Battle of Bakhmud won by Russia

[Kruska]

The war will not be won by grinding out a few meters at a time in trench warfare. The war will be won when one side convinces the other side it has lost and I am convinced it will be the Ukrainians and their allies who will convince Russia it has lost this war.

The brilliance of last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive and its importance cannot be overestimated. The Ukrainians talked all summer long about the coming offensive near Kherson so convincingly that Russia moved troops there to meet it, leaving he northeast only lightly defended and no one in the Russian military or Russian intelligence had any idea what was coming. When the offensive began in the northeast instead of near Kherson and the Russians were routed from Kharkiv, it sent shockwaves through the Russian leadership and Russian military bloggers and even some hosts on state run TV and some have still not recovered. This was step one in convincing the Russians they have lost the war.

Step two in convincing Russia it has lost the war has been Russia's failure to make any significant military gains despite massive artillery and missile bombardments for eight months and a massive loss of personnel and tanks and artillery pieces that Russian cannot replace as quickly as they are being lost, the greater unity and energy of the EU to supply Ukraine with better weapons and ammunition, the news that Russia's revenues for Jan and Feb are down nearly 50% from last year, indictments of Russian leaders for war crimes by the ICC and the creeping realization that this war is making Russia a Chinese vassal state.

Step three in convincing Russia it has lost the war will be, I hope, another brilliant Ukrainian counteroffensive. And then growing doubts about Russia's ability to win this war and the terrible cost of pursuing will begin to be given voice among Russian leaders and bloggers and Russia will slowly begin to seek the best deal it can get to retreat from Ukraine.

Well you are citing the entire Western Media propaganda show, incl. the China garbage - so if you have reasons to believe these accounts - it's up to you.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Well you are citing the entire Western Media propaganda show, incl. the China garbage - so if you have reasons to believe these accounts - it's up to you.

I see you are still in denial. Maybe this will help you see more clearly. Russia began this war with a huge disadvantage, it thought it had a much more powerful and capable military and intelligence service than it does; it is likely even Putin thought so. If the Russian leadership had understood before the war started that it would take so long and cost Russia so much, they never would have invaded because there in nothing to be gained in Ukraine that is worth the terrible price Russia is paying to pursue the war; so, with time and experience, the Russian leadership will come to realize how much less powerful the Russian military was at the start of the war than they had thought and how much less powerful they are now a year later, and arrive at the conclusion they never could have won this war.

 

[para bellum]

The brilliance of last year's Ukrainian counteroffensive and its importance cannot be overestimated. The Ukrainians talked all summer long about the coming offensive near Kherson so convincingly that Russia moved troops there to meet it, leaving he northeast only lightly defended and no one in the Russian military or Russian intelligence had any idea what was coming. When the offensive began in the northeast instead of near Kherson and the Russians were routed from Kharkiv, it sent shockwaves through the Russian leadership and Russian military bloggers and even some hosts on state run TV and some have still not recovered. This was step one in convincing the Russians they have lost the war.

The Kherson offensive was already underway, but it was a different kind of offensive. Recall, the Putinheads said it had failed after 2 weeks, but it was never meant to be over that quickly. It was intended to push the Russians back across the Dnipro, and it was successful. And a strategic victory because it took away the route to Odesa, at least for the foreseeable future.

The Kharkiv offensive was an important strategic victory for Ukraine because it took away the main supply route from the Western Military District to the northern Donbas grouping (who were HQ'd in Izium). Voronezh is the HQ for the 20th Combined Arms Army, and the main hub for supplies and troops going to Ukraine.

When the AFU took Kramatorsk, they cut that supply line. That also meant everything coming from the training grounds in Belgorod and Kursk had to take the long way around to Millerovo. When you extend your enemy's supply line, you slow down the reinforcements and materiel coming to the front.

The supplies start at Voronezh. They can go west to Stary Oskol or south to Liski. From Stary Oskil they can go to Belgorod or Valuyki, from Liski they can go to Valuyki or Millerovo.

Without Kupyansk, there is no way to supply Izium, and the northern salient of the Donbas offensive failed. That was the northern half of the great pincer that was going to encircle the AFU in the Donbas.

The southern pincer began at Popasna, would run through Bakhmut to Sloviansk. and meet up with the 20th CAA from Izium. The JFO are captured, the war is won, etc.

When Izium fell, the great encirclement failed. The Putinheads coped by telling themselves that Bakhmut was an important strategic target and needed to be reinforced by the Izium group. That was about 7 months ago, and has apparently culminated with the heroic near-encirclement of Bakhmut.

