Arctic ice thins dramatically

[Chris]

 

[oreo]

The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some
places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the
Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports
from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers all point to a radical change in
climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.

Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far
north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters
showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been
replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at
many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while
vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far
north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few
years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make
most coastal cities uninhabitable.
====================_

I apologize, I neglected to mention that this report was from
November 2, 1922, as reported by the AP and published in
The Washington Post 88+ years ago_

 

[ScienceRocks]

08,22,2011, 5,178,281(forth)

mins
2002 5,646,875
2003 6,032,031
2004 5,784,688
2005 5,315,156
2006 5,781,719
2007 4,254,531*(first)
2008 4,707,813*(Second)
2009 5,249,844
2010 4,813,594*(third)


923,750 km^2 away from being number one. High order you bet. We would need to buttom out near sept 15th, so that would be 923,750/24 days=38,489 km^2 per day if the rate remained constant. We all know that it levels off within a bridge or concave shape, so it needs to be a good amount more...We need likely 70-80k per day early on and this would slow to a very slow mount within thousands on the peak. Likely won't occur.

 

[Old Rocks]

The area of the Arctic Ice is the fourth lowest already, and there is significant amounts of thick ice going south along the East coast of Greenland.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png

Cryosphere Today - Northern Hemisphere Cryosphere Animation

This was not supposed to be a year in which the Arctic showed very rapid warming. In fact, there should have been a return to more ice area, and a thickening as well. What we see is the continuation of the smaller ice area from 2007, and a very slight increase in volume, still way below the slope of the curve;


http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png?<?php echo time() ?

 

[gslack]

The area of the Arctic Ice is the fourth lowest already, and there is significant amounts of thick ice going south along the East coast of Greenland.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png

Cryosphere Today - Northern Hemisphere Cryosphere Animation

This was not supposed to be a year in which the Arctic showed very rapid warming. In fact, there should have been a return to more ice area, and a thickening as well. What we see is the continuation of the smaller ice area from 2007, and a very slight increase in volume, still way below the slope of the curve;


http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png?<?php echo time() ?

4th lowest? Oh my!

And what was last year? The year before? Was it continuously warming? You know if this year was 4th, then last year would have been 5th, then 6th etc... ANd of course next year has to be third and so on... oh... no??? Well then I guess its just one of those weather things then huh...

 

[Old Rocks]

Still demonstrating what a dumb ass you are. All one has to do is take one look at this graph to see how dramatically the summer sea ice has diminished.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png

No, it doesn't move in a nice straight line. It shows the downward slope of the line with natural variability overlaying that line. So it may remain at 3 milion square miles for a few more years, then dramatically decline as it did in 2007. But decline it will. And the effects of the decline will be increasing felt as the clathrates destabalize, and the permofrost continues to melt and emit CO2 and CH4.

 

[gslack]

Still demonstrating what a dumb ass you are. All one has to do is take one look at this graph to see how dramatically the summer sea ice has diminished.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png

No, it doesn't move in a nice straight line. It shows the downward slope of the line with natural variability overlaying that line. So it may remain at 3 milion square miles for a few more years, then dramatically decline as it did in 2007. But decline it will. And the effects of the decline will be increasing felt as the clathrates destabalize, and the permofrost continues to melt and emit CO2 and CH4.

See grenpeace, you are so entrenched in your propaganda you forget a basic concept in your belief system that makes it illogical.

1. If it did have natural variability as you stated above, than the variability is natural...

2. IF CO2 causes warming as you keep contending, and CO2 has continuously risen like a clock over the last 150 or so years as you keep contending, than it stands to reason the temperature would have continued to rise along with that CO2 increase. But it has not...

