"West Antarctic Ice Sheet's Collapse Triggers Sea Level Warning"

[IlarMeilyr]

Though the ice is resting on a sub-sea level surface, the mass of ice is much larger than what would float. The estimates are that it will raise sea level world wide 10-15 feet. This is in addition to sea level rise from melting elsewhere as well as the rise caused by thermal expansion as the ocean warms. This is not good news. Another in a long line of underestimates by cautious scientists pressed hard by politicians not to risk upsetting the public with the scary truth.

Try not to be such a dunce. The ice that is anchored doesn't float because it is anchored, not because it is too heavy to float.

Roughly 10% would ride above the surface if it were floating, regardless of weight.

It's pretty difficult to take you seriously when you know so little about basic Earth sciences.

 

[Crick]

I guess that's learned me a lesson.

 

[flacaltenn]

Have you not read ANY of the many articles on this topic? It was on the front page of CNN, CBS, NBC, ABC and at least somewhere on Fox. Warm ocean water is causing the bases of the glaciers feeding the Amundsen sea to detach from the sea floor. The weight of miles of ice over millions of years have pushed the ground in the West Antarctic Peninsula below sea level. That's why so many of those damned alarmists have been warming about a runaway collapse there. The point at which the glaciers break loose from the ground is known as their grounding lines. Their grounding lines have been receding at such a pace and have gotten into such topography, that the process has become self-sustaining. The glacier systems have been unstable all along and are now collapsing (upward, though, as the ocean moves underneath them). This will raise sea level significantly. The scientists say it will take a century or two. I just want to point out that their predictions have a horrible tendency to turn out to have put things too far off. This could all come apart next week. Do you have any flotation gear around the house?

ps: this has NOTHING to do with the pole melting.

That explanation of "warmer seas" is in SERIOUS doubt since I posted the satellite of the Southern Ocean since 1979 a few pages back --- and it is RELATIVELY FLAT. Not to mention the BedRock connection that go 600 miles INLAND and is largely above SeaLevel..

Glaciers with ocean outlets calve ice. That's how they work. And I also posted a 2014 paper from the glaciology journal stating in the ABSTRACT how little is known about the mechanics of these glaciers. The paper goes on to model different scenarios INCLUDING the possilble ADVANCE of these W. Antarctic glaciers.

You folks just leap to conclusions that are not part of the actual science. It's all in the magnified Press Releases where the "message" is mostly topical activism and not linked to the actual work..

 

[Crick]

Have you not read ANY of the many articles on this topic? It was on the front page of CNN, CBS, NBC, ABC and at least somewhere on Fox. Warm ocean water is causing the bases of the glaciers feeding the Amundsen sea to detach from the sea floor. The weight of miles of ice over millions of years have pushed the ground in the West Antarctic Peninsula below sea level. That's why so many of those damned alarmists have been warming about a runaway collapse there. The point at which the glaciers break loose from the ground is known as their grounding lines. Their grounding lines have been receding at such a pace and have gotten into such topography, that the process has become self-sustaining. The glacier systems have been unstable all along and are now collapsing (upward, though, as the ocean moves underneath them). This will raise sea level significantly. The scientists say it will take a century or two. I just want to point out that their predictions have a horrible tendency to turn out to have put things too far off. This could all come apart next week. Do you have any flotation gear around the house?

ps: this has NOTHING to do with the pole melting.

That explanation of "warmer seas" is in SERIOUS doubt since I posted the satellite of the Southern Ocean since 1979 a few pages back --- and it is RELATIVELY FLAT. Not to mention the BedRock connection that go 600 miles INLAND and is largely above SeaLevel..

Glaciers with ocean outlets calve ice. That's how they work. And I also posted a 2014 paper from the glaciology journal stating in the ABSTRACT how little is known about the mechanics of these glaciers. The paper goes on to model different scenarios INCLUDING the possilble ADVANCE of these W. Antarctic glaciers.

You folks just leap to conclusions that are not part of the actual science. It's all in the magnified Press Releases where the "message" is mostly topical activism and not linked to the actual work..

Are you suggesting that the glaciers are NOT accelerating?

Are you suggesting that their grounding lines are NOT retreating?

There seems to be no question that you believe yourself more knowledgeable, more intelligent and more honest than two rooms full of PhD glaciologists. Do you have any objective evidence for that point of view?

 

[longknife]

Sheeesh!

I remember not too long ago some ideas being floated around of having large tankers go to the arctic and antarctic and capturing large ice bergs to haul back to countries vitally short of water.

