Unemployment rate drops to 7.4%

[Soggy in NOLA]

7.4% unemployment... the "new" normal in (D) la-la land.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Quite the contrary, it's GREAT news if you enjoy being deceived.

What am I being deceived about?

Have we not had 41 consecutive months of private sector job growth?

Did we not just add 160,000 jobs in June?

Is my business not up 18% year on year?

Is the economy not growing?

Horrible. All of it just horrible.

Because you're seeing only what you want to see instead of attempting to see what's actually happening (you know looking below the surface like a good economist is supposed to do), did you look at the LFP chart I posted? do you understand what it indicates? let me help you out , it indicates that people that should be working and that actually are working are on a trend to becoming an endangered species. It means that we are in an environment of ever increasing risk that the Fed with it's idiotic dual mandate (that was imposed on it) will be placed in a position of simultaneously having two diametrically opposed objectives, currency stability and employment stimulation, the Fed doesn't have any scalpels in it's toolbox it has hammers and chisels which means they won't be able to serve either objective without causing massive structural damage to the economy that will take years to repair.

It also means that given our ever increasing public debt and unfunded liability burden there will be literally NOTHING that politically feasible fiscal policy can do to break the vicious cycle, they will not have a productive labor force to tax in order to do anything meaningful, unless of course you think tripling the effective income tax rates on EVERYBODY is going fly.

So I ask you, how does the choice between hyper-inflation or REAL (not the fictional crap that you are quoting) unemployment rates that will make those of the great depression look like a picnic sound to you?

If you aren't worried about the long term health of the economy you are either not capable of understanding it or you are a master of self-deception.

I do not buy your take on the fed, the LFP nor the prospects for growth. When will the hyper-inflation hit us? Be honest, now. Have you predicted that we would already be hit by it? I look at data like this:

Leading Economic Indicators Unchanged in June - DailyFinance

......and I am optimistic. Not deceived. Optimistic.

Here. Read this. It might make you feel better.

Modern Monetary Theory Primer - New Economic Perspectives

And.......just so you know.......I am pretty much over your arrogant fucking tone. If you want to be treated with respect, I suggest you start offering it.

 

[drivebymedia]

The Markets are so excited about the U3 news that....

The DJIA and the S&P are both down as of now.

The Big Boys (Mutual Funds, etc) usually start hitting the Boards with their trades around 2:30PM - 3:00PM. But it's also Summer time. And August.

The Hot Shots, the real shakers and movers, they're on a ski vacation in Chile or at the Beach in the Hamptons or..... wherever. And the underlings that are doing the trading won't take any chances. They'll just go with the flow.

The main Decision Makers won't be back until after Labor Day. At the earliest.

And that's what I see happening today.

The people who vote with their dollars have given the news a great big 'Ho-Hum'

You're right, the junior traders are in command - and were told: "to avoid doing anything stupid, just don't do anything"!

Although the Cons seemed to have a glint in their eyes this morning, that maybe, just maybe - the markets would go down - for one, lousy, stinkin' day for crissakes!!

Hey, -8 is down, right?

 

[NightFox]

What am I being deceived about?

Have we not had 41 consecutive months of private sector job growth?

Did we not just add 160,000 jobs in June?

Is my business not up 18% year on year?

Is the economy not growing?

Horrible. All of it just horrible.

Because you're seeing only what you want to see instead of attempting to see what's actually happening (you know looking below the surface like a good economist is supposed to do), did you look at the LFP chart I posted? do you understand what it indicates? let me help you out , it indicates that people that should be working and that actually are working are on a trend to becoming an endangered species. It means that we are in an environment of ever increasing risk that the Fed with it's idiotic dual mandate (that was imposed on it) will be placed in a position of simultaneously having two diametrically opposed objectives, currency stability and employment stimulation, the Fed doesn't have any scalpels in it's toolbox it has hammers and chisels which means they won't be able to serve either objective without causing massive structural damage to the economy that will take years to repair.

It also means that given our ever increasing public debt and unfunded liability burden there will be literally NOTHING that politically feasible fiscal policy can do to break the vicious cycle, they will not have a productive labor force to tax in order to do anything meaningful, unless of course you think tripling the effective income tax rates on EVERYBODY is going fly.

So I ask you, how does the choice between hyper-inflation or REAL (not the fictional crap that you are quoting) unemployment rates that will make those of the great depression look like a picnic sound to you?

If you aren't worried about the long term health of the economy you are either not capable of understanding it or you are a master of self-deception.

I do not buy your take on the fed, the LFP nor the prospects for growth. When will the hyper-inflation hit us? Be honest, now. Have you predicted that we would already be hit by it?