3. The Ice can only do one of 3 things. It can increase, decrease or stay the same. If it increases one year and decreases the next and stays the same the next, it over that 3 years decreased. If it decreased one year then increased the next and then stayed the same the 3rd year it increased overall for the 3 year period. Now the same principles apply over 3, 6, 9, or even 2,000,000 years. And since we have only been recording ice coverage about 30 years compared to the millions we have had ice coverage, what can we say regarding the ice coverage over all? Or for that matter given the fact ice has increased drastically and decreased drastically in even just the last few thousand years, what can we say about natural variability in all of this?

Get your head out of the greenpeace propaganda for a while...

 

[Chris]

 

[westwall]

I see there is still more ice then there was in 2007. How is that possible in this ever warming world?

 

[Old Rocks]

Both Northwest and Northeast Passages open for business.

SeaNews: First Ever Suezmax Plying North-East Passage

First Ever Suezmax Plying North-East Passage
23 August 2011, 17:41 / SeaNews / Rating: 107
August 20 the Sovcomflot-owned tanker &#8220;Vladimir Tikhonov&#8221; left Murmansk for the North-East Passage. The ship loaded 120,000 tons of condensed gas in Honningsvag (Norway). In Murmansk bunkering operations and customs formalities were completed.

The cargo produced by Novatek is designated for SE Asia. The ship is to reach the destination in the second half of September. This is not the first shipment of Novatek&#8217;s cargo along the North-East Passage. This summer the product tanker &#8220;Perseverance&#8221; carried condensed gas to Ningbo. And last year, the &#8220;SCF Baltica&#8221; completed a test shipment to the same port.

This week another ship is to set sail for the North-East passage, the &#8220;Sanko Odissey&#8221; with some 70,000 tons of iron ore concentrate designated for China. The shipper is EuroChem, which has also already tested the Arctic route earlier this year when two MSCo&#8217;s bulkers carried its cargo to China.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

 

[gslack]

Both Northwest and Northeast Passages open for business.

SeaNews: First Ever Suezmax Plying North-East Passage

First Ever Suezmax Plying North-East Passage
23 August 2011, 17:41 / SeaNews / Rating: 107
August 20 the Sovcomflot-owned tanker “Vladimir Tikhonov” left Murmansk for the North-East Passage. The ship loaded 120,000 tons of condensed gas in Honningsvag (Norway). In Murmansk bunkering operations and customs formalities were completed.

The cargo produced by Novatek is designated for SE Asia. The ship is to reach the destination in the second half of September. This is not the first shipment of Novatek’s cargo along the North-East Passage. This summer the product tanker “Perseverance” carried condensed gas to Ningbo. And last year, the “SCF Baltica” completed a test shipment to the same port.

This week another ship is to set sail for the North-East passage, the “Sanko Odissey” with some 70,000 tons of iron ore concentrate designated for China. The shipper is EuroChem, which has also already tested the Arctic route earlier this year when two MSCo’s bulkers carried its cargo to China.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

Ah yes, keep repeating the same things we all know full and well have happened time and again before like its some kind of scary thing...

 

[wirebender]

Ah yes, keep repeating the same things we all know full and well have happened time and again before like its some kind of scary thing...

It's kind of impossible for them to talk about the climate in terms of things that have never happened before so they wring thier hands over what the can. Some people just need to worry and don't have it within themselves to relax. Even when things are great, they are just waiting for something to go wrong and after a lifetime of that sort of attitude, they can't help but end up as bitter, old, handwringing women.

 

[Trakar]

...Soooooo riddle me this batman......if the Arctic has never been warmer how is it that grapes were able to be cultivated 300 miles further north during the MWP then they are today? Hmmmm???? The Domesdy Book has records of 47 wineries that existed where none can today...

Got reference?

First of all, it is a non sequitor to even attempt to use pre-instrumental, anecdotal English temperature approximations as a proxy for Arctic temperatures.
That said, my looking at the Domesday records indicates all of the vineyards appear to lie below a line from Ely (Cambridgeshire) to Gloucestershire. Since the Book covers all of England up to the river Tees (north of Yorkshire), there is no compelling reason to think that there were many, if any, vineyards north of that line. Currently, however there are some more than 100 English and Welsh vineyards above that line, including several around Yorkshire.

