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One senior administration official described the tried-and-true play as something like this: Talk tough and scare people. Follow that with some kind of provocation. Then at some point of your choosing, step back, put your weapons down and say, Well, we won that round. What are you going to do for us? Its the classic North Korea provocation-extortion cycle. U.S. officials cant guarantee the North Koreans will play it this way now. They do fully expect some type of tactical action from the North in the form of anything from a nuclear test to a computer hacking to a shelling of South Korea. But they point to natural biorhythms in North Korea that suggest the regime cannot sustain the current tempo. With the spring planting season approaching in a few weeks, North Korean soldiers will have to return to their fields and the regime will be forced to choose between target practice on paper maps of the United States and feeding their people.
The operating assumption is that we dont think he is going to stay too far from this pattern, the official said of the new North Korean leader. There may be lower lows and sharper threats that come thick and faster now, but a lot is driven by the Norths own internal requirements. At some point, this will end because they need help. And we expect to be finding ourselves hearing the North Korea sweet sounds asking for economic help. If we can get there without real bloodshed, this is not overly concerning. Generally, dictators are not suicidal, and officials believe Kim Jong Un is no different. Since his main goal seems to be staying in power, officials feel he probably realizes incurring the wrath of the worlds most powerful military might not be the smartest move. Officials and analysts say his father knew where the line was.
Yet, because the U.S. cant be sure exactly what the regime is up to and isnt sure Kim wont make a dangerous miscalculation, Washington has had to act protectively. The U.S. bolstered military exercises with South Korea with shows of force that included overflights by nuclear-capable B-2 stealth bombers, massive Cold War-era B-52s and F-22 Raptor stealth fighters. And as North Koreas threats grew more ominous, the U.S. started moving warships closer to the North Korean coast. The problem with this guy is he is so young and quite impulsive. He may walk up to the edge and stumble over it, says Victor Cha of the Center for Strategic International Studies. Maybe the U.S. is saying to him, We will show you the edge if you dont know where it is.
In large part, these moves were about sending a message to the region that the U.S. will defend its ally, South Korea. But as tough as those steps are, officials call them modest. The U.S., they said, could have dispatched a nuclear-armed warship to combat the Norths latest threat. Instead, in an effort to preserve a chance for diplomacy once Kims latest temper tantrum is over, the administration has gone to great lengths to make clear its military moves are purely defensive in nature. We had to take steps. We have an untested leader, operating at a faster provocation pace than his father did without any indication he knows when to step back, another senior administration official said. But we also need to bear in mind that unless Kim Jong Un is setting a new path, the North will declare some sort of cease-fire and say they are ready for talks. And we need to position ourselves with the Chinese and the South Koreans to be ready for that.
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The statement said the missiles, a truck-mounted launcher, and radar and target acquisition systems will be deployed in the "coming weeks." The system, called the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System, fires missiles at enemy targets in the "terminal phase" as they approach defended territory. "They have missile delivery capacity now," Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel said Wednesday in a speech at the National Defense University.
The defense system includes missiles, a truck-mounted launcher and radar.
"They have ratcheted up (their) bellicose, dangerous rhetoric - and some of the actions they've taken over the last few weeks present a real and clear danger and threat to the interests, certainly of our allies, starting with South Korea and Japan; and also the threats that the North Koreans have leveled directly at the United States regarding our base in Guam,"
Guam is about 2,000 miles from North Korea. Most observers say North Korea is still years away from having the technology to deliver a nuclear warhead on a missile, but it does have plenty of conventional military firepower, including medium-range ballistic missiles that can carry high explosives for hundreds of miles.
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The official said Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel decided to put off the long-planned Minuteman 3 test until sometime next month because of concerns the launch could be misinterpreted and exacerbate the Korean crisis. Hagel made the decision Friday, the official said. The test was not connected to the ongoing U.S.-South Korean military exercises that have been going on in that region and have stoked North Korean anger and fueled an escalation in threatening actions and rhetoric. North Korea's military warned earlier this week that it was authorized to attack the U.S. using "smaller, lighter and diversified" nuclear weapons. And South Korean officials say North Korea has moved at least one missile with "considerable range" to its east coast -- possibly the untested Musudan missile, believed to have a range of 1,800 miles. U.S. officials have said the missile move suggests a North Korean launch could be imminent and thus fuels worries in the region.
