What the national polls say about a 2020 Trump vs. Biden race.

[dblack]

Another General Election poll where Biden beats Trump:

Politico/Morning Consult:

Biden: 42%

Trump: 34%

Uh huh. Polls.

Democrats need more than polls.

Wrong last time and still wrong

Polling has a much longer history than November 2016. You are going to be in a state of shock on November 3, 2020 if you ignore the polling data.

Maybe. But Democrats still haven't learned their lesson. They can win without at least some of the redneck vote, and they're not even trying.

 

[U2Edge]

So Biden has announced today. This is how the current field of Democratic candidates stacks up against each other as they fight for the nomination. These polling numbers come from the average of recent polls on the contest to win the Democratic nomination for President as provided by RealClearPolitics:

BIDEN: 29.3%

Sanders: 23%

Harris: 8.3%

Buttigieg: 7.5%

Warren: 6.5%

O'Rourke: 6.3%

Booker: 3.5%

Klobuchar: 1.5%

Yang: 1.5%

Castro: 1.3%

Hickenlooper: 1%

Gillibrand: .8%

Ryan: .7%

Gabbard: .5%

Inslee: .3%

Delaney: .3%


As you can see, Biden and Sanders are taking up all the oxygen in the room. Its really a race between the two of them. The only other candidates at this point who have even a remote chance at the nomination are Harris, Buttigieg and Warren. But those three all suffer from serious electability issues and have much ground to make up. Their individual numbers are not even a third of Sanders numbers. There really is only room for one other candidate given Biden and Sanders poll numbers. Otherwise, the rest of the field is simply too divided among too many candidates given Biden and Sanders have more than have of Democrats already locked up when their numbers are combined.

 

[U2Edge]

In this election cycle, polls are showing that Democrats price ELECTABILITY over how a candidate stands on the issues.

 

[AzogtheDefiler]

I'll take JB all day over Crazy Bernie, who wants to allow inmates to vote. Fruitcake.

 

[U2Edge]

Biden leads Trump by 6 points in first post-announcement poll

Joe Biden leads President Trump by six points, according to the first poll published after the former vice president officially announced his candidacy Thursday.


The April 25-26 Hill-HarrisX survey of 1,000 registered voters found that 43 percent said they would choose Biden while 37 percent said they would pick Trump. Fifteen percent of respondents said they were unsure and 5 percent said they would vote for another candidate.

Biden's 6-point lead was outside the poll's 3.1 percent sampling margin of error.

Biden: 43%

Trump: 37%

Unsure: 15%

another candidate: 5%

Bidens largest lead is among individuals ages 35 to 49:

Biden: 49%

Trump: 32%

Unsure: 15%

Other: 4%

Biden leads Trump by 6 points in first post-announcement poll

 

[U2Edge]

Take a look at the average of the last six polls in a race between BIDEN AND TRUMP:

BIDEN: 47.8%

TRUMP: 40.3%

read it here: RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

 

[Geaux4it]

The machine will dispatch Joe. He is not crazy enough for the new agenda

-Geaux

 

[Daryl Hunt]

The machine will dispatch Joe. He is not crazy enough for the new agenda

-Geaux

The other front runners, yesterday, cut loos on Biden until the Chairman of the Democratic Party stated that any candidate that didn't show unity would be in serious trouble. That threat means the lack of support in funds and other things. That was a warning to Warren and Bernie who cut loose pretty hard on Biden.

 

[ptbw forever]

In this election cycle, polls are showing that Democrats price ELECTABILITY over how a candidate stands on the issues.

Biden isn’t electable.

 

[ptbw forever]

Take a look at the average of the last six polls in a race between BIDEN AND TRUMP:

BIDEN: 47.8%

TRUMP: 40.3%

read it here: RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

Before Biden’s numbers are chopped up by the actual election.

 

[ptbw forever]

WRONG!

