I don't know who the Dem nominee will be. But, it won't be Biden. He is a total joke. A pushover. Only Sanders is more of a pushover. Polls this far out mean nothing. As people get to know the other candidates, the race will change and a front runner will emerge. A national poll had Clinton up by 14 points with just 2 weeks to go, and was off by a mile.
I still think Clinton and Beto will form a ticket.
Well, if Biden is a total Joke, why is he kicking Trumps ass in the latest polls in Michigan, Wisconsin as well as the national polls? Plus, polling has a much longer history than just what happened in 2016. If your opinion on polling is formed by what happened in 2016, then you will be in for a rude awakening in 2020. Most polling is pretty accurate within certain margins.
The average of the latest 5 polls for the Democratic nomination shows the following:
Biden: 29.4%
Sanders: 23.4%
Harris: 10.4%
Beto O'Rourke: 8%
Warren: 6.6%
Booker: 4%
Klobuchar: 2.3%
Buttigieg: 1.3%
Hickenlooper: 1%
Castro: .8%
Inslee: .8%
Gillibrand: .4%
Regardless of what people say, Biden is riding high and he hasn't even declared yet. Biden has the advantaged of being on the national ticket into Presidential elections in 2008 and 2012 and winning both times. He served as Vice President for 8 years in an administration that is more POPULAR than the current administration. He is a known entity and people like him. Both positives for Biden and explains why he leads the current list average.
Biden got destroyed by Mike Dukakis for crying out loud. The same Mike Dukakis that polls claimed had an insurmountable 17 point lead over Bush at the end of July 1988.
Biden got crushed by Clinton and Obama in 2008.
I don't just rely on polls from 2016. We have many to choose from. I also like Coakley by 15 one week out against Scott Brown here in Massachusetts. Of course, Gillum by 9 in Florida was an instant classic from the 2018 mid terms. There are so many to choose from.
You are right that polling can sometimes be very accurate, but not when the organizations doing them have an agenda or an axe to grind.
So you say. You have a agenda as well so that means that what you say doesn't matter.