Climate forecasts may be flawed, says study

[Wyatt earp]

Lmao.....

Climate forecasts may be flawed, says study


Perdictions of unprecedented rainfall extremes in the 20th century driven by global warming turned out wrong, a study said Wednesday, casting doubt on methods used to project future trends.

A massive trawl of Northern Hemisphere rainfall data for the last 1,200 years revealed there had been more dramatic wet-dry weather extremes in earlier, cooler centuries before humans set off fossil fuel-driven global warming.

This is problematic, said a study in the journal Nature, as the same data models used to anticipate that global warming would cause record rainfall extremes in the 1900s, are the basis for projections of things to come.

"It might be more difficult than often assumed to project into the future," the study's lead author Fredrik Ljungqvist of Stockholm University told AFP of the findings.

"The truth can be much, much more complicated."

The UN's climate science panel, the consensus authority, contends that dry areas will become ever drier and wet ones wetter as the global temperature rises in response to greenhouse gas emissions.

But the new work said sky-high temperatures in the 20th century did not directly translate into record extremes between wet and dry weather, as many had expected

 

[SSDD]

May be flawed? They are spectacular failures....and how much grant money did it take to complete this study that the models MAY be flawed? If it was more than 2 bits, it was to much.

 

[Wyatt earp]

But wait the science is settled we know everything, hang the sceptics.

 

[cnm]

Oh. So because it hasn't happened it won't happen. That's reassuring.

 

[Wyatt earp]

Everyone is reporting it..

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/04/160406165534.htm



1200 years of water balance data challenge climate models
Date:
April 6, 2016
Source:
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
Summary:
Water availability in the Northern Hemisphere has seen much larger changes during the past twelve centuries than during twentieth century global warming, a new study reports. The team concludes that climate models overestimate wet and dry extremes as temperatures increased during the twentieth century. The new results can help to improve the ability of climate models to predict future hydroclimate changes.


The researchers from Sweden, Germany, and Switzerland have for the first time reconstructed the variations in water availability across the Northern Hemisphere seamless for the past twelve centuries. This allows for comparisons between various parts of Europe, Asia, and North America.

The study shows that hydroclimate extremes have been stronger and covered larger areas in some earlier centuries than during the twentieth century, explains lead author Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist from Stockholm University.

Water availability through the centuries

The researchers reconstructed changes in water availability -- the hydroclimate -- by statistically analysing evidence for changes in precipitation and drought, such as varying lake levels, soil humidity or river runoff. To do this the researchers compiled hundreds of records from various climate archives across the Northern Hemisphere: tree-rings, speleothems, lake sediments, and written historical records.

 

[cnm]

So because the extremes of twelve centuries are greater than the extremes of one century it won't happen. That's reassuring.

 

[Wyatt earp]

So because the extremes of twelve centuries are greater than the extremes of one century it won't happen. That's reassuring.

Hey rertardo can you comprehend what both are saying? All this fear mongering about extreme weather due to man is BULLSHIT,




.

.

 

[cnm]

And global temperature is not climbing and has not hit record heights. Right.

sauce

sauce

 

[Wyatt earp]

And global temperature is not climbing and has not hit record heights. Right.

So the opposite is true, more record highs = more stable weather. Keep burning those fossil fuels.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

And global temperature is not climbing and has not hit record heights. Right.

sauce

sauce

The bottom chart shows no warming for 2 decades

 

[cnm]

Hey rertardo can you comprehend what both are saying? All this fear mongering about extreme weather due to man is BULLSHIT,

If you think fear mongering is scientists saying it is likely weather extremes will increase, you must be pretty easy to scare.

 

[cnm]

The bottom chart shows no warming for 2 decades

The bottom chart shows it is incontrovertible that the history of global warming has been a sequence of cooling periods.

 

[cnm]

So the opposite is true, more record highs = more stable weather. Keep burning those fossil fuels.

Ah. So you agree human activity emitted greenhouse gases are the primary driver of climate change? Well done, you've joined the consensus.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Hey rertardo can you comprehend what both are saying? All this fear mongering about extreme weather due to man is BULLSHIT,

If you think fear mongering is scientists saying it is likely weather extremes will increase, you must be pretty easy to scare.

and yet the facts say your a liar..