Iran has not invaded or annexed any countries like Saddam did. Iran has not fired any ballistic missiles at other countries like Saddam did. Iran has not seized and destroyed oil wells of another country vital to the global economy like Saddam did.

That's why regime change was justified in Iraq but not in Iran. Iran is generally a paper tiger that hides behind proxy's when conducting its foreign policy.

The rise of ISIS was in part due to the premature pullout of U.S. troops from Iraq at the end of 2011. U.S. troops returned to Iraq in 2014, and ISIS was largely defeated in Iraq by mid-2017. The only remaining territory ISIS currently controls is in Syria. As of today they control a space of territory along the Euphrates River in Syria that is a little less than 500 meters long and 250 meters wide.

Kuwait, Bahrain, U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Europe, Japan, the United Sates and the rest of the industrialized world all benefited from the removal of Saddam. Saddam was a threat to global energy supply and seized and sabotaged assets vital to global energy supply in the past setting off a global recession. You can't let someone like that remain in power. That's even before discussing is vast history with the production and use of WMD.


Nobody tricked Saddam into invading Kuwait on August 2, 1990. But even if they did, he was given a chance to leave Kuwait long before the operation to remove him from Kuwait began in January 1991. Instead of leaving Kuwait, Saddam ANNEXED Kuwait in mid-August 1990. NOBODY ever stated that Saddam had a right to ANNEX KUWAIT wiping it off the face of the map.

You would think that no one in the right mind would be willing to defend someone like SADDAM, but here you are doing just that. Wonder what you would say about Hitler.

Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism. Their goal is to establish a Persian Empire in the Middle East. Add Russia who wants to establish a world empire and that spells danger for the US.

Wow.

Could you be anymore a victim of propaganda?

NATO expansion map. (CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons)


Pelosi and McConnell Crank Up NATO Madness
Pelosi and McConnell Crank Up NATO Madness

These countries are joining NATO voluntarily in response to the threat of Russian hegemony. Figures you would compare Iran to NATO.

Do you even KNOW what hegemony means?

Russia has no hegemony over anyone.

Germany has greater singular hegemony.

Britain has greater hegemony.

France has greater hegemony.

Hell, even Italy.

"From now to 2020, slower growth developed countries those countries like France and Germany with 1.3 to 1.9% annual real GDP growth will lose ground to the USA (2.0-2.8% real GDP growth). Italy will really lag with about 1% annual real GDP growth. Japan could be really terrible with about 0.7% growth or could come in with just slow growth at 1.3% per year. Canada, Australia and the UK should be at the US level of growth or a little better. South Korea will move up with about 3.5% real GDP growth each year.


For developing countries, India and Indonesia should do well with 6-7% and possibly 8% real GDP growth."

Tell me, just where is Russia going to get this money to take over all the world?

Putin wants to restore the old USSR to its full glory. The USSR was a collection of countries enslaved by Russia. They clearly are interfering in other countries' elections to install leadership which is sympathetic to Russia.

Which party idealizes the hammer and sickle?

Putin completely controls the minds of Democrats.

 

[ptbw forever]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

Then add the electoral college slant and trump wins again in the face of popular choice...that would be 3rd or 4th time in recent history.

Hardly. Democrats did very well in Michigan and Pennsylvania. That brings them within a few votes of winning. Georgia and Arizona will be problem states for Republicans. All the Democrats need is 1 state to win.

Just one state, which state has 270 electoral votes?

Quit acting so stupid. Add Michigan and Pennsylvania, you get to around 266 electoral votes. Add 1 more state and you get 270.

Democrats are going to lose both of those states and more.

Check out how reparations polls in those states.

 

[whitehall]

The PPP aka Public Policy Poll is a democrat party affiliated poll. Less than a week before the election they had Hillary up by at least five points in every state.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism. Their goal is to establish a Persian Empire in the Middle East. Add Russia who wants to establish a world empire and that spells danger for the US.

Wow.

Could you be anymore a victim of propaganda?

