How can there be a political settlement to Putin's war in Ukraine (and Georgia and Lithuania

[bendog]

The US of course has it's own ironic "myths" such our role in the world as a guarantor of individual rights, and Russia likewise has it's own myth of being the guarantor of Slavic rights, going back the 1800's and with tragic consequences in 1918, and even into today with viewing Ukraine as "Little Russia."

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/161208_Zevelev_RussianNationalIdentity_Web.pdf

Little Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The concept, of a unified Ukrainian political will to be economically oriented to the West's free market ideology, it totally at odds with the Russian myth of all Slavs tied to one, with Moscow being the leader. And, from the West's point of view, it goes back at least 45 years to the Russian Empire's dissolution (which Putin has never seen as final). From the West's perspective, Russia minus its empire was welcome to join the club of markets, and given the willingness of the West to buy its carbon and produce, it's population within its borders should enjoy affluence even if they never mastered manufacturing consumer goods to compete with the West. But a non-imperial Russia is not consistent with the Russian myth.

And that is why Merkle was confounded by Putin in Crimea, even questioning his sanity. Neither he nor Merkle were the least bit insane, but they never understood the other's assumption of the other's view of their state.

So, Biden apparently is unwilling to give the former Russian "republics" the technology to end Russia's army's existence outside its borders. Presumably he fears that would lead Putin to a suicidal attack on life on this planet. Meanwhile, Putin shows no inclination to withdrawing his military into Russia's own borders.

I don't see a win-win finale to this anymore than I saw a democratic middle east.

 

[Donald H]

Understanding it and accepting it as America's war against Russia, can help to provide some answers through expanding thinking on possible outcomes.

That could facilitate finding a win-win finale, at least imagined as possible.

Here's an idea as an opener for those who are interested.

I see a US victory that includes the return of all territory to the Ukraine, including the Crimea.

But possibly beside the point, I definitely don't see any possibility of Russia accepting defeat.

Most of the difficulty in seeing the possible outcome is impossible because it's still not widely accepted that this is another of America's wars of aggression.

It's almost certainly the final war for America to defeat Russia. The China, Russia, India, etc. alliance will put an end to future US wars for the purpose of global hegemony.

Therein are lots of possibilities to imagine for those who have an interest in knowing.

 

[JoeB131]

The US of course has it's own ironic "myths" such our role in the world as a guarantor of individual rights, and Russia likewise has it's own myth of being the guarantor of Slavic rights, going back the 1800's and with tragic consequences in 1918, and even into today with viewing Ukraine as "Little Russia."

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/161208_Zevelev_RussianNationalIdentity_Web.pdf

Little Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The concept, of a unified Ukrainian political will to be economically oriented to the West's free market ideology, it totally at odds with the Russian myth of all Slavs tied to one, with Moscow being the leader. And, from the West's point of view, it goes back at least 45 years to the Russian Empire's dissolution (which Putin has never seen as final). From the West's perspective, Russia minus its empire was welcome to join the club of markets, and given the willingness of the West to buy its carbon and produce, it's population within its borders should enjoy affluence even if they never mastered manufacturing consumer goods to compete with the West. But a non-imperial Russia is not consistent with the Russian myth.

And that is why Merkle was confounded by Putin in Crimea, even questioning his sanity. Neither he nor Merkle were the least bit insane, but they never understood the other's assumption of the other's view of their state.

So, Biden apparently is unwilling to give the former Russian "republics" the technology to end Russia's army's existence outside its borders. Presumably he fears that would lead Putin to a suicidal attack on life on this planet. Meanwhile, Putin shows no inclination to withdrawing his military into Russia's own borders.

I don't see a win-win finale to this anymore than I saw a democratic middle east.

Probably not. THe best solution would be to sit down at the negotiating table with the following.

1) Russia gets to keep the Donbass and Crimea.
2) They will compensate Ukraine for the territory and compensate displaced Ukainians.
3) Ukraine will then be allowed to join NATO and the EU.

 

[bendog]

Probably not. THe best solution would be to sit down at the negotiating table with the following.

1) Russia gets to keep the Donbass and Crimea.
2) They will compensate Ukraine for the territory and compensate displaced Ukainians.
3) Ukraine will then be allowed to join NATO and the EU.

That would be a sensible resolution, but it would require Russia to accept that Slav or Rus people could be aligned to a different econ market than the one Russia dictates as being in their best interests. I don't think that will ever happen, unless the Ukrainians win on the battlefield, and if they do, why would they give any territory

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Any rational discussions ended when Lithuania was ordered to cut off Kalininagrad.

The owners of Ukraine, the WEF, want and need to expand the conflict

 

[ESay]

The Korean scenario. It seems there the conflict is heading.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Probably not. THe best solution would be to sit down at the negotiating table with the following.

1) Russia gets to keep the Donbass and Crimea.
2) They will compensate Ukraine for the territory and compensate displaced Ukainians.
3) Ukraine will then be allowed to join NATO and the EU.

The question is, who would sit down at the negotiating table? The Ukrainians have made it clear that they are unwilling to give up any more territory to the Russian gangster, so who would sit down sit down at the table to agree to such a deal?

 

[Litwin]

The US of course has it's own ironic "myths" such our role in the world as a guarantor of individual rights, and Russia likewise has it's own myth of being the guarantor of Slavic rights, going back the 1800's and with tragic consequences in 1918, and even into today with viewing Ukraine as "Little Russia."

