Yes. The Trump Campaign Thinks You Are Stupid

[320 Years of History]

I have to wonder whether the "rank and file" Trump supporters who cite the LA Times and Rasmussen polls are aware of the defects in those polls.


LA Times Poll clarified:

I wasn't aware of them for a time, and truly I didn't really care until I began to notice that no matter what Trump did, the LA Times one always had Trump ahead of Mrs. Clinton. I thought that was odd, most especially seeing as every other comparable poll showed a different result. It wasn't until I bothered to look for why that had happened that I realized in what regards the LA Times poll is not representationally faithful. But, hey, the poll's there and it gives Trump something to talk about.

• http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/upshot/a-favorable-poll-for-donald-trump-has-a-major-problem.html
• Donald Trump’s new favorite poll is way out of step with the polling average. But why?

Rasmussen Poll Inadequacies:

The Rasmussen poll too is inadequate. Some say because Scott Rasmussen left Rasmussen reports, and in saying so, detractors note that the declining value of Rasmussen's polling results can be traced almost directly to July 2013 when he left.

• Rasmussen Reports Bias Before And After Scott Rasmussen | People's Pundit Daily
• Poll Call
• Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race

Now if it makes you feel good to rely on those polls, fine. By all means, feel good. Just know that you'll feel that much worse when they turn out to have given you false comfort.


Polling Bias in Presidential Elections Explained