What started as an "encirclement and capture" war was turned into a head-on, brute-force war of attrition- with Russia's greater mass pitted against Ukraine's better application of 21st century technology and precision fires.

That's what makes the Kharkiv offensive a strategic victory.

 

[Kruska]

....Russia began this war with a huge disadvantage, it thought it had a much more powerful and capable military and intelligence service than it does; it is likely even Putin thought so.

Anyone who has spoken/dealt with Putin would verify to you; he is a very intelligent person and his favorite strategy is intimidation - not just by words but rather via actions.
Russia's military leadership; anyone who has spoken or dealt with Russian commanders from Brigade-level upward, would verify that they are just as capable as their NATO opposites. They are very well aware about which units are useful/capable (core units) and which ones primarily serve statistical purposes.

Therefore, there is absolutely no way that the Russian MoD and it's respective heads of staffs would have told Putin; yes Boss, 95,000 Russian combat troops are enough to conquer and occupy Ukraine. Europe's second largest country with it's Armed Forces (around 90,000 combat troops) and around 75,000 reservists mostly on a 24h alert since 6 month.

So it's up to you to work out some 'theories" as to why Putin ordered that kind of numbers to attack Ukraine - foremost Kiev. And not some Western Media bull - 3 days and so on.

there in nothing to be gained in Ukraine that is worth the terrible price Russia is paying

Actually shows that you got no idea as to why this war got started in the first place. And that Russia would be willing to loose a million man for that and more.

 

[ESay]

Therefore, there is absolutely no way that the Russian MoD and it's respective heads of staffs would have told Putin; yes Boss, 95,000 Russian combat troops are enough to conquer and occupy Ukraine. Europe's second largest country with it's Armed Forces (around 90,000 combat troops) and around 75,000 reservists mostly on a 24h alert since 6 month

First of all, your figure of 95 000 of Russian combat troops is quite low. The figures I have met vary from 120 000 to 170 000.

And yes, simple logic tells that the Russians expected Ukraine to be an easy prey. Only that can explain why they decided to move from 4 main directions expanding from the Chernobyl zone on the north to Mykolaiv on the south.

Also this simple logic tells that if a serious resistance was expected, then the main direction for the offensive should have been through and around the Donbas region to encircle and crush the main grouping of Ukrainian army, so called United forces were located there.

Basically they tried to do that in May, when the battle for Donbas was announced. But at that time the Ukrainian army was already able to regroup and draft the reservists.

 

[gipper]

That’s one of your buddies from the Azov. I think he’s the last known living member.

 

[JohnDB]

Again a very one-sided view or comment.

What's really nuts is that despite all the weapon and ammo supply given to Ukraine and Ukraine having since May/June a 2:1 or rather 3:1 advantage in manpower compared to Russian troops involved in Ukraine, they still haven't won anything significant yet - they are not even able to liberate those 20-25% of Russian occupied territory after 13 month.

Russia population 145.6 million people
Ukraine population 41 million people

Russian GDP 1.779 Trillion
Ukraine GDP 200 Billion (2021 numbers since Russia invaded....was 347 Billion)

Huge disparity in manpower/soldiers and income. Russia has a huge advantage over Ukraine in both size of military and equipment available to them. Ukraine has a fraction of the manpower or ability to purchase weapons. They literally are a farming nation. They deal in groceries not oil.

All those battles that have been fought on people's farms and farm houses hasn't given you a clue yet? The reason why you aren't seeing the tractors is because the Russians have stolen them and taken them to Russia back during the initial invasion.

I think that the Ukranians have fought bravely and with great success....this is the teacup poodle going up against the Rottweiler....and the poodle is doing very well.

 

[Kruska]

First of all, your figure of 95 000 of Russian combat troops is quite low. The figures I have met vary from 120 000 to 170 000.

Any NATO produced map - showing tactical unit designations will proof that to you. The rest were support units and not combat units. And support units do not just consist of logistics and truck drivers.

And yes, simple logic tells that the Russians expected Ukraine to be an easy prey. Only that can explain why they decided to move from 4 main directions expanding from the Chernobyl zone on the north to Mykolaiv on the south.

The Southern offensive took place and was rather successful due to Russian intelligence having bribed countless numbers of UAF military and government employees.
The total combat force used by Russia coming in mostly from Crimea and Rostov encompassed less then 35,000 combat troops and around 40,000 separatists.

Also this simple logic tells that if a serious resistance was expected, then the main direction for the offensive should have been through and around the Donbas region to encircle and crush the main grouping of Ukrainian army, so called United forces were located there.

Wrong; since that front-line was the heaviest fortified and most populated by the UAF. - until today.