You don't "buy" it (I suspect that buy isn't the proper term, that instead you are in fact just dismissing it out of hand) because it doesn't support outlook that you desire, I'm not trying to "predict" when , I'm stating that there is an ever increasing risk based on the data, this isn't my data and it's the same data that the Fed is looking at, the missing ingredient is the effects of monetary supply expansion hitting the general economy (price inflation and distribution effects), but if we really look we can start to see that already can't we? the fed sees it too .

I look at data like this:

Leading Economic Indicators Unchanged in June - DailyFinance

You're looking at a composite index that was sending nearly identical signals just prior to the last bubble collapse, again look BELOW the surface & question your assumptions. It doesn't really matter who you "blame" for it (Republicans, Democrats, Unicorns, whatever floats your boat), what's important is finding the truth.

......and I am optimistic. Not deceived. Optimistic.

Do you believe the two are mutually exclusive ? There's nothing wrong with hoping for the best just as long as you plan for the worst, I certainly hope for your sake you're engaging in both.

And.......just so you know.......I am pretty much over your arrogant fucking tone.

so angry, does this mean you're breaking up with me?

If you want to be treated with respect, I suggest you start offering it.

I'm sorry I disrespected you by not agreeing with you but how you "treat" me is up to you, do whatever you feel is necessary to satisfy your own requirements, after all if you go too over the top I know where /dev/null is and how to put you in it.

Modern Monetary Theory Primer - New Economic Perspectives

Thank you for the link, however I have a much more comprehensive library on the subject at my disposal, so you'll forgive me if I just bookmark it and make no promises about getting back to it (might, might not, depends on time & desire).

 

[g5000]

Obama took office in January 2009.

Here is the January 2009 Employment Situation Summary: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02062009.pdf

We were bleeding about 600,000 jobs a month when he took office. It would be unrealistic to expect that to stop immediately upon his taking of the oath of office.

Here is the October 2009 Employment Situation Summary: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11062009.pdf

And here is the July 2013 Employment Situation Summary: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf


We find full time jobs plummeted to about 110 million by October 2009. They now stand at 116 million.

Part time jobs in October 2009 were 27 million. They now stand at 28 million.

Fuckin' A! That's like 7 MILLION JOBS!!!!!!

Horrible!

Here is something even more interesting:

If you start at one year into each administration (beginning of 2002 for Bush, beginning of 2010 for Obama), and look at the job creation rate during Obama's administration and the job creation rate during Bush's Administration, they trend almost identically. The only difference is that Obama was starting from a lower point.

 

[KissMy]

Labor-force participation rate & employment ratio are turning down.

 

[ScienceRocks]

yes, that's it, blame one man for the entire economy. We all know the repubs are doing all they can.

You would of blamed one man under Bush?

 

[yota5]

Some of you have made excellent points, and your grasp of the situation shows in your replies. Others that I see posting here seem to have issues with reality. First the President has nothing to do with creating jobs. That is accomplished by the private sector. What the President is responsible for is promoting an environment that is conducive for strong job growth. When the President puts in place policies that stifle growth we experience the pain of a stagnant, weak economy. People will not risk their personal wealth to start business' and hire people when predatory policies are in effect. We have an elephant in the room. That elephant is our national debt. When Obama took office our national debt stood at 10.3 trillion dollars. Today just 5 years later our debt is approaching 17 trillion dollars. 7 trillion dollars squandered, and we have nothing to show for it. Economists tell us that when we hit 20 trillion dollars the USA will not be able to borrow the money to keep our economy going anymore. Our military, all social programs, law enforcement fire, CIA, FBI, NSA, et al goes away. We wont have a USA anymore because our government will cease to function. How many of you think that our enemies wont take advantage of that? U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time We are already seeing business making the shift from full time positions with benefits to part time positions with out benefits. How do you think that will work out for us. The Obama train wreck is racing to the edge of the cliff. Once it goes over we can't go back to the way it was. I was lucky to be raised in the greatest country on this planet. I was fortunate to raise my children in the same great country. Unfortunately I will only be able to tell my grandchildren about the way it used to be. Obama, and the liberal party are a clear and present danger to the USA.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Labor-force participation rate & employment ratio are turning down.

I think Obama has fairly good plan
1. Jobs in infrastructure, science and tech..Truth is we're a hybrid economy, not a pure 19th century capitalist one.
2. Cut the corporate tax

I'd add
3. Cut the red tape on the small business(not to harm the environment of course)
4. Put into place fair trade, NOT free.

 

[g5000]

Labor-force participation rate & employment ratio are turning down.

Yes. That is why the task remaining is to get the full time job creation back on trend. It has been moving in that direction since 2010.

Look at the peak in the number of full time employed before the crash, and then look at the trough. That is one helluva crash to overcome. That is what Obama is tasked with digging us out of.

