America’s Very Real Trucker Shortage — and What’s Driving It

[TNHarley]

My wifes family owns a trucking business. They cant find people to pass drug tests.
For every one that passes, one fails.
They are even giving out 1000K dollar referrals if they hire one.
IF they could find more drivers, they will buy more trucks.
The demand is there. Responsibility is not.
Since we have been married, almost 3 years, ONE driver has quit over the schedule. He quit to go work at a place that only does local deliveries. He probably dont make as much, but he is home.

 

[polarbear]

It's going to take a true AI to coordinate driver-less cars. Think of the millions of variables and split second choices that will need to be made because we all know that while we see automotive accident deaths as acceptable risk when cars are driverless there will be no risk tolerance given

True AI, if we ever actually get it to that point may be able to react quicker than a human when it comes down to split second decisions. That is true. We already rely on it in fly by wire systems for aircraft that trade off stability for higher maneuverability. But in an 80 000 lbs truck or say a 140 000 lbs B-train tractor trailer unit it takes a whole lot of foresight. If it comes down to the point where you have to make a split second decision, then you already have screwed up by letting it go that far. Simple example. On one of my trips going back north on I29 after a snow storm there was a horrific accident which killed many people. It was slippery and the right lane had "black ice" (you can`t see it, but find out the hard way).
The left lane was snow covered because all the traffic stayed on the slow lane.( traffic was mostly trucks...it was ~ 3 am and at that time there are almost no cars driving northbound from Fargo).
All the trucks stayed in the more slippery right lane because we know that you would "white out" everybody to the point of zero visibility if you were to change into the left lane. And that if you apply brakes in the right lane to slow down you will not be able to control your rig !!
Then I have seen a set of headlights in my mirrors way behind me in the left lane. There was enough time for me to slow down to a crawl by the time he came up beside me. It was some idiot in a 4wheel drive kicking up a huge cloud of snow while driving as if he was on I15 in Nevada. The trucks in front of me did not see him coming and all I could see through that cloud of snow were tail & break lights coming on and headlights pointed in all directions.
Total mayhem ! Later I found out that the fatalities also included several State Trooper who also were on that road at that time of the night. I have my doubts how an AI system would have handled a situation like that. More likely than not is that it would have done the same thing as the idiot in the 4WD and choose to drive on the left lane which was not as slippery as the right one where all the tires that rolled over the snow had changed it to black ice.
For humans it is not difficult to imagine how something would appear to somebody else from a different vantage point and they have no problems to act accordingly.
AI has no imagination and knows only what it has been programmed for. Else you could have used the AI we have so far to (imagine) design the one you are imagining.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

The mean annual earnings of a long haul driver is $37,390.

 

[Skull Pilot]

It's going to take a true AI to coordinate driver-less cars. Think of the millions of variables and split second choices that will need to be made because we all know that while we see automotive accident deaths as acceptable risk when cars are driverless there will be no risk tolerance given

True AI, if we ever actually get it to that point may be able to react quicker than a human when it comes down to split second decisions. That is true. We already rely on it in fly by wire systems for aircraft that trade off stability for higher maneuverability. But in an 80 000 lbs truck or say a 140 000 lbs B-train tractor trailer unit it takes a whole lot of foresight. If it comes down to the point where you have to make a split second decision, then you already have screwed up by letting it go that far. Simple example. On one of my trips going back north on I29 after a snow storm there was a horrific accident which killed many people. It was slippery and the right lane had "black ice" (you can`t see it, but find out the hard way).
The left lane was snow covered because all the traffic stayed on the slow lane.( traffic was mostly trucks...it was ~ 3 am and at that time there are almost no cars driving northbound from Fargo).
All the trucks stayed in the more slippery right lane because we know that you would "white out" everybody to the point of zero visibility if you were to change into the left lane. And that if you apply brakes in the right lane to slow down you will not be able to control your rig !!
Then I have seen a set of headlights in my mirrors way behind me in the left lane. There was enough time for me to slow down to a crawl by the time he came up beside me. It was some idiot in a 4wheel drive kicking up a huge cloud of snow while driving as if he was on I15 in Nevada. The trucks in front of me did not see him coming and all I could see through that cloud of snow were tail & break lights coming on and headlights pointed in all directions.
Total mayhem ! Later I found out that the fatalities also included several State Trooper who also were on that road at that time of the night. I have my doubts how an AI system would have handled a situation like that. More likely than not is that it would have done the same thing as the idiot in the 4WD and choose to drive on the left lane which was not as slippery as the right one where all the tires that rolled over the snow had changed it to black ice.
For humans it is not difficult to imagine how something would appear to somebody else from a different vantage point and they have no problems to act accordingly.
AI has no imagination and knows only what it has been programmed for. Else you could have used the AI we have so far to (imagine) design the one you are imagining.

