Hillary is STOMPING Christie, Jeb Bush and Walker in NJ

[Statistikhengst]

I dunno, can we maybe actually stick to the topic of the OP?

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Sorry about that, Stat.

Time to whip you with a wet noodle!!

Sticking to the principle of the OP: the idea is that "a rising tide lifts all boats". If Hillary is between +23 and +31 in New Jersey, traditionally (meaning, the last 24 years) a D +15 state, this automatically means that states with a history of higher margins (DC, VT, MA, RI, DE, CT, NY, MD) are pretty much guaranteed to be massive Hillary wins.

What WOULD be interesting right now would be to see a fresh poll from Maine because, like New Jersey, Maine is also traditionally a D +15 state.

In 2008, when it was clear that Obama was heading for a sizeable win, polling in ND and SD was showing both states in single digits (the Dakotas are traditionally R +25 or more states) confirmed that the R margins were quite depressed, usually a sign of the losing side. And on election night, 2008, McCain won both Dakotas by about +8 points instead of the usual +25.

In 1984, as it was clear that Ronald Reagan was sailing to a possible 50 state sweep of our Union, polling in Massachusetts, a traditionally very Democratic state, showing him either behind of ahead by only 1 point was some of the best proof of all that he was likely going to sweep the nation.

So, margin-patterns in states that are considered "safe" are just as instructive to study as the battleground states.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The way the GOP has gone against women, it's no wonder that Hillary tops them all. Republicans need to realize that women vote.........in numbers.......

That "war on women" thing went sooo fucking well for you in 2014....

The woman vote at worst skews 60-40. Are we at "war" with the 40% floor that votes republican as well?

That would be +20 for the Democratic candidate. No Republican can win the White House and lose the female vote by 20 points, especially considering that a Republican cannot expect more than 10% of the Black vote, if at all, 30% of the Asian vote, 20% of the American Indian vote, and if things continue, 20% of the Latino vote.

Right now, Clinton is winning in the women's vote in most state polls and in most matchups by circa +25, sometimes as high as +32.

It's simple arithmetic.

 

[martybegan]

The way the GOP has gone against women, it's no wonder that Hillary tops them all. Republicans need to realize that women vote.........in numbers.......

That "war on women" thing went sooo fucking well for you in 2014....

The woman vote at worst skews 60-40. Are we at "war" with the 40% floor that votes republican as well?

That would be +20 for the Democratic candidate. No Republican can win the White House and lose the female vote by 20 points, especially considering that a Republican cannot expect more than 10% of the Black vote, if at all, 30% of the Asian vote, 20% of the American Indian vote, and if things continue, 20% of the Latino vote.

Right now, Clinton is winning in the women's vote in most state polls and in most matchups by circa +25, sometimes as high as +32.

It's simple arithmetic.

That would work except for the electoral college. You guys keep forgetting about that one.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The way the GOP has gone against women, it's no wonder that Hillary tops them all. Republicans need to realize that women vote.........in numbers.......

GOP needs improve their outreach to women by keeping 16 year old women as sex slaves.

 

[Carla_Danger]

The way the GOP has gone against women, it's no wonder that Hillary tops them all. Republicans need to realize that women vote.........in numbers.......

GOP needs improve their outreach to women by keeping 16 year old women as sex slaves.

Maybe they should try the factual information instead of tabloid approach. Just saying...

 

[Esmeralda]

The way the GOP has gone against women, it's no wonder that Hillary tops them all. Republicans need to realize that women vote.........in numbers.......

GOP needs improve their outreach to women by keeping 16 year old women as sex slaves.

Maybe they should try the factual information instead of tabloid approach. Just saying...

 

[Statistikhengst]

The way the GOP has gone against women, it's no wonder that Hillary tops them all. Republicans need to realize that women vote.........in numbers.......

That "war on women" thing went sooo fucking well for you in 2014....

The woman vote at worst skews 60-40. Are we at "war" with the 40% floor that votes republican as well?

That would be +20 for the Democratic candidate. No Republican can win the White House and lose the female vote by 20 points, especially considering that a Republican cannot expect more than 10% of the Black vote, if at all, 30% of the Asian vote, 20% of the American Indian vote, and if things continue, 20% of the Latino vote.

Right now, Clinton is winning in the women's vote in most state polls and in most matchups by circa +25, sometimes as high as +32.

It's simple arithmetic.

That would work except for the electoral college. You guys keep forgetting about that one.

Oh, no, I haven't forgotten that. Right now, according to polling, Hillary is STARTING at 311 EV. STARTING.

 

[HenryBHough]

Day is rapidly fading and still no reports of any Hillary sightings.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Day is rapidly fading and still no reports of any Hillary sightings.

I know that with your mental illness, it may be very, very hard for you to concentrate on anything, what with your brains firmly up your loose ass, so, to help you, here is the OP title AGAIN:

Hillary is STOMPING Christie, Jeb Bush and Walker in NJ

It's about specific polling values in NJ, not about whether you sighted Hillary Clinton.

 

[martybegan]

The way the GOP has gone against women, it's no wonder that Hillary tops them all. Republicans need to realize that women vote.........in numbers.......

That "war on women" thing went sooo fucking well for you in 2014....

The woman vote at worst skews 60-40. Are we at "war" with the 40% floor that votes republican as well?

That would be +20 for the Democratic candidate. No Republican can win the White House and lose the female vote by 20 points, especially considering that a Republican cannot expect more than 10% of the Black vote, if at all, 30% of the Asian vote, 20% of the American Indian vote, and if things continue, 20% of the Latino vote.

Right now, Clinton is winning in the women's vote in most state polls and in most matchups by circa +25, sometimes as high as +32.

It's simple arithmetic.

