StatesPoll
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- Dec 27, 2015
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- #1
I predict GOP going to win Florida in 2016, If GOP nominates conservative candidate like Trump or Carson with white voters factor.
Florida is normaly considered as swing state. But since 2015, General Elecion Polls outcome, It says it is becoming to Red state from Swing state.
1. Latest Poll
Florida Atlantic University(11/15~11/16, 829 RV) Trump 49% | Hillary 41%
Florida Atlantic University(11/15~11/16, 829 RV) Carson 50% | Hillary 41%
reference: Polls : Florida Atlantic University - College of Business
2. Demographic in Florida
1) Total
White 56% | Hispanic 24% | Black 17% | Asian 3%
2) Actual influence on the election, Vote shares + Voting Rate(turn out)
White 63.5% | Hispanic 17% | Black 17.5% | Asian 2%
Normally, Democrat has lead on Hispanic on National USA to GOP with 7:3 ratio.
But in flordia, There are many Cuban Hispanics is living. Which is more conservative than other Hispanics. (Most of them ran away from Castro Communsim Cuba.) Cuban Hispanics Population in florida nearly to 1.5 million. (1/3 of Hispanic who live in florida.) Election 2012, GOP gathered 40% support from Cuban Hispanic. (Democrat gathered 50% support)
so in florida Democrat doesnt have much advantage from the hispanic.
(with 10% leads, just 1.7% advantage from actual vote share of Total Votes)
In my Opinon, if GOP gather just bit more white support compare to 2012 election.(which was 61%) can easily win with Racial vote share forecast in 2016.(Black won’t vote Enthusiastic as They did 2008,2012(they had motivation to make Black president). But, in 2016 there is no Black candidate of Democrat, White going to vote enthusiastic if Trump become candidate becuz of terrorism,Immigration factors.
3. Conclusion) if GOP get 64% support from White, 40% from hispanic,
10% from Black, 50% from Asian(got 48% in mid term election 2014)
White 63.5%(actual vote share) x 63.5% = 40.32%
Hispanic 17% (actual vote share) x 40% = 6.8%
Black 17.5%(actual vote share) x 10% = 1.75%
Asian 2% (actual vote share) x 50% = 1%
Total 49.87% enough to Win(because 3rd candidates gonna gather around 1% at least)
It isnt hard at all, GOP raise white support from 61%(2012)
to 63.5%(2016) because of Terrorism and immigration issues.
As I wrote on the above, Trump and Carson already got 49~50% on the Florida general election Poll against to hillary. (consider there was 10% respondent was ‘unsure’ if GOP,Democrat split 5:5 ratio,
actual poll outcome was kinda GOP 54~55% Hillary 46%.
Personally, I predict GOP going to win Florida in 2016, If GOP nominates conservative candidate like Trump or Carson with white voters factor.
Florida is normaly considered as swing state. But since 2015, General Elecion Polls outcome, It says it is becoming to Red state from Swing state.
1. Latest Poll
Florida Atlantic University(11/15~11/16, 829 RV) Trump 49% | Hillary 41%
Florida Atlantic University(11/15~11/16, 829 RV) Carson 50% | Hillary 41%
reference: Polls : Florida Atlantic University - College of Business
2. Demographic in Florida
1) Total
White 56% | Hispanic 24% | Black 17% | Asian 3%
2) Actual influence on the election, Vote shares + Voting Rate(turn out)
White 63.5% | Hispanic 17% | Black 17.5% | Asian 2%
Normally, Democrat has lead on Hispanic on National USA to GOP with 7:3 ratio.
But in flordia, There are many Cuban Hispanics is living. Which is more conservative than other Hispanics. (Most of them ran away from Castro Communsim Cuba.) Cuban Hispanics Population in florida nearly to 1.5 million. (1/3 of Hispanic who live in florida.) Election 2012, GOP gathered 40% support from Cuban Hispanic. (Democrat gathered 50% support)
so in florida Democrat doesnt have much advantage from the hispanic.
(with 10% leads, just 1.7% advantage from actual vote share of Total Votes)
In my Opinon, if GOP gather just bit more white support compare to 2012 election.(which was 61%) can easily win with Racial vote share forecast in 2016.(Black won’t vote Enthusiastic as They did 2008,2012(they had motivation to make Black president). But, in 2016 there is no Black candidate of Democrat, White going to vote enthusiastic if Trump become candidate becuz of terrorism,Immigration factors.
3. Conclusion) if GOP get 64% support from White, 40% from hispanic,
10% from Black, 50% from Asian(got 48% in mid term election 2014)
White 63.5%(actual vote share) x 63.5% = 40.32%
Hispanic 17% (actual vote share) x 40% = 6.8%
Black 17.5%(actual vote share) x 10% = 1.75%
Asian 2% (actual vote share) x 50% = 1%
Total 49.87% enough to Win(because 3rd candidates gonna gather around 1% at least)
It isnt hard at all, GOP raise white support from 61%(2012)
to 63.5%(2016) because of Terrorism and immigration issues.
As I wrote on the above, Trump and Carson already got 49~50% on the Florida general election Poll against to hillary. (consider there was 10% respondent was ‘unsure’ if GOP,Democrat split 5:5 ratio,
actual poll outcome was kinda GOP 54~55% Hillary 46%.
Personally, I predict GOP going to win Florida in 2016, If GOP nominates conservative candidate like Trump or Carson with white voters factor.