You seem to think that no one else will be on the road with these big rigs
To get any type of reliable and safe driver less traffic every car will have to talk to every other car not only in front of but behind and on both sides as well then you have to add in vehicles that are merging into traffic as well possibly from areas where visibility is poor

Now throw human drivers in the mix that are wildly unpredictable and things get really dicey.

We are coming at the problem with the idea that each car can be individually programmed to react like a human rather than as a seamless integrated system of vehicles the latter of which I think is the only way to manage driverless cars

 

[Syriusly]

It's going to take a true AI to coordinate driver-less cars. Think of the millions of variables and split second choices that will need to be made because we all know that while we see automotive accident deaths as acceptable risk when cars are driverless there will be no risk tolerance given

I actually think that the coordination between vehicles is going to be the rather easy part for them to automate- the more difficult part will be for AI to figure out the actions of the vehicles driven by people- and other problems like pedestrians.

Like I said- autonomous trucks are already being used- just with drivers in them. For truckers- initially I think the challenge will be at both ends- how to automate the picking up of containers at a port? Coordinating the trailer being backed up to the correct warehouse dock?

But I think there is a bleak future for professional drivers in America- and that we are doing nothing to prepare for it.

 

[Skull Pilot]

It's going to take a true AI to coordinate driver-less cars. Think of the millions of variables and split second choices that will need to be made because we all know that while we see automotive accident deaths as acceptable risk when cars are driverless there will be no risk tolerance given

I actually think that the coordination between vehicles is going to be the rather easy part for them to automate- the more difficult part will be for AI to figure out the actions of the vehicles driven by people- and other problems like pedestrians.

Like I said- autonomous trucks are already being used- just with drivers in them. For truckers- initially I think the challenge will be at both ends- how to automate the picking up of containers at a port? Coordinating the trailer being backed up to the correct warehouse dock?

But I think there is a bleak future for professional drivers in America- and that we are doing nothing to prepare for it.

Every time technology makes a job obsolete people think it's going to be a disaster for the job market but it just hasn't happened

 

[Syriusly]

Again you are right. Most people are not aware what truck drivers really have to do. They think that all they do is sit behind the steering wheel like a taxi driver and that`s it. If they would know better they would be more courteous in traffic and not "lane hop" cutting in right in front of us or trying to pass us on the inside when we have to turn....and hope not to get flattened by the trailer which off-tracks way inside the tractor`s turn radius. It can get frustrating how often you get cut off when you have to turn at intersections and more often than not you arrive late for loading or unloading. And yet the same people who obstruct trucks expect to see the goods they transport in the stores when they go shopping. Just listen the next time you see a tractor trailer at an intersection how many gear shifts he has to make just to get across. You also have the average age for truckers pretty well pegged and that should be a cause for concern in any country especially in large countries like Canada or the US. For some reason politicians are not really concerned about it. In Canada they very obviously rely on immigrants to fill the gap.
The problem is that many of those come from countries where it`s a big deal if you are able to drive a car or just small trucks. Once here they get welfare and their transport truck license courtesy of the tax payer. On top of that they get to do all their tests with an examiner who is of the same ethnic group. They hand out licenses to people and let them loose on our roads driving heavy rigs, causing accidents that a qualified driver would have never gotten into. Normally such drivers get fired. But not if you are an immigrant who got sponsored by the government. Besides being shielded by political correctness they also come cheaper because the government subsidizes their wages.
Before these policies there were also restrictions to drive in mountainous regions like British Columbia, the Yukon or the Alaska highway and that was for good reasons ! But these extra qualifications are no longer required presumably to accommodate the kind of "truck drivers" I mentioned here.
I would advise anyone planning to drive on our roads to be wary of trucks, no kidding ! I could fill pages with the stuff I`ve seen when one of those drivers was behind the steering wheel.
It`s quite obvious that the rules and regs concerning trucking have been dictated by lobbyists none of whom represent the drivers ( the experienced and av.age 55 you mentioned) or the public`s interest (& or safety).

Thanks- I am no trucker but I deal with them and have heard much of what you said by people I know.

Something you didn't mention but another reason why younger people may not be considering the job is that automation is coming. Several companies are already testing autonomous trucks with drivers essentially as backups.

Why go into an industry that may eliminate 50% of the jobs within 10-15 years?

