do believe that Russia is out of "surprises"....unless they have a HUGE mobilization and even that won't hold because of the lack of training for coordination. So we'll see what fall brings in a bit.

 

[rupol2000]

Can you demonstrate any prove of your statements?

there is a lot of documentary filming, in fact, Moscow does not deny these facts. Moscow simply does not say anything about the Zaporozhye direction.

Yesterday they posted amateur footage on the phone. Yesterday, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were still 50-60 km from Tokmаk and fired at it only with Himers, a mass evacuation was announced there yesterday. It's fixed.

All the materials are there, but I watch everything in Russian.

 

[rupol2000]

It's a LONG way to Tokmok....hate to say that but it's true....especially in asymmetrical warfare where spec ops are the driving force.

According to the latest data, Tokmok is already surrounded.

 

[Silver Cat]

I mainly listen to Colonel Roman Svitan, he gives competent assessments.

Really? Are you kidding? The man who was born in Donetsk region in Soviet Ukraine, who was a test pilot in Soviet Union (not an actual battle officer), who was captured by Separatists in 2014, highly likely recruited by GRU or FSB, and then realized by them? And do consider his as a reliable source of information?

 

[rupol2000]

It's a LONG way to Tokmok....hate to say that but it's true....especially in asymmetrical warfare where spec ops are the driving force. Doesn't mean they won't do it or be successful in that...but it's gonna take a minute...and winter is steadily moving closer and closer all the time. The Russians don't have winter gear either...just saying. Long way home to get your coat if you are a Russian.

But I do believe that Russia is out of "surprises"....unless they have a HUGE mobilization and even that won't hold because of the lack of training for coordination. So we'll see what fall brings in a bit.

A large mobilization is unlikely because the regime fears revolution from within. They are trying not to shake the situation, besides, the economy is experiencing a huge shortage of personnel. There is a possibility that part of the Russian troops will join the collaborationists or go over to the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

With winter sets of clothes there will be no problems. But there are problems with normal protective equipment. They were from the very beginning, they bought body armor with their own money. The Ministry of Defense has winter clothes.

 

[Silver Cat]

According to the latest data, Tokmok is already surrounded.

He didn't said that.

 

[rupol2000]

Really? Are you kidding? The man who was born in Donetsk region in Soviet Ukraine, who was a test pilot in Soviet Union (not an actual battle officer), who was captured by Separatists in 2013, highly likely recruited by GRU or FSB, and then realized by them? And do consider his as a reliable source of information?

Yes, he tells everything exactly as an expert, without false optimism. He objectively describes the situation, and talks directly about the military aspect, in terms of tactical actions.

In fact, there are no professional reviews at all from the Kremlin propaganda side with references to military experts and data from the Ministry of Defense

 

[rupol2000]

He didn't said that.

It's in the title

 

[rupol2000]

He didn't said that.

I was not accurate. Yes, this is not an encirclement yet, I meant that an encirclement operation is underway, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are coming in from 3 sides and cutting off supply routes.

 

[Silver Cat]

It's in the title

No. It is not.

СВИТАН: ВСУ неожиданно пошли в обход! Токмак ОКРУЖАТ с трех сторон, русским ПЕРЕБЬЮТ пути отхода​

"Okruzhat" is future tense.

Google translation:
-----
SVITAN: APU suddenly went around! Tokmak WILL be surrounded from three sides, the Russians WILL kill the escape routes
------
First part of Google translation is correct, second is wrong. "The Russian escape routes will be blocked".

 

[rupol2000]

No. It is not.

СВИТАН: ВСУ неожиданно пошли в обход! Токмак ОКРУЖАТ с трех сторон, русским ПЕРЕБЬЮТ пути отхода​

"Okruzhat" is future tense.

Google translation:
-----
SVITAN: APU suddenly went around! Tokmak WILL be surrounded from three sides, the Russians WILL kill the escape routes
------
First part of Google translation is correct, second is wrong. "The Russian escape routes will be blocked".

Yes, I was a little hasty. I meant: there is an operation to encircle Tokmak.

 

[Silver Cat]

I was not accurate. Yes, this is not an encirclement yet, I meant that an encirclement operation is underway, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are coming in from 3 sides and cutting off supply routes.

They are not coming and they did not even reach the first line of Russian defense yet. Rabotino is in the forefield.

What is worse - the fall (with mudslides) is coming, and any significant offensive operations will be hardly possible.

 

[rupol2000]

They are not coming and they did not even reach the first line of Russian defense yet. Rabotino is in the forefield.

Nonsense. Rabotino has already been completely liberated and cleared, the first front line has been broken through. It was already yesterday.

 

[rupol2000]

What is worse - the fall (with mudslides) is coming soon, and any significant offensive operations will be hardly possible.

If they continue the offensive at such a pace, they will reach Melitopol in a week and block the entire southern part of the Russian troops, half of the army will be in the cauldron. Kerch bridge destroyed. Only the "road" across the bay from Novorossiysk to Kerch will remain. But this area is controlled by sea drones.

 

[Silver Cat]

Nonsense. Rabotino has already been completely liberated and cleared, the first front line has been broken through. It was already yesterday.

The Russian defense lines are here:

Rabotino is here:

Rabotino and, then, Novoprokopovka are before the first line as you can see.