Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
After three years of deliberations, an international-law tribunal ruled against China on Tuesday, rejecting most of its claims of control over the South China Sea in favor of the Philippines in a high-profile territorial dispute. The ruling can be a major setback to China’s President Xi Jinping’s agenda. Or it might change little, or even escalate tensions. Xi points to a “nine-dash line” on the map of the region that puts most of the South China Sea in China’s territory while ignoring claims of sovereignty by less powerful neighbors. This line dates to at least 1947, but has been contested by its neighbors.
Chinese fishermen and military patrols increasingly clash with locals, pushing them out of sea rocks, atolls and islands that are rich in minerals, fishery and other goodies. Beijing considers the sky above the area its own, demanding all aircraft passing through register with it. And it builds artificial islands that function as strategically located military bases. As the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan and others have claimed sovereignty over areas that China has confiscated in the South and East China seas, the United States — once Asia’s top naval power — has adamantly declined to take sides on territorial disputes.
Instead, Obama administration officials have urged all sides to go to international arbitration, where competing claims over territories are supposed to be resolved peacefully. And that’s what the Philippines decided to do in 2013. Oops. China never accepted the tribunal’s authority, and is now rejecting its findings. “Our national sovereignty and our maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea will not be affected in any way by the ruling,” Xi said Tuesday, after The Hague released the tribunal’s verdict. Oh, and the ruling was based on the UN Law of the Sea Convention, a treaty that binds China to the rules the tribunal cited in its decision. But Chinese officials have insisted that since the United States never ratified the convention, Washington should butt out.
Yet there was State Department spokesman John Kirby, lauding Tuesday’s ruling as “an important contribution to the shared goal of a peaceful resolution to disputes in the South China Sea.” Peaceful resolution? Tuesday’s ruling could well serve as an opening salvo, while hostilities escalate. Endless postings on Weibo (China’s version of Twitter) and on Chinese media called the ruling a meaningless “piece of paper.” Instead, they proudly displayed maps of Xi’s “nine-dash line.” Chinese planes are already flying over some of the military bases China has built illegally (according to the tribunal’s findings) near the Philippines. Even if he wanted to, Xi will be hard-pressed to ignore the nationalistic fevers that he’s stoked since coming to power. He may even escalate his military buildup and territorial expansion.
MORE
The Right can't wait for another war.