Of course, all of this is ridiculous, nothing in modern climate change understanding indicates that today's temperatures represent "all time global records," of unmatched and unexceeded local or global outlier maxima, rather, modern climate theories and understandings look at the physical causes of climate change and compare what we know about the physical effects and the historic record to understand which of the multiple drivers or combination of drivers, can best explain the observations. For the end of the 20th century, and the start of the 21rst century, the rise in greenhouse gases (with occassional buffering by the odd volcano and the concomittant industrial pollution rises in both SO2 and particulate pollution), seem to well and compellingly address the changes being seen.

 

[Trakar]

Ooooh, 8-bit graphics, I'm impressed....

Interestingly, his 8-bit graphics convey a lot more substance than your 2-bit commentary.

 

[gslack]

...Soooooo riddle me this batman......if the Arctic has never been warmer how is it that grapes were able to be cultivated 300 miles further north during the MWP then they are today? Hmmmm???? The Domesdy Book has records of 47 wineries that existed where none can today...

Got reference?

First of all, it is a non sequitor to even attempt to use pre-instrumental, anecdotal English temperature approximations as a proxy for Arctic temperatures.
That said, my looking at the Domesday records indicates all of the vineyards appear to lie below a line from Ely (Cambridgeshire) to Gloucestershire. Since the Book covers all of England up to the river Tees (north of Yorkshire), there is no compelling reason to think that there were many, if any, vineyards north of that line. Currently, however there are some more than 100 English and Welsh vineyards above that line, including several around Yorkshire.

Of course, all of this is ridiculous, nothing in modern climate change understanding indicates that today's temperatures represent "all time global records," of unmatched and unexceeded local or global outlier maxima, rather, modern climate theories and understandings look at the physical causes of climate change and compare what we know about the physical effects and the historic record to understand which of the multiple drivers or combination of drivers, can best explain the observations. For the end of the 20th century, and the start of the 21rst century, the rise in greenhouse gases (with occassional buffering by the odd volcano and the concomittant industrial pollution rises in both SO2 and particulate pollution), seem to well and compellingly address the changes being seen.

More posturing from the fake.....

Got reference?

Is that your anal attempt to dismiss this well established and known fact, or just you being a douchebag again? I think it was the second one so I am going to ignore it...

First of all, it is a non sequitor to even attempt to use pre-instrumental, anecdotal English temperature approximations as a proxy for Arctic temperatures.

Then its equally true trying to use the last 150 years to establish catastrophic global warming, or the last 30 years to do the same regarding ice fluctuations. You can't have a legitimate argument on this if you are going to arbitrarily decide what is and is not evidence based on convenience for your own side.

That said, my looking at the Domesday records indicates all of the vineyards appear to lie below a line from Ely (Cambridgeshire) to Gloucestershire. Since the Book covers all of England up to the river Tees (north of Yorkshire), there is no compelling reason to think that there were many, if any, vineyards north of that line. Currently, however there are some more than 100 English and Welsh vineyards above that line, including several around Yorkshire.

And?... Exactly where in all of that rambling did you establish anything that contradicts or even brings doubt onto his assertions? Seriously man, you have something wrong with your head... He pointed out that vineyards hundreds of years ago where none could have been and you point out that there are some vineyards near there now? SO freaking what? It establishes the fact this warming is NOT out of natural variability even more so... Jesus you are thick for a guy trying to pretend to be so smart...

Of course, all of this is ridiculous, nothing in modern climate change understanding indicates that today's temperatures represent "all time global records," of unmatched and unexceeded local or global outlier maxima, rather, modern climate theories and understandings look at the physical causes of climate change and compare what we know about the physical effects and the historic record to understand which of the multiple drivers or combination of drivers, can best explain the observations. For the end of the 20th century, and the start of the 21rst century, the rise in greenhouse gases (with occassional buffering by the odd volcano and the concomittant industrial pollution rises in both SO2 and particulate pollution), seem to well and compellingly address the changes being seen.