Well, looks like this presents a great chance for them to do just that!!!

 

[westwall]

Sea rising seems to be the new clued-in scientist's witch hunt for emptying successful economies of their working cash by skimming foundations and tapping governments of their taxpayers' savings to keep up their works.

Why do you say that? Scientists have been warning of rising sea levels as a result of global warming since before the IPCC was formed. Nothing new about it. The news - that the glaciers feeding the Amundsen Sea have begun to break loose from their beds in what appears to be an unstoppable process, is something that scientists have also been warning about for years. That the bedrock under most of the West Antarctic ice sheet is below sea level leads to the obvious conclusion that the system as a whole is inherently unstable.

And where do you see scientists trying to get money from governments or taxpayers? The message on this one is that there's nothing we can do about this, it's too late. Doing nothing costs nothing. Until the world's coastlines are inundated with 15-20 feet of water. What do you think that'll cost?

Someone must've added cash maneuvers into curriculums to get scientists to monitor every source to enlarge the body of research.

Please show us what you're talking about.

The scaring of societies with lies will cause us to lose good scientists and leave us with the vacuous ones.

Since scientists warned us for years that precisely what has happened would happen, the ones spouting lies would be... well.. you.

And you still haven't addressed the Holocene Thermal Maximum I mentioned a few posts back when the global temps were 5 degrees C warmer than today and funnily enough nothing you claim will happen with a one degree rise happened back then.

When are you going to get around to answering that?

 

[jc456]

And CO2 does not drive climate much less methane or any other so called carbon forcing. It is all AGW propaganda based on a religion and not on real science.

And you probably praise the lord every Sunday morning. LOL

Naw, you can own that!

 

[jc456]

You have the same access to the pertinent papers as do I. If you want to challenge one, pull it up and challenge it.

Holy crap!! Did you just write that? Hmmmmmmmmm

 

[westwall]

Have you not read ANY of the many articles on this topic? It was on the front page of CNN, CBS, NBC, ABC and at least somewhere on Fox. Warm ocean water is causing the bases of the glaciers feeding the Amundsen sea to detach from the sea floor. The weight of miles of ice over millions of years have pushed the ground in the West Antarctic Peninsula below sea level. That's why so many of those damned alarmists have been warming about a runaway collapse there. The point at which the glaciers break loose from the ground is known as their grounding lines. Their grounding lines have been receding at such a pace and have gotten into such topography, that the process has become self-sustaining. The glacier systems have been unstable all along and are now collapsing (upward, though, as the ocean moves underneath them). This will raise sea level significantly. The scientists say it will take a century or two. I just want to point out that their predictions have a horrible tendency to turn out to have put things too far off. This could all come apart next week. Do you have any flotation gear around the house?

ps: this has NOTHING to do with the pole melting.

That explanation of "warmer seas" is in SERIOUS doubt since I posted the satellite of the Southern Ocean since 1979 a few pages back --- and it is RELATIVELY FLAT. Not to mention the BedRock connection that go 600 miles INLAND and is largely above SeaLevel..

Glaciers with ocean outlets calve ice. That's how they work. And I also posted a 2014 paper from the glaciology journal stating in the ABSTRACT how little is known about the mechanics of these glaciers. The paper goes on to model different scenarios INCLUDING the possilble ADVANCE of these W. Antarctic glaciers.

You folks just leap to conclusions that are not part of the actual science. It's all in the magnified Press Releases where the "message" is mostly topical activism and not linked to the actual work..

Are you suggesting that the glaciers are NOT accelerating?

Are you suggesting that their grounding lines are NOT retreating?

There seems to be no question that you believe yourself more knowledgeable, more intelligent and more honest than two rooms full of PhD glaciologists. Do you have any objective evidence for that point of view?

The Principle of Uniformitarianism is a foundation of science. Occams Razor springs forth from it in point of fact. How then does the that Principle apply to this paper?



Global characterization of the Holocene Thermal Maximum
H. Renssena, Corresponding author contact information, E-mail the corresponding author, E-mail the corresponding author,
H. Seppäb,
X. Crostac,
H. Goossed,
D.M. Rochea, e


http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.05.022
Get rights and content


Abstract

We analyze the global variations in the timing and magnitude of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) and their dependence on various forcings in transient simulations covering the last 9000 years (9 ka), performed with a global atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model. In these experiments, we consider the influence of variations in orbital parameters and atmospheric greenhouse gases and the early-Holocene deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice sheet (LIS). Considering the LIS deglaciation, we quantify separately the impacts of the background melt-water fluxes and the changes in topography and surface albedo.

