william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
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Projections of current trends are a very mixed bag
On the plus side:
Energy costs that are cheap to safely store and scalable are dropping like a rock. While most of this news is about fossil fuels this would also include bio-fuels such as palm oil and with time no doubt other alternatives.
Low energy/low cost manufacture in the form of robotics, additive manufacture and conventional automation is taking off.
Other trends that should lead to higher GDP are launch services, bio-tech, nano-tech and possibly much cheaper ICs as Moore's law collides with physics. That last one may be confusing but a major cost of IC production is how fast the fabs that make them get antiquated. Depreciating those mutli-billion fabs over decades instead of years will make a big difference in price.
On the minus side:
The EU is in deep trouble with its rigid labor markets and all of the above works against it.
China is experiencing another uptick in capital and talent flight as the men and women on the spot are increasingly voting with their feet and pocketbooks to get out ahead of the collapse.
The rollout of ACA may or may not be coincident with healthcare becoming an increasing returns industry. However it sure looks like the capitulation that happens at market turning points as does its Edsel of social programs image. If that is the case getting rid of it will be a nightmare.
So net plus or minus?
On the plus side:
Energy costs that are cheap to safely store and scalable are dropping like a rock. While most of this news is about fossil fuels this would also include bio-fuels such as palm oil and with time no doubt other alternatives.
Low energy/low cost manufacture in the form of robotics, additive manufacture and conventional automation is taking off.
Other trends that should lead to higher GDP are launch services, bio-tech, nano-tech and possibly much cheaper ICs as Moore's law collides with physics. That last one may be confusing but a major cost of IC production is how fast the fabs that make them get antiquated. Depreciating those mutli-billion fabs over decades instead of years will make a big difference in price.
On the minus side:
The EU is in deep trouble with its rigid labor markets and all of the above works against it.
China is experiencing another uptick in capital and talent flight as the men and women on the spot are increasingly voting with their feet and pocketbooks to get out ahead of the collapse.
The rollout of ACA may or may not be coincident with healthcare becoming an increasing returns industry. However it sure looks like the capitulation that happens at market turning points as does its Edsel of social programs image. If that is the case getting rid of it will be a nightmare.
So net plus or minus?