I made the obvious idiotic part bigger and bold to point it out... Read that again tool... BINGO! Get it yet slow boy? Just as that does not mean we are colder today than back then, the same holds true for climate models predictions and claims based on a small example of temps, ice coverage changes, and anomalous things that people like YOU keep pulling out of your ass and calling proof of climate change...

You idiots are so desperate for global warming to be true you stop seeing anything as it really is, and instead see it as your faith wishes it to be. You are supposed to be so smart... WHAT in the hell gave that idea? You talk and talk in circles making no sense, often undermining your own argument and then try and pretend some higher intellect or understanding.....WOW!

 

[Trakar]

I knew this was going to end bad. Trakar's info = Good, well documented amoungst the peer reviewed groupies on the take.
Wirebender' info = bad, not documented amoungst the peer reviewed groupies on the take.

This is why I won't jump through those hoops.

So its not just ignorance of the science, its a global conspiracy by scientists too?!

Seriously?!

This just went from sad to pitiful.

I told you to follow the money, sorry the comprehension level is low on your end. Seems quite obvious to most, Trakar. Yes that is pitiful, tsk, tsk

Oh, I've followed the money quite well, but it seems to lead in a direction different than you advocate:

Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study - Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study | Environment | The Guardian

BUSH AIDE EDITED CLIMATE REPORTS - NYTimes.com
and it follow-on companion piece
Ex-Bush Aide Who Edited Climate Reports to Join ExxonMobil - New York Times

While Washington Slept | Politics | Vanity Fair

Bray, D. & von Storch, H. CliSci2008: A Survey of the Perspectives of Climate Scientists Concerning Climate Science and Climate Change, GKSS Report (2010).

-- No Title -- (wjh13f00)

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXyTpY0NCp0]Answering Climate Change Skeptics, Naomi Oreskes - YouTube[/ame]

http://msl1.mit.edu/furdlog/docs/2007-08-13_newsweek_global_warming_denyers.pdf

Requiem for a species: why we resist the truth about climate change
Requiem for a species: why we resist ... - Google Books

 

[gslack]

So its not just ignorance of the science, its a global conspiracy by scientists too?!

Seriously?!

This just went from sad to pitiful.

I told you to follow the money, sorry the comprehension level is low on your end. Seems quite obvious to most, Trakar. Yes that is pitiful, tsk, tsk

Oh, I've followed the money quite well, but it seems to lead in a direction different than you advocate:

Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study - Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study | Environment | The Guardian

BUSH AIDE EDITED CLIMATE REPORTS - NYTimes.com
and it follow-on companion piece
Ex-Bush Aide Who Edited Climate Reports to Join ExxonMobil - New York Times

While Washington Slept | Politics | Vanity Fair

Bray, D. & von Storch, H. CliSci2008: A Survey of the Perspectives of Climate Scientists Concerning Climate Science and Climate Change, GKSS Report (2010).

-- No Title -- (wjh13f00)

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXyTpY0NCp0]Answering Climate Change Skeptics, Naomi Oreskes - YouTube[/ame]

http://msl1.mit.edu/furdlog/docs/2007-08-13_newsweek_global_warming_denyers.pdf

Requiem for a species: why we resist the truth about climate change
Requiem for a species: why we resist ... - Google Books

Douchebag I am so tired of your immaturity now... You post a challenge and then when it comes to you you run like a coward and pick another... Man up punk.. You aren't smart, you aren't cute, and you most certainly are nowhere near as educated as you try and pretend..

For once just stand by a claim you make and not run away.... Freaking coward...

 

[percysunshine]

You know, the clueless acolytes are always the last people to figure out that they have been lied to. Except, by then, it is too late to do anything about it.

 

[westwall]

So its not just ignorance of the science, its a global conspiracy by scientists too?!

