2016 Election Prediction Thread

[Toro]

Rubio could be a force. He's articulate, photogenic, would attract Hispanics, doesn't really offend anybody, would attract moderates, and would look like the future standing on stage with Hillary, who will look old.

OTOH, he's a bit of a lightweight, lacks experience, and hasn't accomplished a whole lot.

 

[Toro]

The left is making fun of The Clown Car meme, but they risk pulling the Democrat Party too far to the left.

Republicans don't have to win moderates. They just have to be competitive. Democrats have zero chance if they lose moderates. The more Bernie Sanders is on the stage, the lower the probability Hillary wins.

 

[Rexx Taylor]

Martin O'Malley is waiting for Hillary's Brain to "Expire" to the point where she no longer can recall anything that has ever happened in her life, then take her place.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Polling for the GOP field, at current, is essentially showing the same clusterfuck that it showed four years ago at this time, only in this case, instead of a candidate like Romney, who was perpetually stuck at right around 23%, no one is really getting much over 18%, because there are just so many of them.

The point I made on a number of other threads still remains: it is very, very possible that no clear frontronner will emerge, even as late as the mega-primary date of March 15th, 2016, when Florida, Ohio and Missouri (all WTA states) will be up for grabs. With Florida looking to be a major battleground between Bush (Jeb) and Rubio and if Kasich announces, then he has an easy shot of taking his home state of Ohio, that leaves Missouri as prime pickings, especially for another candidate from the South, like Huckabee or Graham (don't laugh, it could happen, but I consider it highly unlikely). Santorum, a Pennyslvanian, swept Missouri in 2012, in lieu of the lack of a Southern candidate, but in 2008, McCain just barely edged out Huckabee by about 1 point. In 2000, Bush easily won Missouri, with about the same topline percentage and the same margin as Santorum won in 2012. In 1996, Buchanan won Missouri - back then, it was a set of caucuses and not a primary. So, the pattern we see in Missouri is that it tends to go with the GOP candidate it considers the more Conservative of the bunch for that particular year. In 2000, Bush was considered more Conservative than McCain, but in 2008, McCain was considered more Conservative than Romney. Ditto in 2012, where Santorum was considered more Conservative than Romney. And there is no doubt that Buchanan was far more to the Right than Bob Dole in 1996, a year where Dole swept almost all of the primaries save Missouri, New Hampshire (also for Buchanan), the Louisiana Caucuses (also for Buchanan) but not the Louisiana primaries, and Arizona (Forbes won in Arizona).

So, it's very possible that March 15th brings the GOP no front-runner at all.

And there there is the 2nd-3rd tier candidate factor: A Carly Fiorina type of candidate can play the role of spoiler, especially in a huge state like California, rich in delegates.Ben Carson could maybe take Michigan or tilt it to a candidate like Rand Paul or Ted Cruz quite unexpectedly. Even to Marco Rubio.

So, right now, in my book all bets are off. Ted Cruz is raking in money and is the odds-on favorite in Texas, regardless of the Bush family standing there. Rand Paul is very likely, in spite of a sputtering campaign, to win his home state of Kentucky and should do well in Tennessee, also in very Libertarian-leaning states like the Dakotas, Montana, Alaska and Vermont, maybe Washington State or Oregon - not enough to win a nomination, but enough to keep anyone else from getting a majority of delegates.

More than ever before in my lifetime, I see a REAL possibility of a hung convention on the GOP side.

On the DEM side, it's already decided. More than 2 weeks after Chafee's official announcement and 6 weeks after Sander's announcement, Hillary is still towering over the other three declared DEM candidates, at between 57-60% nationally among Democrats and in most states, excepting New Hampshire. She is the odds-on favorite to sweep the DEM primaries quite easily and it would take a disaster of epic proportions to upend her campaign this time, seeing that there is no Obama-like figure to challenger her on the Democratic side. In a way, we are seeing a 1976-1980 redux, but this time, on the Democratic side, 2008-2016.

I am personally wondering if the first two GOP debates will help to winnow the field, or if will muddy it up even more.

