Redfish
Diamond Member
He can tighten the race if he keeps on message. He's started to pivot and is generating fewer headlines. The bombastic stuff that should be red flags (lawyering up against Politico over accurately reporting his immigration flip flops) are more insider baseball stuff right now. If he stays like on topic and actually does some media buy ins he can get this pretty close.Actually, there is not much Trump CAN do
Looking at the top 10 states in electoral votes
California (55 EVs) Clinton +22
Texas (38 EVs) Trump +8.4
FL (29 EVs) Clinton +5
NY (29 EVs) Clinton + 17.3
IL (20 EVs) Clinton + 18
PA (20 EVs) Clinton +9.2
OH (18 EVs) Clinton +5
Mich (16 EVs) Clinton +7.3
NJ (14 EVs) Clinton +13.3
VA (13 EVs) Clinton + 11.2
Clinton leads in 9/10 largest states by at least +5%
In those states, she wins 214 out of 252 EVs
Meaning in the remaining 40 states, she only needs 56 out of 288 remaining EVs
RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House
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Can he win? I don't know. He needs FL, OH, and PA and those are some substantial margins. Nothing in the primary season is showing that polling related to Trump is off by any measurable ways. The pollsters were actually fairly dead on for Trump in most states. The average is probably pretty accurate. If he pulls up his national average maybe his numbers in those states will follow. I don't know.
I do know it's not over. Hillary seems to find ways to screw up, it's just now Trump hasn't been bailing her out by staying stupid things.
Trump can close ground if he stays on message. Problem is, there is a YUUGE gap to be made up
Both Hillary and the media will continue to bait him....can he use the ignore function?
Even with new handlers, Trump has shown an unwillingness to put his Twitter down
a couple % points is not a huge gap, its within the margin of error in most polls, and many of the polls you cited polled more dems than pubs.
the debates will probably determine who wins. If Hillary has a minor seizure or a brain freeze during the debates, its over. if he baits her and she blows up, its over.