Seriously?!

This just went from sad to pitiful.

I told you to follow the money, sorry the comprehension level is low on your end. Seems quite obvious to most, Trakar. Yes that is pitiful, tsk, tsk

Oh, I've followed the money quite well, but it seems to lead in a direction different than you advocate:

Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study - Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study | Environment | The Guardian

BUSH AIDE EDITED CLIMATE REPORTS - NYTimes.com
and it follow-on companion piece
Ex-Bush Aide Who Edited Climate Reports to Join ExxonMobil - New York Times

While Washington Slept | Politics | Vanity Fair

Bray, D. & von Storch, H. CliSci2008: A Survey of the Perspectives of Climate Scientists Concerning Climate Science and Climate Change, GKSS Report (2010).

-- No Title -- (wjh13f00)

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXyTpY0NCp0]Answering Climate Change Skeptics, Naomi Oreskes - YouTube[/ame]

http://msl1.mit.edu/furdlog/docs/2007-08-13_newsweek_global_warming_denyers.pdf

Requiem for a species: why we resist the truth about climate change
Requiem for a species: why we resist ... - Google Books

Well here is a list of a FEW of the payments that Phil Jones recieved from the US DOE for "research". This is from one US agency to one guy. Kinda pales in comparison to the offer of 10,000 plus expenses listed in the first article.



From Verity Jones in comments:


From an Excel file released with the emails in November. US DOE Funding only:

Funding Source, Investigators, Grant Title, Funding, Start Date, End Date

US DEPT OF ENERGY Prof PD JONES, Prof TML WIGLEY Detection of CO2 induced climate change (Suppl.) – cum. total £540,956, original start date 01/12/90 £128,000 01/03/1995 29/02/1996

US DEPT OF ENERGY Prof PD JONES, Prof TML WIGLEY Detection of greenhouse gas induced climate change (Suppl.) – cum. total £672,956, original start date 01/12/90 £132,000 01/03/1996 28/02/1997

US DEPT OF ENERGY Prof PD JONES, Prof TML WIGLEY Detection of greenhouse gas induced climate change (Suppl.) – cum. total £797,956, original start date 01/12/90 £125,000 01/03/1997 28/02/1998

US DEPT OF ENERGY Prof PD JONES, Prof TML WIGLEY Climate data analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change £99,555 01/05/1998 30/04/1999

US DEPT OF ENERGY Prof PD JONES, Prof TML WIGLEY Climate data analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change (Suppl.) £102,752 01/05/1999 30/04/2000

US DEPT OF ENERGY Prof PD JONES Climate data analysis and models for the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change £106,151 01/05/2000 30/04/2001

US DEPT OF ENERGY Prof PD JONES, Prof TML WIGLEY Climate data and analysis from the study of natural variability and anthropogenic change £212,500 01/05/2001 30/04/2003

US DEPT OF ENERGY Prof PD JONES, Prof TML WIGLEY Climate Data and Analysis – Study of Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Change. – Supp awarded £88,756 – 30.3.06 £262,629 01/05/2004 30/05/2006

 

[Trakar]

The negative bias was discussed in the initial release of ERA-40. It is but one set of data amongst many overlapping coverages, and its removal from the other data sources, does not significantly alter or change the overall findings or climate assessments. so your point would be?

One data set that has over 2000 citations in published work. Every paper that cites that data set is untrustworthy.

Which clearly demonstrates the level of ignorance regarding scientific citation and practice that you bring to the table. Scientific citation often includes works that represent contradictory information or even information that has been found flawed or otherwise incomplete. Anytime a research is mentioned or alluded to, whether it is supportive, or contradictory, it is supposed to be cited and referenced in any published study. In the case of the ERA-40 data the bias was detected, acknowledge and accounted for in the study that originally produced the data. Why would this cause you to believe that this invalidates that original study or data? Moreover, how would the citation of this study or data invalidate any other study that lists a citation to that study or data?