DrLove
Diamond Member
1.3 to 1.4 percent is not ‘piling up’ and ‘what if’ is not scientific.Did you read Lucy's posts in this thread? I have read SO much today and in the past few days that I can't remember where I read it, but if our new cases keep piling up the way they have been going, we will soon surpass China and yes, Italy. That's what they're saying. It might not be mortality rates--they never mention in what way we're going to surpass China. Just that we will.I do listen to the experts, but clearly you don't since none of them have predicted the US experience will be the worst in the world as you insist.Dr. Love has clearly said the US experience will be as bad as Italy's, which is the worst in the world, without any basis in fact for that believe or hope, so I don't know why you would doubt he is wishing the worst for America for political reasons.Of course I don't wish us to surpass Italy in this pandemic. I doubt if Dr. Love does either, but you'll think what you want.I don't know which experts you are talking about, but what I have heard is that the crisis will get worse before it gets better but not that it will be the worst in the world, which is what Dr. Love is predicting. There is no rational basis for saying it will be like Italy's rather than like Germany's, which is much better, unless you are expressing a wish for the crisis to be that bad because you believe it will be bad for Trump, as Dr. Love clearly does.Dr. Love didn't make it up. It's what some experts are saying. I know we can't predict the future, but they've been pretty onpoint so far.All true and that's why President Trump's early decision to ban travel from places with high infection rates was so important in saving us from the horror show the EU is now experiencing. The EU still has not banned travel from places with high infection rates, and although some member states have, since they have open borders with other member states, infected people can land elsewhere in the EU and travel to Rome an kill Italians.In 2005, the latest statistic I could find, we have over 1 BILLION Tourists a year in the USAThis is just you hoping for the worst for America. We are not a month behind Italy. Italy is still behind us. Because the EU never closed its borders between member states, and because Italy is a prime tourist location, its population infected people continued to enter Italy even as the crisis grew to an unsupportable size. To make matters worse, Italy has a much older population than the US, so it mortality rate is naturally much higher.Things are moving so fast, it's now up to 1.37% of confirmed cases, but to put things in perspective, it is among the lowest rates among developed countries of any size.Total deaths/Total cases = 1.35% mortality rate in the US.
This is from the CDC site TODAY:
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.www.cdc.gov
Coronavirus Updates (COVID-19) Deaths & Cases per 1M Population | RealClearPolitics
Coronavirus Updates (COVID-19) Deaths & Cases per Population | RealClearPoliticswww.realclearpolitics.com
Hopefully you realize how many people are in ICU's who will ultimately die and that we're a month behind Italy.
No, you don't ... Never mind
If you look at the statistics for EU countries, those with a high rate of tourism have a high rate of infection and those with a lower rate of tourism have a lower rate of infection. President Trump's early action to cut off travel from countries with high infection rates is the reason we have a so much lower mortality rate than most other developed countries of any size.
So our tourism from other nations is HUGE
Tourism in the United States - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
In the U.S., tourism is among the three largest employers in 29 states, employing 7.3 million in 2004, to take care of 1.19 billion trips tourists took in the U.S. in 2005.[citation needed] As of 2007, there are 2,462 registered National Historic Landmarks (NHL) recognized by the United States government. As of 2018, New York City is the most visited destination in the United States, followed by Los Angeles, Orlando, Las Vegas, and Chicago.
Tourists spend more money in the United States than any other country, while attracting the second-highest number of tourists after France and Spain.[2][3] The discrepancy may be explained by longer stays in the US.[3]
Whether you are making this shit up yourself or listening to other people who are making it up, there is no basis in fact for believing the US will experience what italy is experiencing. No other nation on Earth is experiencing what Italy is experiencing, so why would you think the US will experience what is happening in Italy instead of what is happening in Germany, which is doing much better than Italy, unless you are expressing you hope for the US to go through all the same suffering and death Italy is going through because you think it will be bad for President Trump. You may technically be an American, but you are clearly no one's fellow American.You hope we will become Italy, but there is no basis in fact to support your hope for this.The Intercept?Italy diagnosed their first case they same day we did.Things are moving so fast, it's now up to 1.37% of confirmed cases, but to put things in perspective, it is among the lowest rates among developed countries of any size.Total deaths/Total cases = 1.35% mortality rate in the US.
This is from the CDC site TODAY:
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.
View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.www.cdc.gov
Coronavirus Updates (COVID-19) Deaths & Cases per 1M Population | RealClearPolitics
Coronavirus Updates (COVID-19) Deaths & Cases per Population | RealClearPoliticswww.realclearpolitics.com
Hopefully you realize how many people are in ICU's who will ultimately die and that we're a month behind Italy.
No, you don't ... Never mind
Okay, you go with that.
Italy's Coronavirus Nightmare Could Happen in U.S. Within Days or Weeks, Ex-CDC Chief Says
Whether the U.S. health care system buckles like Italy’s “really depends on how vigorously and promptly we do social distancing,” said a former CDC chief.theintercept.com
And their first local case on 2-22Italy confirms first 2 cases of coronavirus: prime minister - National | Globalnews.ca
Two Chinese tourists who were visiting Italy had contracted the virus, said Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. Checks were being made to reconstruct the path of the two people to avoid further risks.globalnews.ca
Italian man dies from coronavirus as number of confirmed cases jump in Italy
An elderly Italian man dies after being infected with coronavirus, becoming the first Italian victim of the disease.www.abc.net.au
We're going to become Italy. I'd say in 2-3 more weeks. They ARE way ahead of us. So is the rest of Europe.
Coronavirus live updates: 627 die in a single day in Italy
Largest daily jump in Italy’s death toll, as WHO warns the world’s youth they are not invincible against COVID-19.www.aljazeera.com
Yes there is actually - I don't make this shit up, I listen to the doctors and scientists. We are on precisely the same trajectory.
And NO - suggesting that a fellow American hopes we become Italy is unAmerican and goofy.
I am always HOPING for the best. I just don't ignore the people who know a lot more about it than I do.From what I've read, we don't really know why flu viruses seem to disappear in warm weather, so we don't know if this virus will react the same way, so there is some reason to hope for the best. In fact, we don't know at this point if we are approaching the peak of the curve or not.Don't put TOO much reliance on the temperature for solving this problem. The article I linked didn't go into any actual #'s so I don't know just how much of a slow down it will provide. The fact that the warmer states (except Louisiana) seem to be experiencing less new cases than colder states, it's not that summer is going to lick this thing. Even my article said that warmer weather might help slow transmission ALONG WITH STRICT MEASURES to stop the spread. And how many buildings and homes in the deep south don't have air conditioning running all summer? Cool and dry air is what coronavirus likes.
I also listen closely to the experts, and nothing they have said suggests the US experience will be anything like Italy's.
You aren't "watching experts" - Sounds more like Fox-n-Friends.
Thank GOD we have scientists and doctors on USMB such as Leo to manform us as to what's going on with COVID-19!!