In the analysis we focus on the intensity of the maximum temperature deviation relative to the preindustrial level, its timing in the Holocene, and the seasonal expression. In the model, the warmest HTM conditions are found at high latitudes in both hemispheres, reaching 5 °C above the preindustrial level, while the smallest HTM signal is seen over tropical oceans (less than 0.5 °C). This latitudinal contrast is mostly related to the nature of the orbitally-forced insolation forcing, which is also largest at high latitudes, and further enhanced by the polar amplification. The Holocene timing of the HTM is earliest (before 8 ka BP) in regions not affected by the remnant LIS, particularly NW North America, E Asia, N Africa, N South America, the Middle East, NE Siberia and Australia. Compared to the early Holocene insolation maximum, the HTM was delayed by 2–3 ka over NE North America, and regions directly downwind from the LIS. A similar delay is simulated over the Southern Ocean, while an intermediate lag of about 1 ka is found over most other continents and oceans. The seasonal timing of the HTM over continents generally occurs in the same month as the maximum insolation anomaly, whereas over oceans the HTM is delayed by 2–3 months. Exceptions are the oceans covered by sea ice and North Africa, were additional feedbacks results in a different seasonal timing. The simulated timing and magnitude of the HTM are generally consistent with global proxy evidence, with some notable exceptions in the Mediterranean region, SW North America and eastern Eurasia.
Global characterization of the Holocene Thermal Maximum

 

[jc456]

Regarding the glaciers feeding the Amundsen Sea, we most definitely HAVE reached the tipping point.

didn't the world end on December 21, 2012? Why are we here talking about this? The world ended.

 

[IlarMeilyr]

I guess that's learned me a lesson.

^ A very desirable goal. Unlikely to get accomplished, I'm afraid. You'd first have to grasp the fact that your faith in your religion is not the same thing as "science."

Good luck with that.

 

[Crick]

From BBCNews

Antarctica's mighty Pine Island Glacier (PIG) is now very probably in a headlong, self-sustaining retreat.

This is the conclusion of three teams that have modelled its behaviour.

Even if the region were to experience much colder conditions, the retreat would continue, the teams tell the journal Nature Climate Change.

This means PIG is set to become an even more significant contributor to global sea level rise - on the order of perhaps 3.5-10mm in the next 20 years.

"You can think of PIG like a ball. It's been kicked and it's just going to keep on rolling for the foreseeable future," said Dr Hilmar Gudmundsson from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).

PIG is a colossal feature. Covering more than 160,000 sq km (two-thirds the size of the UK), it drains something like 20% of all the ice flowing off the west of the White Continent.

Satellite and airborne measurements have recorded a marked thinning and a surge in velocity in recent decades.

Its grounding line - the zone where the glacier enters the sea and lifts up and floats - has reversed tens of km over the same period.

[For FCT]Much of this behaviour is driven not by higher air temperatures in the cold south but by warm ocean bottom-waters getting under and eroding the floating ice shelf at the head of the glacier.

Key to PIG's observed behaviour is that a large section of it sits below sea level, with the rock bed sloping back towards the continent.

Thinning rate The very latest satellite data details the thinning occurring in this region of West Antarctica
This can produce what scientists refer to as a "marine ice sheet instability" - an inherently unstable architecture, which, once knocked, can go into an irreversible decline.

Dr Gudmundsson's group, together with colleagues in the UK, France, Finland and China, have used numerical models to describe PIG's current and future behaviour, and they argue that it has now entered just such a mode.

[For Mylar]"Even if you were to reduce melt rates, you would not stop the retreat," Dr Gudmundsson told BBC News.

"We did a number of model runs where we allowed PIG to retreat some distance back, and then we lowered the melt rates in our models. And despite doing that, the grounding line continued to retreat.

"You can talk about external forcing factors, such climate and ocean effects, and then there are internal factors which are the flow dynamics. What we find is that the internal dynamics of flow are such that the retreat is now self-sustaining."

This has major implications for sea level rise.

The Amundsen Bay, the area of West Antarctica containing PIG and other large glaciers, is currently dumping more than 150 cu km of ice a year into the ocean.

If the forecasts of Dr Gudmundsson and colleagues are correct, PIG could now lead an accelerating trend.

