itfitzme
VIP Member
Here is an interesting pub by the IPCC.
https://www.ipcc.unibe.ch/srex/downloads/SREX-Chap3_FINAL.pdf
Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
"There is generally low confidence in projections of changes in extreme winds because of the relatively few
studies of projected extreme winds, and shortcomings in the simulation of these events. An exception is
mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed, which is likely to increase, although increases may not occur in all ocean
basins. It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged.
There is low confidence in projections of small-scale phenomena such as tornadoes because competing physical
processes may affect future trends and because climate models do not simulate such phenomena. There is medium
confidence that there will be a reduction in the number of mid-latitude cyclones averaged over each hemisphere due
to future anthropogenic climate change. There is low confidence in the detailed geographical projections of mid-latitude
cyclone activity. There is medium confidence in a projected poleward shift of mid-latitude storm tracks due to future
anthropogenic forcings. "
"Uncertainty in projections of changes in large-scale patterns of natural climate variability remains large.
There is low confidence in projections of changes in monsoons (rainfall, circulation), because there is little consensus
in climate models regarding the sign of future change in the monsoons. Model projections of changes in El NiñoSouthern Oscillation variability and the frequency of El Niño episodes as a consequence of increased greenhouse g...."
I am just not seeing the "everyone predicted increased hurricanes." I am just finding what I'm finding. I am not trying to find anything in particular. Indeed, I was really hoping to find both a prediction of and data showing increases percipitations, storm size or frequency. I am not finding it.
I fact, I am finding the complete opposite, very low confidence here with even expectation of decrease. Not sure of the date.
What is it that some people are reading that has them believing things that turn out to be just not so? Wouldn't it be the IPCC, primarily, that one would go to for these kinds of statements? If not them, who is "everybody"?
https://www.ipcc.unibe.ch/srex/downloads/SREX-Chap3_FINAL.pdf
Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment
"There is generally low confidence in projections of changes in extreme winds because of the relatively few
studies of projected extreme winds, and shortcomings in the simulation of these events. An exception is
mean tropical cyclone maximum wind speed, which is likely to increase, although increases may not occur in all ocean
basins. It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged.
There is low confidence in projections of small-scale phenomena such as tornadoes because competing physical
processes may affect future trends and because climate models do not simulate such phenomena. There is medium
confidence that there will be a reduction in the number of mid-latitude cyclones averaged over each hemisphere due
to future anthropogenic climate change. There is low confidence in the detailed geographical projections of mid-latitude
cyclone activity. There is medium confidence in a projected poleward shift of mid-latitude storm tracks due to future
anthropogenic forcings. "
"Uncertainty in projections of changes in large-scale patterns of natural climate variability remains large.
There is low confidence in projections of changes in monsoons (rainfall, circulation), because there is little consensus
in climate models regarding the sign of future change in the monsoons. Model projections of changes in El NiñoSouthern Oscillation variability and the frequency of El Niño episodes as a consequence of increased greenhouse g...."
I am just not seeing the "everyone predicted increased hurricanes." I am just finding what I'm finding. I am not trying to find anything in particular. Indeed, I was really hoping to find both a prediction of and data showing increases percipitations, storm size or frequency. I am not finding it.
I fact, I am finding the complete opposite, very low confidence here with even expectation of decrease. Not sure of the date.
What is it that some people are reading that has them believing things that turn out to be just not so? Wouldn't it be the IPCC, primarily, that one would go to for these kinds of statements? If not them, who is "everybody"?
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