The younger people who stay away from trucking because they think automation can replace a long haul trucker made the right choice but for the wrong reason.
The only companies that could use autonomous trucks are the ones who do local deliveries. All they need is just a larger version of an autonomous Google car to get the goods from the local warehouse terminal to the stores. It would never be feasible if not outright impossible to implement that for the 1.st leg, the transport of products from the factories that produced them to the terminals where so called "day cabs" pick them up to deliver them in that particular city. Why would the first leg be so difficult?
Because one day you have to pick up a reefer, the next day it might be a flat bed trailer carrying an oversized load and on another you might have to pull a hopper trailer.
Each one requires special duties the driver has to perform and I am pretty sure that it would be fruitless and mega expensive trying to make the robotics that can perform everything a single long haul truck driver can do. What is the point of having an "autonomous" truck if you still need a driver as back up? You can save a lot of money and forget about the investment $$$ for the "autonomous" just by using a truck driver who knows when and how to chain up before driving into steep country on slippery roads, while an "autonomous" truck would still need a driver to decide when to chain up, when to remove them again and put then back on the chain racks. That`s just one example. It gets even more complicated with flat beds and oversized loads. The only thing the "autonomous" technology might be good for, is that there is no "on duty" time limit a human driver has to observe. It could keep on rolling down the interstate all day and all night.
To do just that it would be silly to spend all that money for that gimmick. You can do the same thing much cheaper with a pair of team drivers. Many of the long haul trucks are driven by teams who switch duty/rest cycles every 10 hours. But it`s not everybody`s cup of tea to be cooped up 24 hours/day with another guy and his smelly socks and underwear.
You have the choice to drive alone or as part of a team. But the point I am trying to make is that a 2.nd team driver will cost any company only a tiny fraction of the cost of a not so "autonomous truck" which still needs a real driver for all the other stuff besides just handling the steering wheel.

I appreciate your first hand knowledge.

I suspect one of the first things that autonomous trucks will do is replace team drivers with a single driver- so that one driver can do that hot load across the United States where it used to take two- the driver could sleep during the long freeway stretches.

I agree completely that the specialized loads will be a real challenge- and will take the longest to address- but the standard ocean containers and 53' trailers? I think it will be coming- like I said I know that at least one company is actually testing autonomous trucks with drivers in real service right now.

 

[Syriusly]

It's going to take a true AI to coordinate driver-less cars. Think of the millions of variables and split second choices that will need to be made because we all know that while we see automotive accident deaths as acceptable risk when cars are driverless there will be no risk tolerance given

I actually think that the coordination between vehicles is going to be the rather easy part for them to automate- the more difficult part will be for AI to figure out the actions of the vehicles driven by people- and other problems like pedestrians.

Like I said- autonomous trucks are already being used- just with drivers in them. For truckers- initially I think the challenge will be at both ends- how to automate the picking up of containers at a port? Coordinating the trailer being backed up to the correct warehouse dock?

But I think there is a bleak future for professional drivers in America- and that we are doing nothing to prepare for it.

Every time technology makes a job obsolete people think it's going to be a disaster for the job market but it just hasn't happened

I get what you are saying- and certainly the introduction of automobiles didn't ruin the economy just because buggy whip manufacturers lost jobs.

But I think that this industry- the transportation sector- that employees millions of Americans- truck drivers, cab drivers, Lyft and Uber- if autonomous cars and trucks do succeed- will have a huge impact on American workers- these are jobs that do not require a college degree, or deep knowledge of coding- they are blue collar jobs that require a specific skill set and temperment.

I think that this will have a huge impact- and I think even while there are lots of discussions about autonomous vehicles- no one is thinking of the impact this will have on the millions employed as drivers.

 

[Skull Pilot]

It's going to take a true AI to coordinate driver-less cars. Think of the millions of variables and split second choices that will need to be made because we all know that while we see automotive accident deaths as acceptable risk when cars are driverless there will be no risk tolerance given

I actually think that the coordination between vehicles is going to be the rather easy part for them to automate- the more difficult part will be for AI to figure out the actions of the vehicles driven by people- and other problems like pedestrians.

Like I said- autonomous trucks are already being used- just with drivers in them. For truckers- initially I think the challenge will be at both ends- how to automate the picking up of containers at a port? Coordinating the trailer being backed up to the correct warehouse dock?

But I think there is a bleak future for professional drivers in America- and that we are doing nothing to prepare for it.

Every time technology makes a job obsolete people think it's going to be a disaster for the job market but it just hasn't happened

I get what you are saying- and certainly the introduction of automobiles didn't ruin the economy just because buggy whip manufacturers lost jobs.

But I think that this industry- the transportation sector- that employees millions of Americans- truck drivers, cab drivers, Lyft and Uber- if autonomous cars and trucks do succeed- will have a huge impact on American workers- these are jobs that do not require a college degree, or deep knowledge of coding- they are blue collar jobs that require a specific skill set and temperment.