NATO expansion map. (CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons)


Pelosi and McConnell Crank Up NATO Madness
Pelosi and McConnell Crank Up NATO Madness

These countries are joining NATO voluntarily in response to the threat of Russian hegemony. Figures you would compare Iran to NATO.

Do you even KNOW what hegemony means?

Russia has no hegemony over anyone.

Germany has greater singular hegemony.

Britain has greater hegemony.

France has greater hegemony.

Hell, even Italy.

"From now to 2020, slower growth developed countries those countries like France and Germany with 1.3 to 1.9% annual real GDP growth will lose ground to the USA (2.0-2.8% real GDP growth). Italy will really lag with about 1% annual real GDP growth. Japan could be really terrible with about 0.7% growth or could come in with just slow growth at 1.3% per year. Canada, Australia and the UK should be at the US level of growth or a little better. South Korea will move up with about 3.5% real GDP growth each year.


For developing countries, India and Indonesia should do well with 6-7% and possibly 8% real GDP growth."

Tell me, just where is Russia going to get this money to take over all the world?

Putin wants to restore the old USSR to its full glory. The USSR was a collection of countries enslaved by Russia. They clearly are interfering in other countries' elections to install leadership which is sympathetic to Russia.

Which party idealizes the hammer and sickle?

Putin completely controls the minds of Democrats.

 

[U2Edge]

The PPP aka Public Policy Poll is a democrat party affiliated poll. Less than a week before the election they had Hillary up by at least five points in every state.

That's true, but they are no worse than Rasmussen.

 

[U2Edge]

In the latest poll for TEXAS in a BIDEN VS TRUMP match up in 2020, BIDEN is ahead by 1 point!


EMERSON POLL: April 29, 2019

BIDEN: 50%

TRUMP: 49%


This is the first time BIDEN has beaten Trump in a poll in Texas. Texas is worth 38 electoral votes and has not gone BLUE since 1976. But since 2004, the support for the Republican candidate in Texas has been declining. In 2004, George W. Bush received 61% of the vote in Texas. In 2016 Donald Trump received only 52% of the vote in Texas, nearly a 10 point decline in just 12 years.

Polling this year indicates Texas is now a battle ground state. If Trump has to fight for Texas, and everything indicates he will, he has no chance of winning the overall election. The implications of Texas going Blue for the Republican party are ominous.

 

[U2Edge]

Since Joe Biden has announced he is running for President, he has increased his lead among the other Democratic candidates:

NEW CNN POLL OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES:

BIDEN: 39%

SANDERS: 15%

WARREN: 8%

Buttigieg: 7%

O'Rourke: 6%

Harris: 5%

Booker: 2%

Klobuchar: 2%

Gabbard: 2%

Yang: 1%

Castro: 1%

Inslee: 1%

 

[U2Edge]

NEW QUINNIPIAC POLL OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES:

BIDEN: 38%

WARREN: 12%

SANDERS: 11%

Buttigieg: 10%

Harris: 8%

O'Rourke: 5%

Booker: 2%

Klobuchar: 1%

Yang: 1%

Castro: 1%

Inslee: 1%



The Biden juggernaut is moving ahead.

 

[U2Edge]

Here is the realclearpolitics average of polls on the Democratic race at this point:

BIDEN: 32.8%

SANDERS: 19.4%

WARREN: 8.4%

Buttigieg: 8.4%

Harris: 7.2%

O'Rourke: 5.6%

Booker: 2.2%

Klobuchar: 1.4%

Yang: 1.4%

Castro: 1.2%

Gabbard: .8%

Inslee: .6%

Hickenlooper: .6%

Gillibrand: .4%

Ryan: .4%

Delaney: .4%

BIDEN is riding high with Bernie a distant second.

 

[U2Edge]

New CNN poll out today May 3, 2019 on the race between BIDEN and TRUMP.

BIDEN: 51%

TRUMP: 45%