Do you think Democrats will take the House in 2018?

[william the wie]

To partially repeat myself from another thread there are several problems with the current Dem strategy:
1) The Ds will most likely lose net senate seats in 2018 and the senate controls appointments to the bench.
2) The Mueller investigation is seen as a witch hunt so that ensures that R turnout will be massive.
3) The deduction caps will hit in Feb on the withholding tables and the blue states will be wroth.
4) Active recruiting in Blue states for red state jobs will kick in in the Spring.
5) wage push inflation will be 4-5% by the election and GDP growth will be in the same so interest rates will go way up to increase returns for retirees plus COLA. Munis will also go up in interest rates forcing tax increases and service cuts in blue land.
6) most infrastructure is underground and the equipment to do underground construction safely is made in OK for the most part.
7 Manufacturers prefer to build plants in right to work states, which are almost all red states.

With the blue wall deteriorating rapidly during a boom is great for R campaign ads.

 

[Disir]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

I don't think it is likely.

The Democrats need a game plan. I hate Trump is not going to get it.

 

[Imissbush]

To partially repeat myself from another thread there are several problems with the current Dem strategy:
1) The Ds will most likely lose net senate seats in 2018 and the senate controls appointments to the bench.
2) The Mueller investigation is seen as a witch hunt so that ensures that R turnout will be massive.
3) The deduction caps will hit in Feb on the withholding tables and the blue states will be wroth.
4) Active recruiting in Blue states for red state jobs will kick in in the Spring.
5) wage push inflation will be 4-5% by the election and GDP growth will be in the same so interest rates will go way up to increase returns for retirees plus COLA. Munis will also go up in interest rates forcing tax increases and service cuts in blue land.
6) most infrastructure is underground and the equipment to do underground construction safely is made in OK for the most part.
7 Manufacturers prefer to build plants in right to work states, which are almost all red states.

With the blue wall deteriorating rapidly during a boom is great for R campaign ads.

Lol, wow! That's some hopefully crap there

 

[NYcarbineer]

Trump is now saying that the GOP will pull a Bush 2002 election win in 2018. Comically delusional.

 

[MrShangles]

Depends whether Mueller moves on the Orange Clown before then...

What’s he moving on. Gotta find something first. Parking ticket, unreturned library book or something.


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[skye]

Hopefully Demrats won't take the House in 2018.

Hope and pray.

 

[MrShangles]

The Democrats are likely to take the House. The problem will be suburban districts. Republicans were routed in the Virginia house of Delegates. Even in Alabama, Republicans only won the suburbs by 4 points. The Democrats have done a good job of recruiting decent candidates to run. They don't have to stand for anything. Republicans didn't run on anything but opposition to Obama. That didn't hurt them in taking the House. Republicans have constantly appealed to the 30% and sometimes even less support for what Republicans have done or tried to do.

1. Republicans tried to kick poor people off of health insurance and force premiums much higher for older Americans and people with pre-existing conditions.
2. The tax bill left intact numerous loopholes for the rich including 1 that enriches Paul Ryan, Bob Corker, and Donald Trump.
3. Republicans have lurched too far to the right in repealing regulations. Something like net neutrality will be easy to explain. Treat all data equally.
.

Republicans have something to run on --> The continuation of Trumps agenda.

Then they are doomed. Americans disapprove of Trump's job performance on nearly every issue.

You really should cut back on watching CNN, you’re starting to believe what they spoon feed you.


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[BluesLegend]

First I'll laugh at the hapless Dems then remind everyone Trump is in the White House, get ready for an October surprise in 2018

 

[william the wie]

It won't do the Ds any good to take the house if they can't take the senate.

 

[oreo]

The Democrats cannot win on Trump's alleged unpopularity. They must win on their own popularity, and outside of a couple of select clubs, they have none.

Should the econ perform as widely predicted, they will sink entirely.

Oh yeah they can, and Democrats will win. 31 House Republicans have already announced they will not be seeking reelection in 2018--seeing this Tsunami headed their way. The DNC has announced they will be putting up Democrat candidates for every congressional seat in Texas. Ted Cruz is up for reelection this year. Texas makes sense because they have a 40% legal American voting Hispanic population there.
There's A Democrat Running For Every Texas Congressional Seat Next Year
In Reaction To Trump, Democratic Candidates Surge In Deep-Red Texas
A Record Number of House Republicans Will Not Seek Re-Election in 2018

In California--Republicans like congressman Devin Nunes are going to get wiped out, and I think there are 15 Republican house members in that state alone.