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/161208_Zevelev_RussianNationalIdentity_Web.pdf

Little Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The concept, of a unified Ukrainian political will to be economically oriented to the West's free market ideology, it totally at odds with the Russian myth of all Slavs tied to one, with Moscow being the leader. And, from the West's point of view, it goes back at least 45 years to the Russian Empire's dissolution (which Putin has never seen as final). From the West's perspective, Russia minus its empire was welcome to join the club of markets, and given the willingness of the West to buy its carbon and produce, it's population within its borders should enjoy affluence even if they never mastered manufacturing consumer goods to compete with the West. But a non-imperial Russia is not consistent with the Russian myth.

And that is why Merkle was confounded by Putin in Crimea, even questioning his sanity. Neither he nor Merkle were the least bit insane, but they never understood the other's assumption of the other's view of their state.

So, Biden apparently is unwilling to give the former Russian "republics" the technology to end Russia's army's existence outside its borders. Presumably he fears that would lead Putin to a suicidal attack on life on this planet. Meanwhile, Putin shows no inclination to withdrawing his military into Russia's own borders.

I don't see a win-win finale to this anymore than I saw a democratic middle east.

there is the only one solution !

 

[bendog]

The question is, who would sit down at the negotiating table? The Ukrainians have made it clear that they are unwilling to give up any more territory to the Russian gangster, so who would sit down sit down at the table to agree to such a deal?

I fear Biden will provide just enough military aid for Ukraine to "stay in the game" to reach a stalemate in Donbas, and cut off at least some portion of Russia's snaking occupation of the coast in the South, and leave Ukraine with no option but to cede land and join the EU

 

[Zincwarrior]

Lithuania is a NATO member, thats its political solution.

I agree with the NK / SK scenario. What happens after is the question: is it NK / SK or NV / SV...

 

[ESay]

Lithuania is a NATO member, thats its political solution.

I agree with the NK / SK scenario. What happens after is the question: is it NK / SK or NV / SV...

What is NV/SV?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Do you really not understand what's happened in Russia as a result of the sanctions? The EU will not receive oil and gas, instead it will be shipped to China, India and Iran. Moreover those countries will pay for the oil in rubles. Sanctions are hurting the EU and the USA far worse than they hurt Russia

NATO will have a hard time keeping the lights on this winter especially as the Earth continues to cool.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

What is NV/SV?

Vietnam?

 

[ESay]

Vietnam?

Yes, got it.

 

[ESay]

I fear Biden will provide just enough military aid for Ukraine to "stay in the game" to reach a stalemate in Donbas, and cut off at least some portion of Russia's snaking occupation of the coast in the South, and leave Ukraine with no option but to cede land and join the EU

It is hardly believable Ukraine will formaly cede any land. Not after the war happened.

 

[Sunni Man]

Probably not. THe best solution would be to sit down at the negotiating table with the following.
1) Russia gets to keep the Donbass and Crimea.
2) They will compensate Ukraine for the territory and compensate displaced Ukainians.
3) Ukraine will then be allowed to join NATO and the EU.

Russia might have been willing to settle for those terms in the first week or two of the conflict.
But from day 1 the U.S. and EU started ramping up the pro war rhetoric and pouring vast amounts of weapons into Ukraine.
So that now negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is basically off the table. ....

 

[bendog]

Any rational discussions ended when Lithuania was ordered to cut off Kalininagrad.

The owners of Ukraine, the WEF, want and need to expand the conflict

Putin ended rational discussion when he invaded.

And while Russia continues to sell oil for payment in rubles at what would be suicidal prices but for the oil price increases, what's happened is Russia has divorced itself from Western markets, and that included machinery, parts, and technology (that can't be stolen) ... all of which Russia has proven itself incapable of making itself. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, the West went along on a sort of self-deluded theory of trade ... that Russia would sell carbon and buy goods it cannot produce, and Russia would - by and large - stay within it's borders. But Russia invaded Crimea (despite having a 99 year lease) and continued to forment secession in Donbas, because with Euromaidan Ukraine's western majority made its choice as to Ukraine's economic orientation, and it wasn't for Russian goods and it couldn't pay for the carbon.

In short, Russia wanted a trade cartel of states beholden to Russia for the carbon. He's gotten that, but it may not turn out to be a cartel that can allow Russia to pursue a 21st century economy.

 

[Sunni Man]

I fear Biden will provide just enough military aid for Ukraine to "stay in the game" to reach a stalemate in Donbas,

That ship has already sailed.
Russia controls 95% of the Donbas region and is steadily decimating the remaining Ukrainian insurgents.
In fact, the residents of Donbas are now being issued Russian citizenship papers and passports.

 

[toomuchtime_]

I fear Biden will provide just enough military aid for Ukraine to "stay in the game" to reach a stalemate in Donbas, and cut off at least some portion of Russia's snaking occupation of the coast in the South, and leave Ukraine with no option but to cede land and join the EU

I think Biden and the European leaders have two goals: first to stop Russia from acquiring any more of land in Ukraine and second, to avoid a larger war. That makes this a long, long war of attrition that has the goal of making this war cost the Russia state and Russian people much more than that acquisition of Ukrainian land is worth.

Since Putin has violated all relevant international laws and treaties by invading Ukraine, there is no rational basis for believing any new agreement signed by Putin would survive, so barring a massive change in popular sentiment in the US and Europe, which doesn't seem likely at this point, I don't see any possibility of any agreement until after a complete Russian withdrawal from Occupied Ukraine.

 

[Zincwarrior]

What is NV/SV?

Sorry, North Vietnam...