I think that this will have a huge impact- and I think even while there are lots of discussions about autonomous vehicles- no one is thinking of the impact this will have on the millions employed as drivers.

All manufacturing jobs that have become obsolete fit the same description and the doom never came.

This isn't going to happen overnight. It will take decades or longer before every car truck, train etc is operated without people.

Despite what the techno gurus predict driverless cars trucks etc while possible in 25 years will take far longer to be put into place in numbers large enough to have an effect on employment

 

[Syriusly]

It's going to take a true AI to coordinate driver-less cars. Think of the millions of variables and split second choices that will need to be made because we all know that while we see automotive accident deaths as acceptable risk when cars are driverless there will be no risk tolerance given

I actually think that the coordination between vehicles is going to be the rather easy part for them to automate- the more difficult part will be for AI to figure out the actions of the vehicles driven by people- and other problems like pedestrians.

Like I said- autonomous trucks are already being used- just with drivers in them. For truckers- initially I think the challenge will be at both ends- how to automate the picking up of containers at a port? Coordinating the trailer being backed up to the correct warehouse dock?

But I think there is a bleak future for professional drivers in America- and that we are doing nothing to prepare for it.

Every time technology makes a job obsolete people think it's going to be a disaster for the job market but it just hasn't happened

I get what you are saying- and certainly the introduction of automobiles didn't ruin the economy just because buggy whip manufacturers lost jobs.

But I think that this industry- the transportation sector- that employees millions of Americans- truck drivers, cab drivers, Lyft and Uber- if autonomous cars and trucks do succeed- will have a huge impact on American workers- these are jobs that do not require a college degree, or deep knowledge of coding- they are blue collar jobs that require a specific skill set and temperment.

I think that this will have a huge impact- and I think even while there are lots of discussions about autonomous vehicles- no one is thinking of the impact this will have on the millions employed as drivers.

All manufacturing jobs that have become obsolete fit the same description and the doom never came.

This isn't going to happen overnight. It will take decades or longer before every car truck, train etc is operated without people.

Despite what the techno gurus predict driverless cars trucks etc while possible in 25 years will take far longer to be put into place in numbers large enough to have an effect on employment

Well we shall see- won't we? I truly hope my predictions are completely wrong.

 

[polarbear]

Before any of that autonomous driving becomes a reality in the trucking industry we would first have to be able to make things that don`t malfunction. Is there anything you can think of besides a heavy duty sledge hammer or a crow bar that is on the market and is guaranteed never to fail? The aviation business has been trying to achieve that ever since they existed.
It is not the same thing to design an autonomous drone that can take off and land as opposed to an airliner which can seat several hundred people. For one thing nobody would kick up a big fuzz if a drone cracks up during a cross wind landing and sudden sporadic wind gusts.
Even though the Airbus or the latest Boeing autopilots could land a plane on a runway no airline would ever allow their pilots to keep texting their wife or girlfriend and leave the controls on auto pilot. The reason being that the carnage is far greater than it is if a drone screwed up.
Same difference between a heavy transport truck and an autonomous Uber taxi with just 1 or 2 people on board. The math is simple: E=1/2*mv^2. For the mass m you might as well plug in n as the number of people times their average weight and the number of $ the insurance company has to pay after they got injured or killed. If a car could cause the same amount of damage as a heavy truck you would have been paying all along the same high insurance premiums as they are for trucks. AI and automation is vastly over rated. Automated assembly lines are not a big deal. Each station does just simple jobs, like spot welding the same item all day long every day or driving in the same set of screws. Nothing really as complicated as trouble shooting and fixing a vehicle defect would be in comparison. For that you need a human mechanic !
If something malfunctions on a truck, like say in cold weather you get condensation in your compressor and the airlines it will freeze and your brake system will no longer function.
Stuff like that happens all the time and truck drivers are expected to fix it. Nobody wants to hire drivers that don`t know how and just sit there till somebody else helps them.
Especially if he is sitting on a railroad crossing after the spring brakes automatically locked up his wheels when the air-line pressure dropped out.
Some people say "but robots never take sick leave". Quite true, but what the same people would not know is how may days the mechanic who is supposed to fix the robot had to wait for the replacement parts to get shipped from over-seas. That may take a lot longer than the sick leave people like to take when they have a hang-over.

 

[polarbear]

An assembly line job is easily replaced using robotics. But as soon as a job requires ingenuity or imagination you are up shit creek without a paddle with AI and robotics:

 

[Manonthestreet]

The mean annual earnings of a long haul driver is $37,390.