ADO at an all time low

Dam, were at an all time low... GLOBALLY!

 

[Billy_Bob]

So the opposite is true, more record highs = more stable weather. Keep burning those fossil fuels.

Ah. So you agree human activity emitted greenhouse gases are the primary driver of climate change? Well done, you've joined the consensus.

Nope! Water Vapor mutes the CO2 signal to near zero. Its not driving anything.

 

[Old Rocks]

Climate forecasts may be flawed, says study

This divergence "certainly adds fuel to the fiery debate" on the link between warming and rainfall extremes, Matthew Kirby of California State University's Department of Geological Sciences wrote in a comment published by Nature.

"Do their results invalidate current predictive models? Certainly not. But they do highlight a big challenge for climate modellers, and present major research opportunities both for modellers and climate scientists..."

James Renwick of the Victoria University of Wellington said the predicted wet and dry extremes are "very likely" to materialise in the 21st, century.

Extreme drought and downpours are among many risks that scientists warn about in a warmer world. Others include land-gobbling sea level rise, crop and water shortages, disease spread and wars over dwindling resources.

In December, the nations of the world signed a pact to limit average global warming to no more than two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels, when the fossil fuel burning began.

Research suggests we may already have reached 1 C.

Not having a link to the original paper, I am not sure what it says. However, it does not seem to say that the forecasts are wrong, only that they are based on models that are most likely too simple. That is not telling the researchers anything they don't already know.

And, one other thing implied, is that the changes may by worse, in that instead of areas already wet getting wetter, we may see areas that are dry experiancing very wet conditions, and vice versa.

 

[mamooth]

ADO at an all time low

Pretending the Atlantic is the whole world? That's pathetic.

Why'd you do that, Billy? Oh, that's right. It's because the Pacific was crazy high, so you had to pretend it didn't exist.

That is, you deliberately lied by omission. And you have no regrets over doing so, because in your cult, lying big earns you cult brownie points.

Oh, needless to say, WUWT just headlined this study in the OP, with their own propaganda spin on it. That's why multiple deniers are making threads on it. They're an obedient bunch of sheep, those deniers, all bleating in unison when they get the command.

 

[Wyatt earp]

ADO at an all time low

Pretending the Atlantic is the whole world? That's pathetic.

Why'd you do that, Billy? Oh, that's right. It's because the Pacific was crazy high, so you had to pretend it didn't exist.

That is, you deliberately lied by omission. And you have no regrets over doing so, because in your cult, lying big earns you cult brownie points.

Oh, needless to say, WUWT just headlined this study in the OP, with their own propaganda spin on it. That's why multiple deniers are making threads on it. They're an obedient bunch of sheep, those deniers, all bleating in unison when they get the command.

What command fruit loop?

You ever read MSN and yahoo news

 

[Billy_Bob]

ADO at an all time low

Pretending the Atlantic is the whole world? That's pathetic.

Why'd you do that, Billy? Oh, that's right. It's because the Pacific was crazy high, so you had to pretend it didn't exist.

That is, you deliberately lied by omission. And you have no regrets over doing so, because in your cult, lying big earns you cult brownie points.

Oh, needless to say, WUWT just headlined this study in the OP, with their own propaganda spin on it. That's why multiple deniers are making threads on it. They're an obedient bunch of sheep, those deniers, all bleating in unison when they get the command.

The ADO drives the heat content of the surface, which drives cyclone formation... Another Idiot who doesn't know how the basics of how the climate hydro-logical systems work..

How's it feel to be shown the Lying little bitch that you are?

 

[Crick]

I can't think it could possibly be as demeaning as the demonstrations of your personal qualities to which you treat us daily.

There's a very high correlation between what you and other deniers post and the latest from Mr Watts. Time after time after time, I see something new from you and yours and at the top of a Google search, what do I find but WUWT. Your opponents, on the other hand, tend to most often source their material from scientific journals.

If the science is on your side, Billy, why would that be the case? Are you going to tell us about the conspiracy again Billy? Are you going to try to justify the paranoia your position forces you to adopt?