Sundance508
Gold Member
- May 24, 2016
- 3,109
- 609
- 255
- Thread starter
- #21
The problem some analysts have with China is that they approach the China problem with a western viewpoint which leads to erroneous conclusions.
Make no mistake here.....it is a China problem...not a N. Korean problem. We must face the music...N. Korea would have been dealt with long ago had it not been for China supporting them...even Bill Clinton would not have caved into the N. Koreans had it not been for China....even LBJ could have won the war against N. Vietnam had it not been for fear of China entering the war...what made us give up on the Korean War under Eisenhower...the entry of China into that war even though at that time they had a very inferior military...but they did have millions and millions to be used for cannon fodder...so what if for every American soldier lost we killed a 100 or more chinese....it was a game we could not win without really transforming from a 'limited war' to a full scale war with the possibility also of Russia entering it in support of the Chinese and N. Koreans which provoked the fear of a nuclear conflict...thus Eisenhower settled for a stalemate which in essence was actually a victory for N. Korea and China.
Again...the reality is ....China is not our friend....they will make gestures as they now are of supporting the sanctions...which they and Russia might do for a lil while....the bottom line though is that the sanctions will after time wither away and N. Korea will have more nukes and more icbms capable of reaching anywhere in America...once that is achieved then N. Korea will be able to engage in nuclear blackmail....which they are already attempting to do ....with some success even though at this stage their Nuclear capability though limited still exists...and the truth of the matter is we really do not know their capabilities.
China is very,very clever....they look at things very differently than we...they are more oriented to the long view...not the current scenario....they are looking much farther down the road than we...and what they see and what they want and what they are obsessed with is to get America out of their sphere of influence, to retake Taiwan, and to make S. Korea a puppet state of theirs like N.Korea now is. But like America there are different viewpoints in China...the Chinese military has much,much more influence on the government there than our military has on our government...the Chinese Military have been building their power/capabilities for a long time now...their hawkish generals want to demonstrate that power and they see a limited engagement with America as the way to do it. The Chinese politicians probably do not want that...but they certainly do not fear it and if America attacks N. Korea they will step in to help N. Korea...hence Trump's reluctance to go the military route ..he full well knows he would face a Chinese military that may very well be able to inflict a terrible and humiliating defeat on our forces over there. At the very best....we might be able to stave off defeat and once again settle for a stalemate...but that is not a gurantee...in a nutshell to take on the Chinese Military would be a huge gamble....thus Trump's dilemna...with limited support here at home...he is not likely to take that gamble. As all of the Presidents before him he will him and haw..take the diplomatic route...play the sanctions game and when it is clear that N. Korea has advanced their nuclear capabilities and their delivery systems...he will fall back to the position of investing billions more of dollars into our anti-missle systems with no real assurance they would be able to knock down all of the icbms that N. Korea might throw at us.
The only way we could really win in this struggle with N. Korea is to convince China we are ready to take the Nuclear approach...that they definitely do no want....but the problem is they would see it as a bluff...it would be exceeding difficult maybe impossible to convince China we may go nuclear even if we are prepared to do so....which as of yet we are not. But Trump is a wild card...the best approach for him would be prepared to launch a sufficient number of tactical nukes to neutralize N. Korea with overwhelming force....if he were to do that ...it would greatly reduce the likliehood of China stepping in to help N. Korea. Still a gamble...a very,very difficult decision to make.
Make no mistake here.....it is a China problem...not a N. Korean problem. We must face the music...N. Korea would have been dealt with long ago had it not been for China supporting them...even Bill Clinton would not have caved into the N. Koreans had it not been for China....even LBJ could have won the war against N. Vietnam had it not been for fear of China entering the war...what made us give up on the Korean War under Eisenhower...the entry of China into that war even though at that time they had a very inferior military...but they did have millions and millions to be used for cannon fodder...so what if for every American soldier lost we killed a 100 or more chinese....it was a game we could not win without really transforming from a 'limited war' to a full scale war with the possibility also of Russia entering it in support of the Chinese and N. Koreans which provoked the fear of a nuclear conflict...thus Eisenhower settled for a stalemate which in essence was actually a victory for N. Korea and China.
Again...the reality is ....China is not our friend....they will make gestures as they now are of supporting the sanctions...which they and Russia might do for a lil while....the bottom line though is that the sanctions will after time wither away and N. Korea will have more nukes and more icbms capable of reaching anywhere in America...once that is achieved then N. Korea will be able to engage in nuclear blackmail....which they are already attempting to do ....with some success even though at this stage their Nuclear capability though limited still exists...and the truth of the matter is we really do not know their capabilities.
China is very,very clever....they look at things very differently than we...they are more oriented to the long view...not the current scenario....they are looking much farther down the road than we...and what they see and what they want and what they are obsessed with is to get America out of their sphere of influence, to retake Taiwan, and to make S. Korea a puppet state of theirs like N.Korea now is. But like America there are different viewpoints in China...the Chinese military has much,much more influence on the government there than our military has on our government...the Chinese Military have been building their power/capabilities for a long time now...their hawkish generals want to demonstrate that power and they see a limited engagement with America as the way to do it. The Chinese politicians probably do not want that...but they certainly do not fear it and if America attacks N. Korea they will step in to help N. Korea...hence Trump's reluctance to go the military route ..he full well knows he would face a Chinese military that may very well be able to inflict a terrible and humiliating defeat on our forces over there. At the very best....we might be able to stave off defeat and once again settle for a stalemate...but that is not a gurantee...in a nutshell to take on the Chinese Military would be a huge gamble....thus Trump's dilemna...with limited support here at home...he is not likely to take that gamble. As all of the Presidents before him he will him and haw..take the diplomatic route...play the sanctions game and when it is clear that N. Korea has advanced their nuclear capabilities and their delivery systems...he will fall back to the position of investing billions more of dollars into our anti-missle systems with no real assurance they would be able to knock down all of the icbms that N. Korea might throw at us.
The only way we could really win in this struggle with N. Korea is to convince China we are ready to take the Nuclear approach...that they definitely do no want....but the problem is they would see it as a bluff...it would be exceeding difficult maybe impossible to convince China we may go nuclear even if we are prepared to do so....which as of yet we are not. But Trump is a wild card...the best approach for him would be prepared to launch a sufficient number of tactical nukes to neutralize N. Korea with overwhelming force....if he were to do that ...it would greatly reduce the likliehood of China stepping in to help N. Korea. Still a gamble...a very,very difficult decision to make.