I don't know where you got that figure but it looks ancient

 

[iamwhatiseem]

The mean annual earnings of a long haul driver is $37,390.

I don't know where you got that figure but it looks ancient

The Google God...said 2015

 

[Manonthestreet]

The mean annual earnings of a long haul driver is $37,390.

I don't know where you got that figure but it looks ancient

The Google God...said 2015

That's less than .30 per mile at 2500 miles per week so they must be including part time drivers cause .30 is an ancient base

 

[AsherN]

In the US a driver is allowed 10 hours on duty per day. "On duty" means you are waiting to load or unload, clear customs or deal with the Nazis at the weigh scales who`s only purpose is to come up with something so that they can fine you and you wind up loosing a week`s pay.

13 hours "On Duty", 12 hours driving. 30 minutes break every 8 hours. Exceptions made for major traffic incidents or weather. Max of 60 hours before a 36 hour reset is required. But hey, don't let facts get in the way.

 

[longknife]

Still, nobody is talking about local drivers.

 

[Shrimpbox]

Thank you polar bear for the wonderful education. What I would like like to point out is that many of the troubles you have so many other industries have, especially when it comes to small independent operators. The state or the federal bureaucracy can and does run roughshod over the little guys, especially when they want to.

These are some,of,the problems our delivery drivers run into. Huge deliveries with no help. A tv camera monitoring every thing move they make. A huge bias for anything the insurance company wants and no consideration for the driver. You can’t sip a drink, talk on your cell phone, look the wrong way without being punished. You are monitored for how long you spend at each stop. Like polar bears commentary, big companies only look at labor to squeeze out more sacrifices. I say that as a full supporter of capitalism but I tire of companies that determine what profit they want to have and then turn the screws on employees to attain that. That is not every company, but it is too many.

 

[Darkwind]

Companies need 50,000 and they’ll earn $80k per year. So, why is it so hard to find drivers? Here’s why:



Most said the answer is simple: The lifestyle is rough. You barely see your family, you rarely shower, and you get little respect from car drivers, police or major retailers. Michael Dow said he has been divorced twice because of trucking. Donna Penland said she gained 60 pounds her first year from sitting all day and a lack of healthful food on the road.



More @ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/28/america-has-a-massive-truck-driver-shortage-heres-why-few-want-an-80000-job/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.81485036b092

They rarely make 80k either.

Only OTR drivers who own their own vehicle make any serious money after all the fees and regulations that they have to pay for along with the maintenance of their truck. Even those who drive under their own authority (they do make 250k a year before costs) only bring home maybe 100k a year. That is for 70 hour weeks and home time that is measured in days a year.

 

[Darkwind]

Companies need 50,000 and they’ll earn $80k per year. So, why is it so hard to find drivers? Here’s why:



Most said the answer is simple: The lifestyle is rough. You barely see your family, you rarely shower, and you get little respect from car drivers, police or major retailers. Michael Dow said he has been divorced twice because of trucking. Donna Penland said she gained 60 pounds her first year from sitting all day and a lack of healthful food on the road.



More @ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/28/america-has-a-massive-truck-driver-shortage-heres-why-few-want-an-80000-job/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.81485036b092

That 80K is a myth. You get paid by the mile, but that`s not even a real mile as if you clocked it on the odometer.
Dispatch which credits the driver`s miles uses the shortest distance which more often than not is using roads that trucks aren`t allowed on. In the US a driver is allowed 10 hours on duty per day. "On duty" means you are waiting to load or unload, clear customs or deal with the Nazis at the weigh scales who`s only purpose is to come up with something so that they can fine you and you wind up loosing a week`s pay.
Anything will do. If you arrived somewhere in a time they claim is proof of speeding you get fined for speeding!
Log book infractions are their favorite. They can keep you there till the cows come home if they want to go through all the log pages that cover the last 30 days in order to fine you for having been a few minutes more than allowed on duty. They don`t care if you were in a long waiting line to clear customs or were stuck in traffic and that there was no way to park it and rest. In some cities like Chicago the trucking routes are so f-ed up it can take you more than 24 hours to deliver a load and get out of there again. In some other states there are long stretches without any pull-overs for trucks to rest. You can bet that on a road like that they will set up a mobile truck check, knowing full well that they can suck money out of every driver they have in their clutches.
I had a job in the high arctic, 6 month on & 6 months off. During my off time I drove long haul from Canada all the way up to the Southern US border and seen for my self how with the exception of highway patrol and State troopers everybody else treats truckers like shit. And that`s why there is a shortage of drivers for big rigs.

It's changed. You can now be on duty 14 hours of which, only 11 can be driving.