The teams write in their journal paper: "The [PIG's] associated mass loss increases substantially over the course of our simulations from the average value of 20 billion tonnes a year observed for the 1992-2011 period, up to and above 100 billion tonnes a year, equivalent to 3.5-10mm eustatic sea-level rise over the following 20 years." By way of comparison, the most recent satellite data suggested West Antarctica as a whole was contributing about one-third of one millimetre per year to sea level rise.

A recent study, from a different research group at BAS, indicated that year-to-year variability in the melting of the glacier was very sensitive to the amount of warm ocean-bottom water reaching the ice shelf's underside.

This group noted that a high ridge on the sea floor could at times block the action of the warm water, resulting in a slowdown in the rate of melting.

Dr Andy Shepherd from Leeds University is connected with neither study but follows PIG's progress closely via satellite observations. He suspects the perspective taken in the new Nature Climate Change paper properly describes the long-term outcome.

"Although there have been reports that PIG is sensitive to short-term changes in climate, this latest simulation of the glacier response to long-term forcing matches closely with satellite observations of continued retreat, and provides compelling evidence that increased ice losses are inevitable in the future," he said.

Dr Gudmundsson cautions that computer models are simulations that carry uncertainties, and must be constrained and improved by the further infusion of real-world data.

BAS is engaged in a big project, known as iStar, which is trying to do just this.

 

[IlarMeilyr]

Oh nosies. Glaciers have never ever in the history of time ever retreated before.

Sound the alarums, sirrah!

 

[flacaltenn]

Hey Crick !!! Asked you to find this post a few pages back.. I'm Bumping it for you to QUESTION the explanation of "warmer waters" eating at the ass end of the PIGlacier or any others.







Not even gonna touch thinkprogress as a science reference..

I quick plotted the Southern Ocean temps about 6 months ago from a govt site..

Where's the warming ???????????????????????????????????? ... that triggered this speculation and doom.........................................
I think it's in the Whouse kitchen where they are cooking all these stories up..

EDIT --- Had to go check where this came from.. UAH Satellite Temp Data -- Southern Ocean Only. 1979 to 2013....
Warmer longer in the 80s than today... But hardly a budge...

NEXT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[flacaltenn]

You also need to respond to the 2014 study I posted a few pages from Glaciology Journal stating that the
mechanics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was "poorly understood"..

This press coverage is jumping the gun and making pronouncements that can't be cashed.
If warmer waters are eating these glaciers --- how come Antartic sea ice has been on an INCLINE for over 40 years??

 

[jc456]

You also need to respond to the 2014 study I posted a few pages from Glaciology Journal stating that the
mechanics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was "poorly understood"..

This press coverage is jumping the gun and making pronouncements that can't be cashed.
If warmer waters are eating these glaciers --- how come Antartic sea ice has been on an INCLINE for over 40 years??

He won't answer because he can't. The models just say so, so it is. Don't you know this by now?

 

[Iceweasel]

This is all so confusing. Should I go ahead and pull the Styrofoam covers off my outside hose bibs or no?

 

[flacaltenn]

After our warming lemmings absorb the sat data above and produce evidence of these "warmer waters" in contrast to the increasing sea ice evidence. They also have to explain how glaciers attached to SUB SEA bedrock end up INCREASING sea level when they melt. If the LARGE majority of ice is already IN the ocean, what diff does it make?

As I said PAGES ago -- this is an OLD story.. Was discussed here awhile back.. And at the time I posted this..


http://www.usmessageboard.com/environment/334858-massive-antarctic-glacier-has-entered-irriversible-melt-could-add-up-to-1-centimeter-4.html#post8461160

Get a grip.. Better YET -- get your bearings, go on Google Earth -- Find Pine Island and LOOK at this miniscule part of that continent.

To give you CONTEXT for that photo --- here's a map... PIG MARKS THE SPOT..

Women and children and warmers FIRST -- to the shuttle craft -- The mother ship is coming.

 

[mamooth]

They also have to explain how glaciers attached to SUB SEA bedrock end up INCREASING sea level when they melt.

Suppose I put a 1 meter square block of ice in a kiddie pool with a few inches of water in it.

According to flac here, water level won't rise after it melts, because the ice is resting on the bottom of the pool.

Deniers in general aren't good at problem setup. That's one of the things the scientific background drills into you.

 

[Crick]

The top of that ice sheet is w-e-e-e-e-e-ll above sea level. Only about 8% of a floating piece of freshwater ice remains above the surface.