Current 2016 Presidential Polling in Florida

[Statistikhengst]

The China crash is catching up with us according to new home sales. The McKinsey prediction that US productivity will price China out of many markets seems to be understated. But so far with the exception of NYS the Blues are getting stuck with the bills and the Reds with the revenues of these changes. Even with the unprepossessing GOP candidates the Fed taper looks like it will save them.

 

[Statistikhengst]

so One state make's it a shoo in?

when are elections, a year and half away

good grief

I do find it funny you all passed over Hillary and made her a LOSER to put in the MAN community agitator nobody ever heard of, now you want Hillary...
so much for loyalty eh?

Gee, Stephanie, how little you know of your own party's electoral history. I cannot blame you for your ignorance of easy-to-learn facts, but I CAN laugh about it.

In 1976, your great icon Ronald Reagan LOST the nomination battle against Gerald Ford. What a shame that Reagan didn't go on to win the presidency at a later time.

Oh, wait. He did.

Learn from this moment, Stephanie, learn from it.

And btw, ever heard of the phrase "a rising tide lifts all boats"?

And I notice that, once again, as for the actual data in the OP, you have nothing to say at all.... over your head, what?? There, there...

Hillary is up on the GOP crowd by double digits in Ohio, Virginia and Florida - the three most critical battleground states of all. IF these numbers hold, then that means that these states would not even really be battlegrounds in 2016.

So, yes, from one state, especially a critical state like Florida, we can surmize a great deal about 2016.

And of course, there's the fact that she is only slightly behind in LA and MS and somewhat ahead in AR, thus putting three more rock solid southern states into play.

FACIT: when Hillary gets nominated, the GOP electoral column will collapse in many places.

 

[Derideo_Te]

so One state make's it a shoo in?

when are elections, a year and half away

good grief

I do find it funny you all passed over Hillary and made her a LOSER to put in the MAN community agitator nobody ever heard of, now you want Hillary...
so much for loyalty eh?

Gee, Stephanie, how little you know of your own party's electoral history. I cannot blame you for your ignorance of easy-to-learn facts, but I CAN laugh about it.

In 1976, your great icon Ronald Reagan LOST the nomination battle against Gerald Ford. What a shame that Reagan didn't go on to win the presidency at a later time.

Oh, wait. He did.

Learn from this moment, Stephanie, learn from it.

And btw, ever heard of the phrase "a rising tide lifts all boats"?

And I notice that, once again, as for the actual data in the OP, you have nothing to say at all.... over your head, what?? There, there...

Hillary is up on the GOP crowd by double digits in Ohio, Virginia and Florida - the three most critical battleground states of all. IF these numbers hold, then that means that these states would not even really be battlegrounds in 2016.

So, yes, from one state, especially a critical state like Florida, we can surmize a great deal about 2016.

And of course, there's the fact that she is only slightly behind in LA and MS and somewhat ahead in AR, thus putting three more rock solid southern states into play.

FACIT: when Hillary gets nominated, the GOP electoral column will collapse in many places.

I am more cautious because a lot can happen between now and 2016 and politics are capricious at best.

That said these statistics are painting a picture that shows a turning tide in my opinion. Perhaps most telling were the numbers coming out of Mississippi. That is not a swing state but it shows the same trend as we are seeing in the swing states.

Put those all in aggregate together with the demographic shift and the GOP does need to come up with a plan B for 2016 in my opinion.

Of all the GOP candidates only Rand Paul sounds credible enough to win the general but that same moderate credibility will be a liability for him in the primaries where Ted Cruz will be tearing him a new hanging chad or two in the debates for those moderate positions.

2016 will not be like the elections of yore. There will be a fight on the right for the heart and soul of the party in the primaries followed by what I believe will be the roughest election in living memory if the TP candidate gets the nomination.

 

[Toro]

Jeb Bush comes the closest, at -6 or -7.

But Rubio is way underwater.

And Christie has sunk to a point where I can imagine his advisors mulling whether he should run at all.

The names missing from these polls that I personally would have like to have seen in the mix as well:

Mike Huckabee
Rick Perry
Ben Carson
Rick Santorum


But polling is expensive and most polls poll a maximum of 6 candidate matchups.