So far, he has been creating full time jobs faster than Bush did. He not only has to get all those jobs back, many of which will never be coming back because they were related to the bubble, he also has to keep up with population growth.

 

[kaz]

yes, that's it, blame one man for the entire economy. We all know the repubs are doing all they can.

It works when it's the one man who's head of the party that is burring the engine of growth in this country, free enterprise.

No matter how many leftist governments go broke, that's still the liberal playbook. Spend money, point fingers, whine to high heaven when any of it comes back to you...

 

[g5000]

Some of you have made excellent points, and your grasp of the situation shows in your replies. Others that I see posting here seem to have issues with reality. First the President has nothing to do with creating jobs. That is accomplished by the private sector. What the President is responsible for is promoting an environment that is conducive for strong job growth. When the President puts in place policies that stifle growth we experience the pain of a stagnant, weak economy. People will not risk their personal wealth to start business' and hire people when predatory policies are in effect. We have an elephant in the room. That elephant is our national debt. When Obama took office our national debt stood at 10.3 trillion dollars. Today just 5 years later our debt is approaching 17 trillion dollars. 7 trillion dollars squandered, and we have nothing to show for it. Economists tell us that when we hit 20 trillion dollars the USA will not be able to borrow the money to keep our economy going anymore. Our military, all social programs, law enforcement fire, CIA, FBI, NSA, et al goes away. We wont have a USA anymore because our government will cease to function. How many of you think that our enemies wont take advantage of that? U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time We are already seeing business making the shift from full time positions with benefits to part time positions with out benefits. How do you think that will work out for us. The Obama train wreck is racing to the edge of the cliff. Once it goes over we can't go back to the way it was. I was lucky to be raised in the greatest country on this planet. I was fortunate to raise my children in the same great country. Unfortunately I will only be able to tell my grandchildren about the way it used to be. Obama, and the liberal party are a clear and present danger to the USA.

Bush also doubled the national debt, and it was said when we hit $10 trillion in debt we would have to default. I vividly recall reading articles based on that premise.

There is no magic number which means default. We had a higher debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of WWII. Congress is one good budget away from turning this all around and getting us back on track. But they are choosing to be unmitigated assholes instead.

Everyone in Congress is trying to protect their sacred cows and want to take the entire cost out of the other guy's hide. In the meantime, we are drowning in all of their bullshit. It is time to stop eating it and hold every last one of them accountable.

 

[deltex1]

There is still time to buy Sirius sat radio...I'm up 25 k since 1 July...invest and prosper...

 

[ScienceRocks]

What both sides don't understand is we can't pass anything without "sharing" power. I think the corporate tax is a good thing for funding our infrastructure, science and tech.

 

[NightFox]

If you start at one year into each administration (beginning of 2002 for Bush, beginning of 2010 for Obama), and look at the job creation rate during Obama's administration and the job creation rate during Bush's Administration, they trend almost identically. The only difference is that Obama was starting from a lower point.

They should trend almost identically since they both illustrate one aspect of the same thing, what an inflationary bubble looks like, doesn't matter if you put an "R" behind it or a "D" behind it, neither party has figured out a way to defy economic reality for more than a short period of time and frankly neither party is really interested in doing so, they just want to obfuscate the long term problems between election cycles.

We shouldn't expect real solutions to our structural economic challenges to come out of the mouths of politicians, they don't have the answers and they aren't interested in the answers, what we need from them (Democrat and Republican alike) is for them to level with the American People about what we're really up against and what sacrifices are going to be required to address these challenges.

 

[IlarMeilyr]

No no.

The labor numbers are real.

Genuine.

NOBODY is cooking the books or fudging the figures at all.

Nope.

Not in any way.

Not happening.

And economy is now humming along.

Even bad news is good news.

And any hint of good in the bad news is cause for celebration!

Hallelujah!

Obama and the institutionalization of the debt and deficits has SAVED us.

No WONDER he's called the Obamessiah.

 

[Skull Pilot]

Given enough time any recession will end.

With or without the government fucking things up.

 

[Harry Dresden]

yes, that's it, blame one man for the entire economy. We all know the repubs are doing all they can.

many here have blamed one man for the Worlds economy taking a dump a few years ago....

 

[g5000]

Given enough time any recession will end.

With or without the government fucking things up.

Then every government would have the same economies.

Since they don't, governments make a big difference in the success or failure of an economy.

 

[g5000]

yes, that's it, blame one man for the entire economy. We all know the repubs are doing all they can.

many here have blamed one man for the Worlds economy taking a dump a few years ago....

There was a cast of thousands behind the crash. However, if a fleck of shit hits someone in the eye anywhere in the world, there are those here who blame Obama. So it is only fair play to blame Bush for everything that happened on his watch.

The tables turn as power changes hands, but the song remains the same.