Basically they tried to do that in May, when the battle for Donbas was announced. But at that time the Ukrainian army was already able to regroup and draft the reservists.

Since Putin never utilizes more then 25% of his total forces - the Russians had to regroup - no one can defend a 1200km meander front-line with 250-300,000 men.
Therefore leaving the strategic worthless territories to the UAF, and instead securing the Rostov/Starobilsk Flank and Kherson/Orikhiv flank, whilst building up the central force to engage with the main bulk of the UAF.

Russia did not have the resources and manpower to go additionally against Kharkiv - therefore holding on to Izium, Shevchenkove and Burluk would have been plain stupid since they possessed no more strategic value in regards to Kharkiv. Instead the UAF now has to pour large units into a strategic worthless large territory (almost 7000km2) to prevent Russian insurgency and small scale counter attacks. Whilst Kharkiv is still just 25-30km opposite the Russian held border and homeland.

Lyman had lost it's strategic value after the Russians managed to take Lysychansk from the East and stabilized their front-line 10-15km West of Lysychansk in the past 6 month.

 

[Kruska]

I think that the Ukranians have fought bravely and with great success....this is the teacup poodle going up against the Rottweiler....and the poodle is doing very well.

Ukraine around 1 million men under arms spread throughout Ukraine and weapon/ammo supplies worth around US$60 Billion so far.
Russia at no given time more then 250-300,000 men in Ukraine and an annual defense budget of around US$60 Billion (2021)

You are indeed correct - the Russian poodle is doing remarkably well.

 

[Litwin]

That’s one of your buddies from the Azov. I think he’s the last known living member.

RT.LIE , WHATS ABOUT YOUR "HERO " UTKIN (WAGNER´S BOSS) ? IS HE WORK FOR Azov AS WELL ?

 

[Litwin]

Russia population 145.6 million people

NOT true, RosStat gives more realistic numbers : AROUND 132.000.000 in 2010, today around 125 M. 1 M. LEFT Moscow empire in order to escape MOBILIZATION JUST THIS YEAR.

The territory of Russia is 17.075.260 square meters. km and mainly lies north of 55 ° N.
Approximately 85% of the territory is not suitable for permanent comfortable living of the population. permafrost (areas of Siberia and the Far East) occupies 60% of the territory of Russia, swamps and wetlands almost 22%, rivers and lakes about 4%. Another part of the land is periodically flooded, part is occupied by mountains and forests, a little under ravines, part under deserts and solonchaks.

According to the State Statistics Committee's report for 2005, in Russia 2.2 million square meters of agricultural land are cultivated or used in agriculture. km, of which only 1.2 million for arable land, 0.2 million square kilometers are occupied by settlements of all types in the country. km, for industrial facilities and for military purposes 0.2 million, for other 0.1 million.
For a happy life, the Russians still have 2.561.289 square meters. km.
This is 15% of the territory ie. real Russia is slightly larger than Sudan, but less than Kazakhstan.
Average temperatures in January, in different regions, from 0 to -50 ° C, in July from 1 to 25 ° C, precipitation falls from 150 to 2000 mm per year.

Putin´s "Russia"(Muscovy ) in numbers , spoiler : "Nigeria with snow"

 

[gipper]

I see you are still in denial. Maybe this will help you see more clearly. Russia began this war with a huge disadvantage, it thought it had a much more powerful and capable military and intelligence service than it does; it is likely even Putin thought so. If the Russian leadership had understood before the war started that it would take so long and cost Russia so much, they never would have invaded because there in nothing to be gained in Ukraine that is worth the terrible price Russia is paying to pursue the war; so, with time and experience, the Russian leadership will come to realize how much less powerful the Russian military was at the start of the war than they had thought and how much less powerful they are now a year later, and arrive at the conclusion they never could have won this war.

Tell me how this guy is wrong? The Ukrainian army has been decimated, according to him. Yeah he admits Russia has incurred loses, but nowhere near what Ukraine has.

 

[Moonglow]

Why are the Ruskies waiting for their victory?

 

[toomuchtime_]

Well you are citing the entire Western Media propaganda show, incl. the China garbage - so if you have reasons to believe these accounts - it's up to you.

So what you are saying is, if it's not good news it must be fake news. Do you really believe that or do you imagine you are somehow protecting Russia by refusing to look at the facts?

