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The EU on Friday pledged €270 million in aid for Armenia, marking Yerevan's pivot to the West. But FRANCE 24's Armen Georgian notes that geopolitically, landlocked Armenia is "in a tight spot" since it relies on Russia and Iran for gas. The big question, Georgian notes, is whether Russia and Iran will play "the energy card".
EU & US join efforts to support Armenia’s sovereignty, democracy & resilience.There is no doubt that Armenia will face economic sanctions from Russia and Iran, which will play "the energy card", if Armenia drifts away from the Russian bloc any further.
It might be thought that Russia is less sensitive about EU expansion than about NATO membership but that is a serious misunderstanding. It was Ukraine’s decision to sign an association agreement with the EU in 2014 that triggered Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the beginnings of its war in Eastern Ukraine.
When any country, especially a former ally in what the Kremlin terms the “near abroad,” begins to push for closer ties with Brussels, it is seen as an abomination in Moscow.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned Russia would seriously reconsider its relationship with Armenia if Yerevan continues drifting away and aligning with the West.
Economics are also relevant. Trade between Armenia and Russia in 2023 stood at $7.3bn — a staggering increase of 43% from 2022 (which many in the West believe is linked to enormous sanctions evasion.) Moscow could easily use this as a means of pressure.
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Armenia Seeks to Distance Mother Russia
Embattled Armenia seeks to diversify its foreign policy away from Russian support. This comes with big risks.cepa.org
There is no doubt that Armenia will face economic sanctions from Russia and Iran, which will play "the energy card", if Armenia drifts away from the Russian bloc any further.
It might be thought that Russia is less sensitive about EU expansion than about NATO membership but that is a serious misunderstanding. It was Ukraine’s decision to sign an association agreement with the EU in 2014 that triggered Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the beginnings of its war in Eastern Ukraine.
When any country, especially a former ally in what the Kremlin terms the “near abroad,” begins to push for closer ties with Brussels, it is seen as an abomination in Moscow.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned Russia would seriously reconsider its relationship with Armenia if Yerevan continues drifting away and aligning with the West.
Economics are also relevant. Trade between Armenia and Russia in 2023 stood at $7.3bn — a staggering increase of 43% from 2022 (which many in the West believe is linked to enormous sanctions evasion.) Moscow could easily use this as a means of pressure.
![]()
Armenia Seeks to Distance Mother Russia
Embattled Armenia seeks to diversify its foreign policy away from Russian support. This comes with big risks.cepa.org