Researching, I see that this is the most crowded GOP field of SERIOUS candidates since 1940, where Thomas Dewey went into the convention having won the most primaries (5 of 12 primaries in that year), but dark-horse Wendell Willkie was nominated on essentially the SEVENTH ballot (called the "6th ballot, after shifts"):

Republican Party presidential primaries 1940 - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

1940 Republican National Convention - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

There were more candidates than in 1940 in 2012, but not all of them were really serious candidates and by the time the primaries came along, a number of them had dropped out.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The left is making fun of The Clown Car meme, but they risk pulling the Democrat Party too far to the left.

Republicans don't have to win moderates. They just have to be competitive. Democrats have zero chance if they lose moderates. The more Bernie Sanders is on the stage, the lower the probability Hillary wins.

Not a chance. In fact, his presence pretty much guarantees that the opposite will happen.

 

[Statistikhengst]

So, you are predicting 383 EV, not far from where I am predicting. 332 + 51 = 383
And you are predicting that she will recapture three of the "Clinton 6" from 1992 and 1996., very similar to what I have been predicting.

I think Hillary will do very well for a good reason.

I don't see Bush picking up any of the votes the Weird Mormon Robot lost.

I do see HIllary picking up a lot of white women who wouldn't vote for Obama, but could vote for her.

If the Republicans were smart, they'd nominate Rubio. He could cut into the Hispanic vote in a way Romney couldn't.

Who in the world ever said that Republicans were smart?

 

[Wildman]

Martin O'Malley is waiting for Hillary's Brain to "Expire"...

she and all the demorats do not realize it but her brain expired shortly after she was hatched from an "expired" buzzard egg. being an independent, i will cast my vote for O'Malley in the primaries.

Hitlery is too old and mostly ugly, not only looks but character, honesty and integrity, barring pool reporters has angered the media, and that ain't good !!

 

[Rexx Taylor]

Martin O'Malley is waiting for Hillary's Brain to "Expire"...

she and all the demorats do not realize it but her brain expired shortly after she was hatched from an "expired" buzzard egg. being an independent, i will cast my vote for O'Malley in the primaries.

Hitlery is too old and mostly ugly, not only looks but character, honesty and integrity, barring pool reporters has angered the media, and that ain't good !!

we need to put Hillary on "Are You Dumber Than A Fifth Grader" anyone think she will get even one answer right? like, How Many Americans Died On Bengazi? Or "What Politician Blamed A Video On BenGhazi"???

 

[Toro]

The left is making fun of The Clown Car meme, but they risk pulling the Democrat Party too far to the left.

Republicans don't have to win moderates. They just have to be competitive. Democrats have zero chance if they lose moderates. The more Bernie Sanders is on the stage, the lower the probability Hillary wins.

Not a chance. In fact, his presence pretty much guarantees that the opposite will happen.

Why?

That's like saying the extremists on the Right are good for the GOP because it makes the eventual candidate look better.

The left is searching for a hero. The more Sanders is in the limelight, the greater the push to the left, and the more skittish moderates become.

TPP is a good example. Hillary supported that as SoS. Now she's silent because the base opposes it, and the party moves left.

 

[Rexx Taylor]

Martin O'Malley is waiting for Hillary's Brain to "Expire"...

she and all the demorats do not realize it but her brain expired shortly after she was hatched from an "expired" buzzard egg. being an independent, i will cast my vote for O'Malley in the primaries.

Hitlery is too old and mostly ugly, not only looks but character, honesty and integrity, barring pool reporters has angered the media, and that ain't good !!

they need to redo that "Your Brain On Drugs" ad. and obviously show a Hillary Speech moment as your brain on drugs.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The left is making fun of The Clown Car meme, but they risk pulling the Democrat Party too far to the left.

Republicans don't have to win moderates. They just have to be competitive. Democrats have zero chance if they lose moderates. The more Bernie Sanders is on the stage, the lower the probability Hillary wins.

Not a chance. In fact, his presence pretty much guarantees that the opposite will happen.

Why?

That's like saying the extremists on the Right are good for the GOP because it makes the eventual candidate look better.

The left is searching for a hero. The more Sanders is in the limelight, the greater the push to the left, and the more skittish moderates become.