To win the nomination, you need money and infrastructure. Everything else is just smoke.

These are the four Republicans who are currently raising money and building an infrastructure;

Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Rand Paul
Scott Walker

The nominee will be one of those four until someone else also gets serious about running a campaign.

True, but it's entirely possible for another candidate or two to start building infrastructure as well, like Ted Cruz and most definitely Mike Huckabee.

Interestingly enough, there has been very little polling Clinton vs. Walker, but in every matchup that has happened, for instance, in Wisconsin, a couple of times nationally, also a number of times in Iowa, she has beat him handily.

That's true, but they have to start soon if they want to be serious contenders. Most of the names listed above in this thread aren't serious contenders.

It's too early to read too much into polls. Hillary was leading Obama by 20-30 points at this time 8 years ago.

 

[Statistikhengst]

To win the nomination, you need money and infrastructure. Everything else is just smoke.

These are the four Republicans who are currently raising money and building an infrastructure;

Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Rand Paul
Scott Walker

The nominee will be one of those four until someone else also gets serious about running a campaign.

True, but it's entirely possible for another candidate or two to start building infrastructure as well, like Ted Cruz and most definitely Mike Huckabee.

Interestingly enough, there has been very little polling Clinton vs. Walker, but in every matchup that has happened, for instance, in Wisconsin, a couple of times nationally, also a number of times in Iowa, she has beat him handily.

That's true, but they have to start soon if they want to be serious contenders. Most of the names listed above in this thread aren't serious contenders.

It's too early to read too much into polls. Hillary was leading Obama by 20-30 points at this time 8 years ago.

Notice my very last paragraph and notice the word "if". That clears is up right there.

It's too early to prognosticate, but it's never too early to build a baseline.

to baselines!

 

[Statistikhengst]

so One state make's it a shoo in?

when are elections, a year and half away

good grief

I do find it funny you all passed over Hillary and made her a LOSER to put in the MAN community agitator nobody ever heard of, now you want Hillary...
so much for loyalty eh?

Gee, Stephanie, how little you know of your own party's electoral history. I cannot blame you for your ignorance of easy-to-learn facts, but I CAN laugh about it.

In 1976, your great icon Ronald Reagan LOST the nomination battle against Gerald Ford. What a shame that Reagan didn't go on to win the presidency at a later time.

Oh, wait. He did.

Learn from this moment, Stephanie, learn from it.

And btw, ever heard of the phrase "a rising tide lifts all boats"?

And I notice that, once again, as for the actual data in the OP, you have nothing to say at all.... over your head, what?? There, there...

Hillary is up on the GOP crowd by double digits in Ohio, Virginia and Florida - the three most critical battleground states of all. IF these numbers hold, then that means that these states would not even really be battlegrounds in 2016.

So, yes, from one state, especially a critical state like Florida, we can surmize a great deal about 2016.

And of course, there's the fact that she is only slightly behind in LA and MS and somewhat ahead in AR, thus putting three more rock solid southern states into play.

FACIT: when Hillary gets nominated, the GOP electoral column will collapse in many places.

I am more cautious because a lot can happen between now and 2016 and politics are capricious at best.

That said these statistics are painting a picture that shows a turning tide in my opinion. Perhaps most telling were the numbers coming out of Mississippi. That is not a swing state but it shows the same trend as we are seeing in the swing states.

Put those all in aggregate together with the demographic shift and the GOP does need to come up with a plan B for 2016 in my opinion.

Of all the GOP candidates only Rand Paul sounds credible enough to win the general but that same moderate credibility will be a liability for him in the primaries where Ted Cruz will be tearing him a new hanging chad or two in the debates for those moderate positions.

2016 will not be like the elections of yore. There will be a fight on the right for the heart and soul of the party in the primaries followed by what I believe will be the roughest election in living memory if the TP candidate gets the nomination.

Quite possibly.

 

[Interpol]

I think Hillary Clinton probably has a better shot than any other candidate running for either party at winning Florida. I think there's a lot of affection for the Clinton days among a lot of those older, moderate white voters.

A good deal of people who lost their jobs the last few years were working class Republicans and Democrats who were middle aged and who tend to be moderate, swing voters. The Clinton brand brought them prosperity in the 90's when they were working and doing well and starting to save for the first time.