In this nations history, there has never been a President elect that had to barricade himself inside the Trump tower and his method of communication was reduced to a Twitter account.

Since he's been in office, he has continually thrown gasoline on this fire.

Woman's march Washington D.C.--the day after Trump's inaguration. This was going on in every state, they were in the millions. For more pictures go to this link and scroll through the many pages.
Woman's march pictures

Trump street protest pictures.

more pictures at this link
trump street protests - Yahoo Image Search Results

It's clear that electing Trump has awoken a sleeping giant in this country, and it's pissed. More signs of this incoming missle on Republicans were the special elections in Virginia, where Democrats took over the state house--(first time in 25 years.) Governors changed hands in New Jersey & Virginia--more state house loss's, including local races went to Democrats. Doug Jones winning in Alabama--gave Democrats encouragement in running candidates in more red states.

So the blowback on Republicans this midterm is going to be a blood bath for them. Trump getting booed last week in Atlanta Georia when his motorcade showed up at the college National football game.
Trump booed as he arrives for college football national championship game in Atlanta

And Michael Woflf's "Fire & Fury" is still the number 1 best seller in this country. All tell tale signs of what is coming. In 2018 the Senate and the house go to Democrats.

 

[basquebromance]

Dear Millenials.
You catch a lot of grief.
There are special elections tomorrow: WI, PA, SC.
The midterms are in 295 days.
Here's what 2016 looks like if it was JUST MILLENNIALS.
This map shows your power.
And I have faith.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Dear Millenials.
You catch a lot of grief.
There are special elections tomorrow: WI, PA, SC.
The midterms are in 295 days.
Here's what 2016 looks like if it was JUST MILLENNIALS.
This map shows your power.
And I have faith.

Here's what 2016 looks like if it was JUST MILLENNIALS.

Now we know how young, stupid people vote.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

The Democrats will sweep both chambers. In fact, the upset will be nothing short of stunning.
And, if we do not, then we deserve everything that comes after.
Putting Donald Trump and the Republicans on a short leash and a muzzle is the only way we can extricate ourselves from Trump's continued destruction of the fabric of democracy and the impending authoritarian theocratic fascist state.

 

[busybee01]

The Democrats are likely to take the House. The problem will be suburban districts. Republicans were routed in the Virginia house of Delegates. Even in Alabama, Republicans only won the suburbs by 4 points. The Democrats have done a good job of recruiting decent candidates to run. They don't have to stand for anything. Republicans didn't run on anything but opposition to Obama. That didn't hurt them in taking the House. Republicans have constantly appealed to the 30% and sometimes even less support for what Republicans have done or tried to do.

1. Republicans tried to kick poor people off of health insurance and force premiums much higher for older Americans and people with pre-existing conditions.
2. The tax bill left intact numerous loopholes for the rich including 1 that enriches Paul Ryan, Bob Corker, and Donald Trump.
3. Republicans have lurched too far to the right in repealing regulations. Something like net neutrality will be easy to explain. Treat all data equally.
.

The tax bill left intact numerous loopholes for the rich including 1 that enriches Paul Ryan, Bob Corker, and Donald Trump.

Between all the middle class tax cuts, the loopholes for the rich and the business tax cuts, the Republicans
covered all the bases.

While Americans support middle class tax cuts, they opposed the tax cuts for the rich and businesses.

Only Democrats want class warfare...so rephrase that statement.

I actually am not rephrasing it. Americans believe in fairness. There was nothing fair about this. Capping SALT taxes was revenge on blue states and nothing else. Also 1 loophole that even Trump said was a sop to Wall Street was retained, the carried interest deduction. 2 new loopholes were created for the rich. A pass-through rate was created and passive investors will be able to lower their taxes on all income from that investment. You can bet the rich will be hiring tax lawyers to figure out how to use that to lower their taxes in ways the GOP never intended. In addition, a new loophole was added at the last minute for real estate trusts. This benefitted Paul Ryan who helped write the bill, Trump who signed it, and Bob Corker who changed his no to a yes.