Pyongyang's moves come on the heels of the North's nuclear test in February, and the launch in December of a long-range North Korean rocket that could potentially hit the continental U.S. Added to that is the uncertainty surrounding the intentions of North Korea's new young leader, Kim Jong Un. Meanwhile, North Korea has been angered by increasing sanctions and ongoing U.S.-South Korean military exercises, which have included a broad show of force ranging from stealthy B-2 bombers and F-22 fighters to a wide array of ballistic missile defense-capable warships. The exercises are scheduled to continue through the end of the month.
This past week, the U.S. said two of the Navy's missile-defense ships were moved closer to the Korean peninsula, and a land-based system is being deployed to the Pacific territory of Guam later this month. The Pentagon last month announced longer-term plans to beef up its U.S.-based missile defenses. While Washington is taking the North Korean threats seriously, U.S. leaders continue to say that they have seen no visible signs that the North is preparing for a large-scale attack.
The defense official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the Minuteman 3 test delay and requested anonymity, said U.S. policy continues to support the building and testing of its nuclear deterrent capabilities. And the official said the launch was not put off because of any technical problems. The globe-circling intercontinental ballistic missiles make up one of the three legs of America's nuclear arsenal. There are about 450 Minuteman 3 missiles based in underground silos in the north-central U.S. The other two legs of the nuclear arsenal are submarine-launched ballistic missiles and weapons launched from big bombers, such as the B-52 and the stealthy B-2. The traditional rationale for the "nuclear triad" of weaponry is that it is essential to surviving any nuclear exchange.
Read more: US delays missile test as tensions rise, source says | Fox News
The officials warning came three days after South Koreas government said that the North had moved at least one medium-range Musudan missile with considerable range to the nations eastern border, possibly to perform a test launch. Were thoroughly preparing for this, leaving all possibilities open, said Kim Jang-Soo, South Koreas national security chief, adding that the North's likely goal is to wrench concessions from Seoul and Washington. A Musudan missile has an estimated range of up to 2,490 miles, which would make it capable of striking American bases in Guam. Escalating tensions between the nuclear-armed North and U.S.-aligned South also forced South Koreas Joint Chiefs of Staff to announce Sunday that the bodys chairman had delayed a visit to Washington, according to The Associated Press.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military said that a top commander in South Korea had also put off a trip to Washington and that the Pentagon had postponed an intercontinental ballistic missile test slated for next week. The test was "long planned and was never associated with North Korea to begin with," a senior defense official official said, but added that "given recent tensions on the Korean Peninsula, it's prudent and wise to take steps that avoid any misperception or chance of manipulation, so the test has been postponed." The test was planned for next week at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. It would have tested the Minuteman 3 ICBM missile, which has a range of about 8,000 miles, although the exact number is classified.
The weekend developments followed the North Korean militarys ominous warning last Thursday that it had been authorized to attack the U.S. using smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear weapons the latest in a series of threats of war against the U.S. since the United Nations imposed tough sanctions in response to the North's third nuclear test in February. The moment of explosion is approaching fast, the North Korean military said in a statement from an unidentified spokesperson. No one can say a war will break out in Korea or not and whether it will break out today or tomorrow, the Thursday statement said.
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said last Wednesday that North Koreas provocations represent a real and clear danger and threat to domestic security and U.S. interests. We are doing everything we can ... to defuse that situation on the peninsula, Hagel said after delivering a speech at the National Defense University at Fort McNair in Washington, D.C. North Korea has encouraged foreign ambassadors in the capital of Pyongyang to evacuate the country in order to avoid potential hostilities, according to various diplomatic officials.
But South Korea's Kim Jang-Soo suggested to reporters that the Norths warning to diplomats is likely just an attempt to heighten security fears and extract concessions from South Korea and the U.S. Top embassies, likewise, have appeared to see the North's message as mere rhetoric, according to The Associated Press. The roughly two dozen countries with embassies in North Korea had not yet announced whether they would evacuate their staffs, the AP reported. Washington and Seoul want Pyongyang to resume the six-party nuclear talks that it halted in 2009. China, Russia, and Japan were the other key players in the aborted talks.
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How did this moron get as far as he did?
Someone please let Kerry know that North Korea already has nuclear weapons.
We will not accept a nuclear North Korea, warns Kerry | The Times
