Harris / Trump Election Polls

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

 

[SassyIrishLass]

Nobody cares

 

[Delldude]

Snap polls.............get back to us in a week and a half.

 

[JohnDB]

They ALL had Hillary and Biden in 2016 and 2020 respectively up by much much more.

Meaning it's not going well.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

They ALL had Hillary and Biden in 2016 and 2020 respectively up by much much more.

Meaning it's not going well.

Duh….. Trump being down really means he’s winning

Duh…..

 

[JohnDB]

Duh….. Trump being down really means he’s winning

Duh…..

View attachment 1011992

Not necessarily.
It's the margins. The polls you are quoting are MSM polling. They have a side in this. They have an agenda to show Kamala winning for the campaign contributions and to energize their base. (Everyone wants to back a winner instead of a loser)

Considering ABC's behavior during the Debate....and now Nate Silver's "GFY" to ABC....kinda gotta wonder if he has an agenda or not.

But that's why the source of the aggregate data and then the formulas matter.
The ipsos poll is made of their membership. And before they were trying to obtain UK phone logs to sell people's private data to third parties.
Not exactly good stuff.

 

[Dragonlady]

She up to 59/40 today:

Harris wins 59 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 40 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Do you have any idea why there is such a big discrepancy between 538 and Nate Silver?

I know he’s not there anymore, but that still seems very odd to me.

Silver has started his own website and rumour is he's being by funded by Peter Thiel. For a week, Silver promised to tell us why his new model was coming up Trump winning, and every day he founded new excuses for not telling us what factors he was weighing in coming up with these forecasts.

Then he revealled that he's voting for Harris, after the debate. I'm wondering if he's hedging his bets or whether he realizes that if he gets this call wrong, his professional reputation will be toast, and no amount of Dark Money will help.

Polling guru Nate Silver reveals he's voting for Kamala Harris

Polling guru Nate Silver said during a podcast on Wednesday that he wanted VP Kamala Harris for president, but aims to be nonpartisan for his audience.

www.yahoo.com

 

[TNHarley]

Polls are ridiculous

And has been proven. Unless you are an idiot.
They even try to make up for 2016 with all these new considerations but IDC what they say. 1500 does not represent a state. 5k people does not represent our nation.

 

[Dragonlady]

Not necessarily.
It's the margins. The polls you are quoting are MSM polling. They have a side in this. They have an agenda to show Kamala winning for the campaign contributions and to energize their base. (Everyone wants to back a winner instead of a loser)

Considering ABC's behavior during the Debate....and now Nate Silver's "GFY" to ABC....kinda gotta wonder if he has an agenda or not.

But that's why the source of the aggregate data and then the formulas matter.
The ipsos poll is made of their membership. And before they were trying to obtain UK phone logs to sell people's private data to third parties.
Not exactly good stuff.

Bullshit. They all have professional reputations to protect and they've been wrong too many times lately. Who's going to pay for their polling if they're never right?