Live by the Polls, Die by the Polls

[Procrustes Stretched]

Also....
Latest polling shows that where Kamala had pulled even with Trump in total number of votes (always behind in electoral college votes) She is now dropping once again and Donald is staying steady in pecentages.

New large scale poll is supposed to come out today or tomorrow

We'll see what comes.

We shall see.

Would love to see the gymnastics you'll be doing if Trump looks bad

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Utter garbage

truth: MAGA has been losing ground since 2020.

 

[JohnDB]

We shall see.

Would love to see the gymnastics you'll be doing if Trump looks bad

I'm not "pro-Trump" or pro-Harris or "anti" either one of them.

I've been watching elections for 50+ years.
There are the customary things that have gone on all these years and then we got all the new twists of things they think work better. HA!

Since the advent of the poll explosion where a bunch of people are doing them now federally instead of just localized polsters polling their specific areas....the polls have been a train wreck of incompetence and illogical formulas. Because in essence it boils down to the calculus formulas and a lot of grunt labor.

And many simply can't math.

The pollsters give extra weight to democratic party voters for a wide variety of reasons that have to do with human behavior. But how much extra weight is the BIG QUESTION.
And for the last 5 elections the polls somehow believe they are influencing the outcome of the election. Kinda like the tail wagging the dog here.

That's why when 538 pulls the Rasmussen poll out of their "poll averages" even though they have systematically been one of the top 5 most accurate....it tends to beg the question "WHY?"

Rasmussen is prolific in posting their information on social media and their website because the traffic they receive causes them to receive revenue on Social Media.

Now who is participating on social media? Is it just Republicans or is it a variety of sources of people groups?

Just because you do not like the message...do not discount what they are saying. Currently nationwide Trump holds a 2% lead over Harris which is growing as it was just 1.6 after being in a dead heat.
Harris should have published a platform....but she didn't. She would have some sort of message to rally around. She could have climbed up and beyond where she is now.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

I'm not "pro-Trump" or pro-Harris or "anti" either one of them.

I've been watching elections for 50+ years.
There are the customary things that have gone on all these years and then we got all the new twists of things they think work better. HA!

Since the advent of the poll explosion where a bunch of people are doing them now federally instead of just localized polsters polling their specific areas....the polls have been a train wreck of incompetence and illogical formulas. Because in essence it boils down to the calculus formulas and a lot of grunt labor.

And many simply can't math.

The pollsters give extra weight to democratic party voters for a wide variety of reasons that have to do with human behavior. But how much extra weight is the BIG QUESTION.
And for the last 5 elections the polls somehow believe they are influencing the outcome of the election. Kinda like the tail wagging the dog here.

That's why when 538 pulls the Rasmussen poll out of their "poll averages" even though they have systematically been one of the top 5 most accurate....it tends to beg the question "WHY?"

Rasmussen is prolific in posting their information on social media and their website because the traffic they receive causes them to receive revenue on Social Media.

Now who is participating on social media? Is it just Republicans or is it a variety of sources of people groups?

Just because you do not like the message...do not discount what they are saying. Currently nationwide Trump holds a 2% lead over Harris which is growing as it was just 1.6 after being in a dead heat.
Harris should have published a platform....but she didn't. She would have some sort of message to rally around. She could have climbed up and beyond where she is now.

Most people are confused with what polls are, what pollsters actually do, and what people who analyze polls are usually doing.

If it all so simple, life would be. Maybe you too confuse the horse race polls in elections, for other polls.

 

[JohnDB]

 

[JohnDB]

This one makes zero logical sense. Popular Vote count and EC are way off from each other. Like stupid off.