From a Fox poll from last year:

Thinking about federal income taxes, how frustrated are you about the wealthy paying too little in taxes?
Very: Republicans 28% Independents: 55%
Somewhat: Republicans 29% Independents 25:
TOTAL: Republicans 57% Independents 80%
Not very: Republicans 15% Independents 5%
Not at all: Republicans 24% Independents 11%
TOTAL: Republicans 39% Independents 16%

Thinking about federal income taxes, how frustrated are you about Corporations using loopholes to avoid taxes?:

Very: Republicans 49% Independents: 66%
Somewhat: Republicans 25% Independents 20%
TOTAL: Republicans 74% Independents 86%
Not very: Republicans 9% Independents 4%
Not at all: Republicans 14% Independents 6%
TOTAL: Republicans 23% Independents 10%

The second question is about loopholes. Americans overwhelmingly oppose loopholes. I would bet if you substituted Individuals for Corporations you would get a similar result. The wealthy are getting a rate cut and on top of that, a chance to lower their rates more. Americans would likely have no issue with the rate cut but big issues with loopholes. ​

 

[busybee01]

The Democrats are likely to take the House. The problem will be suburban districts. Republicans were routed in the Virginia house of Delegates. Even in Alabama, Republicans only won the suburbs by 4 points. The Democrats have done a good job of recruiting decent candidates to run. They don't have to stand for anything. Republicans didn't run on anything but opposition to Obama. That didn't hurt them in taking the House. Republicans have constantly appealed to the 30% and sometimes even less support for what Republicans have done or tried to do.

1. Republicans tried to kick poor people off of health insurance and force premiums much higher for older Americans and people with pre-existing conditions.
2. The tax bill left intact numerous loopholes for the rich including 1 that enriches Paul Ryan, Bob Corker, and Donald Trump.
3. Republicans have lurched too far to the right in repealing regulations. Something like net neutrality will be easy to explain. Treat all data equally.
.

Republicans have something to run on --> The continuation of Trumps agenda.

Then they are doomed. Americans disapprove of Trump's job performance on nearly every issue.

Only in Liberal polls.
Polls done by phone doesn't reach Trumps base.

The trouble is that Fox News is a part of state run media under Trump. The numbers they are finding are as bad as what other pollsters are finding. Is it that Trump voters don't know how to use a phone?

 

[busybee01]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

Unpopular with who? Leftists. Black unemployment is the lowest in decades. They won't be voting against results like that. No democrat voted for the tax cut. Working people won't be voting against the GOP. We may end up with super majorities in Congress.

Alabama is a good example of that. Or the 15 seats Democrats won in the Virginia House of Delegates.

 

[cutter]

Dear Millenials.
You catch a lot of grief.
There are special elections tomorrow: WI, PA, SC.
The midterms are in 295 days.
Here's what 2016 looks like if it was JUST MILLENNIALS.
This map shows your power.
And I have faith.

That blue in the map will be short lived. When all their parents are retired or dead and they have to start paying the bills they will become alot more conservative.

 

[busybee01]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

They can possibly win the Senate by a slim majority, the House? Not a chance.

Say what..look at this map 24 Democrats are up for election compared to just 8 Republicans..


Tell me what states you think a Democrat will win in a red state for Senate

Try Arizona, Tennessee and Nevada, These are Republican held seats. The big difference is that Republicans are unable to find strong challengers in North Dakota, Montana and Joe Manchin has a double digit lead in West Virginia. Indiana and Missouri are dead heats.





View attachment 171651

 

[busybee01]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

2 things

1 - Trump is not really unpopular, and certainly not as much as the media would have you believe.
2 - the map is very favorable towards republicans and has been for the better part of a decade

republicans made a concerted and successful effort to grab power in State Legislatures before the last census

so when districts were drawn; republicans had much more influence

also; one of the most important measures of "popularity" for a president is the small business confidence index

that number is higher than it has been since the early 1980's

the real signs point towards republican gains in the Senate & holding court in the House

and if things stay as they are now; Trump is very likely to win a 2nd term

They do not. The problem again is the suburbs. These districts were drawn with the idea that Republicans would continue to win in the suburbs. However that is in doubt. The Republicans got wiped out in the Virginia suburbs in the Governor's race and the House of Delegates. In the Philadelphia suburbs, Democrats picked up seats in local races for the first time in some instances and the first time in centuries in other locations. In Alabama, Republicans won the suburbs by 4.

 

[Ted Frazier]

In this thread, we discuss the likelihood that Donald Trump's unpopularity will help Democrats win a majority in 2018, in the House of Representatives. Thanks.

Good news for Democrats. The poll attached to this thread has 67% of users predicting a Republican majority.
94% predicted a Roy Moore victory in Alabama.
Will Alabama vote for Roy Moore--or vote for the Democrat?