What you call that China garbage is perfectly clear. China has demanded and gotten a 30% discount on oil sales and the price of Russian oil is already so low there is virtually no profit from these sales and to make matters worse, China has insisted on paying for Russia's with its domestic currency, the Renminbi, which can only be used for transactions inside of mainland China, instead of the yuan, which can be spent anywhere in the world, which means Russia must spend all of the money it earns from oil and gas sales to China inside of China. Before Russian oil and gas sales to Europe ended, China paid the full market price for Russian oil and gas and paid for them with the yuan, which can be spent anywhere. Clearly, smiling Xi is exploiting Russia's misery and Putin has no choice but to smile and say, thank you.

 

[ESay]

Wrong; since that front-line was the heaviest fortified and most populated by the UAF. - until today

The key word was encircle. It was exactly what they were trying to do since May.

Lyman had lost it's strategic value after the Russians managed to take Lysychansk from the East and stabilized their front-line 10-15km West of Lysychansk in the past 6 month

Lyman had more to do with Izum army grouping that tried to extend the curve through Barvinkove southward to encircle Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. If this move had been successful, alongside with 'southern' grouping moving northward through Ugledar, the Ukrainian army units in this agglomeration would have been encircled.

Overall, it is amusing to see how your ilk is making a poker face while talking about 'useless' territories. Yeah, Kharkiv oblast and the bridgehead around Kherson were absolutely useless. A feint, obviously.

 

[ESay]

Why are the Ruskies waiting for their victory?

It was a genius tactic of great chess grandmaster Putin. Not to encircle and crush the main Ukrainian forces in one place, but to extend this war as long as possible and get ruins instead of cities and towns. A decisive and quick victory is only for fools.

 

[gipper]

So what you are saying is, if it's not good news it must be fake news. Do you really believe that or do you imagine you are somehow protecting Russia by refusing to look at the facts?

What you call that China garbage is perfectly clear. China has demanded and gotten a 30% discount on oil sales and the price of Russian oil is already so low there is virtually no profit from these sales and to make matters worse, China has insisted on paying for Russia's with its domestic currency, the Renminbi, which can only be used for transactions inside of mainland China, instead of the yuan, which can be spent anywhere in the world, which means Russia must spend all of the money it earns from oil and gas sales to China inside of China. Before Russian oil and gas sales to Europe ended, China paid the full market price for Russian oil and gas and paid for them with the yuan, which can be spent anywhere. Clearly, smiling Xi is exploiting Russia's misery and Putin has no choice but to smile and say, thank you.

No. China wants this easily avoided war to end. They want to open up railways through Asia and Europe to sell their products. The so called Belt and Road Initiative.

China is not a warlike nation, as the US is.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Tell me how this guy is wrong? The Ukrainian army has been decimated, according to him. Yeah he admits Russia has incurred loses, but nowhere near what Ukraine has.

His "facts" are wrong. Ukraine has outnumbered he Russian force inside Ukraine from day one of this war. When the invasion began, Ukraine quickly mobilized all its security forces, which numbered 265,000, to Russia's initial 120,000, and the Ukrainian forces quickly grew to 700,000, greatly outnumbering the Russian forces inside of Ukraine, but Russia out gunned Ukrainian forces, so Russia made some progress for a short time. Ukraine has 12,000,000 people of military age in a highly motivated population, and the numbers of its military forces have remained strong.

Setting aside the Russian bombardment of civilian targets which has no military value, Russian forces have been unable to make any progress at all in Ukraine, and in most instances, it is Russian soldiers trying to storm, fortified Ukrainian positions so common sense and the world's experience in trench warfare tells us that the attacking Russians are suffering much higher casualties than the defending Ukrainians.

 

[gipper]

His "facts" are wrong. Ukraine has outnumbered he Russian force inside Ukraine from day one of this war. When the invasion began, Ukraine quickly mobilized all its security forces, which numbered 265,000, to Russia's initial 120,000, and the Ukrainian forces quickly grew to 700,000, greatly outnumbering the Russian forces inside of Ukraine, but Russia out gunned Ukrainian forces, so Russia made some progress for a short time. Ukraine has 12,000,000 people of military age in a highly motivated population, and the numbers of its military forces have remained strong.

Setting aside the Russian bombardment of civilian targets which has no military value, Russian forces have been unable to make any progress at all in Ukraine, and in most instances, it is Russian soldiers trying to storm, fortified Ukrainian positions so common sense and the world's experience in trench warfare tells us that the attacking Russians are suffering much higher casualties than the defending Ukrainians.

Russia hasn’t been bombarding civilian targets. You claiming this obvious lie makes everything else you’ve claimed suspect.

 

[JWBooth]

Russia hasn’t been bombarding civilian targets. You claiming this obvious lie makes everything else you’ve claimed suspect.

Suspect? More like NATO press statements.