TPP is a good example. Hillary supported that as SoS. Now she's silent because the base opposes it, and the party moves left.

Because in contrast to Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton will be perceived as even more centrist than she actually is and will therefore attract more, not less, independents.

And yes, the Sanderites of the USA will end up pulling the lever for Hillary over any prospective GOP candidate.

 

[Redfish]

The left is making fun of The Clown Car meme, but they risk pulling the Democrat Party too far to the left.

Republicans don't have to win moderates. They just have to be competitive. Democrats have zero chance if they lose moderates. The more Bernie Sanders is on the stage, the lower the probability Hillary wins.

Not a chance. In fact, his presence pretty much guarantees that the opposite will happen.

Why?

That's like saying the extremists on the Right are good for the GOP because it makes the eventual candidate look better.

The left is searching for a hero. The more Sanders is in the limelight, the greater the push to the left, and the more skittish moderates become.

TPP is a good example. Hillary supported that as SoS. Now she's silent because the base opposes it, and the party moves left.

Because in contrast to Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton will be perceived as even more centrist than she actually is and will therefore attract more, not less, independents.

And yes, the Sanderites of the USA will end up pulling the lever for Hillary over any prospective GOP candidate.

Hillary will never be president. Never. The dem power brokers are desperately looking for ways to keep her from the nomination. They know she is a loser and they hate the clintons. The money dems will keep her on the sidelines. Watch.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The left is making fun of The Clown Car meme, but they risk pulling the Democrat Party too far to the left.

Republicans don't have to win moderates. They just have to be competitive. Democrats have zero chance if they lose moderates. The more Bernie Sanders is on the stage, the lower the probability Hillary wins.

Not a chance. In fact, his presence pretty much guarantees that the opposite will happen.

Why?

That's like saying the extremists on the Right are good for the GOP because it makes the eventual candidate look better.

The left is searching for a hero. The more Sanders is in the limelight, the greater the push to the left, and the more skittish moderates become.

TPP is a good example. Hillary supported that as SoS. Now she's silent because the base opposes it, and the party moves left.

Because in contrast to Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton will be perceived as even more centrist than she actually is and will therefore attract more, not less, independents.

And yes, the Sanderites of the USA will end up pulling the lever for Hillary over any prospective GOP candidate.

Hillary will never be president. Never. The dem power brokers are desperately looking for ways to keep her from the nomination. They know she is a loser and they hate the clintons. The money dems will keep her on the sidelines. Watch.

Yeah, yeah, keep saying that to yourself...

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

 

[Redfish]

The left is making fun of The Clown Car meme, but they risk pulling the Democrat Party too far to the left.

Republicans don't have to win moderates. They just have to be competitive. Democrats have zero chance if they lose moderates. The more Bernie Sanders is on the stage, the lower the probability Hillary wins.

Not a chance. In fact, his presence pretty much guarantees that the opposite will happen.

Why?

That's like saying the extremists on the Right are good for the GOP because it makes the eventual candidate look better.

The left is searching for a hero. The more Sanders is in the limelight, the greater the push to the left, and the more skittish moderates become.

TPP is a good example. Hillary supported that as SoS. Now she's silent because the base opposes it, and the party moves left.

Because in contrast to Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton will be perceived as even more centrist than she actually is and will therefore attract more, not less, independents.

And yes, the Sanderites of the USA will end up pulling the lever for Hillary over any prospective GOP candidate.

Hillary will never be president. Never. The dem power brokers are desperately looking for ways to keep her from the nomination. They know she is a loser and they hate the clintons. The money dems will keep her on the sidelines. Watch.

Yeah, yeah, keep saying that to yourself...

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

I have inside info on what the DNC power brokers are doing. They do not want hilly as the nominee. they know she has zero charisma, is old, has failed, is corrupt, and eventually will blow during an interview or debate. She is toxic and they know it.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Not a chance. In fact, his presence pretty much guarantees that the opposite will happen.

Why?

That's like saying the extremists on the Right are good for the GOP because it makes the eventual candidate look better.