Hillary just benefits from a brand that mainstream America associates with prosperity and easier times. The 90's were great for a lot of us. There were international conflicts as there always are, but but nothing like the paranoia and tense times ever since 9/11.

Ohio is really the state that I think is going to be the close one. Republicans will try to make her out to be the Romney candidate in '16, which is to say, they'll run on the idea that she's rich and famous now and out of touch with regular people. Just look at bananas they all went when she made that offhand remark about being practically dirt broke after leaving the White House.

If she wins the presidency, it will be because she uses that Republican talking point to her advantage. Romney was the rich guy with an economic plan that said government should be more encouraging to other rich people instead of people at the bottom. Hillary gets to play the rich person who is actually asking us to raise her taxes very modestly in order to nip the rest of our deficit in the butt.

 

[birddog]

If Hillary had 4-5 other viable candidates competing for the D nomination, the aforementioned polls would mean more. However, as it is, she gets most of the recognition and appears fiercer than she is.

When the Rs elect a strong candidate, the polls, one on one, likely will even out or swing the other way.

 

[JoeB131]

If Hillary had 4-5 other viable candidates competing for the D nomination, the aforementioned polls would mean more. However, as it is, she gets most of the recognition and appears fiercer than she is.

When the Rs elect a strong candidate, the polls, one on one, likely will even out or swing the other way.

1) The Rs don't have a strong candidate.

2) Even if they did, they can't overcome the demographics that got Obama elected twice.

I have no love for Romney or McCain, but i don't see anyone on the GOP wish list who is stronger.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Hillary "Not Getting the Nomination" Clinton ahead by <>%!!!!

 

[Nyvin]

Hillary "Not Getting the Nomination" Clinton ahead by <>%!!!!

What makes you always suggests this?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Hillary "Not Getting the Nomination" Clinton ahead by <>%!!!!

What makes you always suggests this?

What on Earth makes you think she's getting the nomination?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Better chance for a Led Zeppelin reunion than for Hillary getting the nomination

 

[Statistikhengst]

Better chance for a Led Zeppelin reunion than for Hillary getting the nomination

 

[Zander]

I don't think these polls have any value for anyone except stat geeks......

Lets look at these same polls in 24 months.

 

[Votto]

What does it matter?

 

[Vigilante]

Running SCARED???? ROTFLMFAO

Hillary Team Calls for Media Blackout of Anti-Clinton Books

Breitbart ^


Soon there will be three anti-Clinton books on the market, which is apparently enough to have gotten under the skin of Team Hillary. The First Family Detail by Ronald Kessler, set for release next month, will join Clinton, Inc. by the Weekly Standard&#8217;s Daniel Halper and Blood Feud by Ed Klein on bookshelves. Yesterday we reported that Clinton, Inc. has shot up the charts and now both Halper and Klein&#8217;s books are outselling Hillary Clinton&#8217;s recent memoir Hard Choices. &#8220;With Klein, Halper and Kessler, we now have a Hat Trick of despicable actors concocting trashy nonsense,&#8221; Clinton spokesman Nick Merrill...

 

[Votto]

I don't think these polls have any value for anyone except stat geeks......

Lets look at these same polls in 24 months.

Instead of looking at polls of future elections to try and determine where the American people are, how about looking at the last two decades of elections that saw both "W" and Obama win two terms.

Americans are brain dead half wits.

 

[Vigilante]

Hey Rep Frog Boy....send her some WHITENING STRIPS for those horrible colored teeth....You'd think with her money, she could buy a COMPLETE MAKEOVER, and not look like a prune!

 

[Statistikhengst]

I don't think these polls have any value for anyone except stat geeks......

Lets look at these same polls in 24 months.

Actually, you just supported my argument, for I have been saying all along, on every single one of these threads, that by doing this, I am building a data baseline.

So, yes, let's look at these polls in 24 months. You are exactly right.

I will remind: 16 months ago, the same kind of numbers were coming out of Florida.
12 months ago, the same kind of numbers were coming out of Florida.
6 months ago, the same kind of numbers were coming out of Florida.

See a pattern here?

This is why data-people establish baselines to begin with.

So, thanks for your help!