That would work except for the electoral college. You guys keep forgetting about that one.

Oh, no, I haven't forgotten that. Right now, according to polling, Hillary is STARTING at 311 EV. STARTING.

In February 2015. That's like going 4-0 in pre-season football a season earlier.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The way the GOP has gone against women, it's no wonder that Hillary tops them all. Republicans need to realize that women vote.........in numbers.......

That "war on women" thing went sooo fucking well for you in 2014....

The woman vote at worst skews 60-40. Are we at "war" with the 40% floor that votes republican as well?

That would be +20 for the Democratic candidate. No Republican can win the White House and lose the female vote by 20 points, especially considering that a Republican cannot expect more than 10% of the Black vote, if at all, 30% of the Asian vote, 20% of the American Indian vote, and if things continue, 20% of the Latino vote.

Right now, Clinton is winning in the women's vote in most state polls and in most matchups by circa +25, sometimes as high as +32.

It's simple arithmetic.

That would work except for the electoral college. You guys keep forgetting about that one.

Oh, no, I haven't forgotten that. Right now, according to polling, Hillary is STARTING at 311 EV. STARTING.

In February 2015. That's like going 4-0 in pre-season football a season earlier.

Well, ok. And when in one year, just as one year ago, the same data is coming in showing the GOP getting a pasting from Hillary all over the place, I will remind you of this thread.

 

[Derideo_Te]

I dunno, can we maybe actually stick to the topic of the OP?

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NEVER!

Too bland. Needs color.

Now, back to the OP:

the reason why the data is so interesting is not that Hillary is winning in NJ. We expect that to happen. It's the massive margins, uncharacteristic of this state, that make it worth looking at.

NJ elected Krispie Kreme as a backlash against the Goldman-Sachs mogul with the broken leg. It is also one of the most informed electorates in the nation IMO. His re-election was a combination of Hurricane Sandy and political election gerrymandering by excluding Cory Booker from November at the expense of NJ taxpayers.

His Bridgegate albatross has exposed him as being, at best, a very poor judge of character to have surrounded himself with a gang of criminals.

So his lousy polling makes him unlikely to attract GOP establishment funding for 2016 since it doesn't look like he can carry his own home state. At this point he is toast IMO.

Hilary's numbers in NJ might foretell a sweep but they give hope to other Dem candidates. I would love to see how Warren matches up in NJ.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The way the GOP has gone against women, it's no wonder that Hillary tops them all. Republicans need to realize that women vote.........in numbers.......

GOP needs improve their outreach to women by keeping 16 year old women as sex slaves.

Maybe they should try the factual information instead of tabloid approach. Just saying...

I'm sure Hillary's primary opponents will do their own fact finding

 

[TyroneSlothrop]

Even at their favorite table Hillary can beat their best.....

 

[JoeB131]

A man who does not believe in evolution and who kowtows to the right wing extremists? I don't care how blue collar he is, he is not likely to be president with those qualities.

Evolution is not a winning issue when 42% of the population thinks that it happened just the way the Bible says it did.

 

[JoeB131]

Are you serious? He's the one that is set on destroying unions.......a moderate Democrat is way better than a right-wing extremist any day.

Here's the problem with that. MOst of us don't have State union jobs where you can retire at 50, and get six figure pension, all of which are paid for by joe citizen, and it's damned near impossible to fire you unless you show up drunk to work.

 

[HenryBHough]

Sun's gone down and Hillary is sundowning in some secret place.....where nobody seems to be able to find her.

Remember Vince Foster's car?

If you can find it, check the trunk......

 

[Statistikhengst]

A man who does not believe in evolution and who kowtows to the right wing extremists? I don't care how blue collar he is, he is not likely to be president with those qualities.

Evolution is not a winning issue when 42% of the population thinks that it happened just the way the Bible says it did.

Yes, that is a wee bit scary, now isn't it.

But with things like economy, military, civil rights, health care.... on the front burner, I am just not so sure how much traction the Evo-birthers are going to get....

 

[Esmeralda]

A man who does not believe in evolution and who kowtows to the right wing extremists? I don't care how blue collar he is, he is not likely to be president with those qualities.

Evolution is not a winning issue when 42% of the population thinks that it happened just the way the Bible says it did.

42% of Americans do not believe in evolution? It's amazing the US is not already a 3rd world country.

This is what I found about this. It is mainly Republicans who do not believe in evolution:

"Some 54 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of Democrats said they believed in evolution in 2009. That ten-point gap more than doubled in the latest survey, which found that only 43 percent of Republicans believe in evolution while 67 percent of Democrats said humans have evolved over time.Jan 1, 2014"
A third of Americans don't believe in evolution - Phys.org
phys.org/news/2014-01-americans-dont-evolution.html

 

[JoeB131]

42% of Americans do not believe in evolution? It's amazing the US is not already a 3rd world country.

This is what I found about this. It is mainly Republicans who do not believe in evolution:

"Some 54 percent of Republicans and 64 percent of Democrats said they believed in evolution in 2009. That ten-point gap more than doubled in the latest survey, which found that only 43 percent of Republicans believe in evolution while 67 percent of Democrats said humans have evolved over time.Jan 1, 2014"
A third of Americans don't believe in evolution - Phys.org

I think the problem is, the concept of evolution is too much for a lot of people to take in. If we evolved, then there isn't a God, there isn't a happy place you go after you die, all your dead loved ones are really gone for good and you will never see them again.

Much nicer to think that there's a magic pixie in the sky who loves you and all this pain and misery we all go through is for a reason.

So again, it you want to go after Walker, who I think would be the most formidable GOP candidate, this is not the issue to do it on. Neither is the fact that he didn't get a college degree when 68% of Americans don't have one.