The left is searching for a hero. The more Sanders is in the limelight, the greater the push to the left, and the more skittish moderates become.

TPP is a good example. Hillary supported that as SoS. Now she's silent because the base opposes it, and the party moves left.

Because in contrast to Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton will be perceived as even more centrist than she actually is and will therefore attract more, not less, independents.

And yes, the Sanderites of the USA will end up pulling the lever for Hillary over any prospective GOP candidate.

Hillary will never be president. Never. The dem power brokers are desperately looking for ways to keep her from the nomination. They know she is a loser and they hate the clintons. The money dems will keep her on the sidelines. Watch.

Yeah, yeah, keep saying that to yourself...

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

I have inside info on what the DNC power brokers are doing. They do not want hilly as the nominee. they know she has zero charisma, is old, has failed, is corrupt, and eventually will blow during an interview or debate. She is toxic and they know it.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

 

[Redfish]

Why?

That's like saying the extremists on the Right are good for the GOP because it makes the eventual candidate look better.

The left is searching for a hero. The more Sanders is in the limelight, the greater the push to the left, and the more skittish moderates become.

TPP is a good example. Hillary supported that as SoS. Now she's silent because the base opposes it, and the party moves left.

Because in contrast to Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton will be perceived as even more centrist than she actually is and will therefore attract more, not less, independents.

And yes, the Sanderites of the USA will end up pulling the lever for Hillary over any prospective GOP candidate.

Hillary will never be president. Never. The dem power brokers are desperately looking for ways to keep her from the nomination. They know she is a loser and they hate the clintons. The money dems will keep her on the sidelines. Watch.

Yeah, yeah, keep saying that to yourself...

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

I have inside info on what the DNC power brokers are doing. They do not want hilly as the nominee. they know she has zero charisma, is old, has failed, is corrupt, and eventually will blow during an interview or debate. She is toxic and they know it.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

 

[Statistikhengst]

Because in contrast to Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton will be perceived as even more centrist than she actually is and will therefore attract more, not less, independents.

And yes, the Sanderites of the USA will end up pulling the lever for Hillary over any prospective GOP candidate.

Hillary will never be president. Never. The dem power brokers are desperately looking for ways to keep her from the nomination. They know she is a loser and they hate the clintons. The money dems will keep her on the sidelines. Watch.

Yeah, yeah, keep saying that to yourself...

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

I have inside info on what the DNC power brokers are doing. They do not want hilly as the nominee. they know she has zero charisma, is old, has failed, is corrupt, and eventually will blow during an interview or debate. She is toxic and they know it.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

At least we agree on one very important issue, you and I.

Hot women.

Gesendet von meinem GT-I9515 mit Tapatalk

 

[Nyvin]

The left is making fun of The Clown Car meme, but they risk pulling the Democrat Party too far to the left.

Republicans don't have to win moderates. They just have to be competitive. Democrats have zero chance if they lose moderates. The more Bernie Sanders is on the stage, the lower the probability Hillary wins.

Not a chance. In fact, his presence pretty much guarantees that the opposite will happen.

Why?

That's like saying the extremists on the Right are good for the GOP because it makes the eventual candidate look better.

The left is searching for a hero. The more Sanders is in the limelight, the greater the push to the left, and the more skittish moderates become.

TPP is a good example. Hillary supported that as SoS. Now she's silent because the base opposes it, and the party moves left.

Because with Sanders in the picture it's impossible to label Hillary "far left"

Also on a lot of issues the country really has moved left. Not saying this just as a partisan, but a lot of issues that were once rejected are now a lot more the norm.

 

[Pete7469]

Way too early.

I will be happy if Cruz, Carson, Paul, Walker, Perry, Fiorina, or even Rubio are on the ticket.

If it's a RINO like Bush, Graham, or Christie I will likely write in a cartoon character.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Way too early.

I will be happy if Cruz, Carson, Paul, Walker, Perry, Fiorina, or even Rubio are on the ticket.

If it's a RINO like Bush, Graham, or Christie I will likely write in a cartoon character.

I would gladly support you writing in a cartoon character, but you already have a number of them to choose from within the GOP-clown shortbus!