May 8, 2020: The unemployment figures and "expectations"

[RealDave]

Another Trump record.

 

[Mac1958]

Muhammed El-Erian is one of my favorite thinkers on Wall Street, not given to cheerleading in either direction, always clear and pragmatic. Like anyone else, he can be wrong, but you may want to watch this.

 

[DOTR]

For the last few weeks we've shifted from the generalized panic following the onset of the pandemic to the "expectations game". Going forward, markets, business behaviors and consumer sentiment won't be based as much on raw data as they will be by how the data compares to "expectations".

So who is in charge of establishing these "expectations"? Well, that's a great question. First, it's almost irrelevant, since the expectations are taken very seriously by markets. But it's generally a rough average of reports by analysts at a few of the larger banks, analytical firms, investment companies and others.

So, the "expectations" of today's upcoming report is that the economy lost about 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate is at about 16%. So if the actual data -- even though it will be adjusted later -- is below those numbers, markets will love it. If the actual data is worse, not so much.

This is a moment in history at which the stock market and the economy are so decoupled that they don't resemble each other at all. The dichotomy of millions losing their jobs and a surging stock market has been astonishing. But right now, the key word is "expectations". So we'll see.

The stock market responds to expectations of easy money(ZIRP), QE forever, bailouts and the Fed "put". Its unsustainable but if you know nothing else at all you should know the adage "dont fight the fed".

Also, part of that action is sending minute amounts of money to huge numbers of low net worth households for them to immediately spend on big screen Tvs and Iphones and, by virtue of lock down orders, shopping on Amazon while whiling away the days surfing Facebook. A little convoluted but it does get the money to silicone valley ultimately.


The "broad market" as described in the S&P 500...

 

[edthecynic]

I notice the Right no longer use either of the "REAL" unemployment figures they used for Obama, the U-6 at 22.8% or the Tramp "REAL" UE rate which includes the "not working but eating" as Russia Limpboy likes to call them, at 78.9%.

 

[evenflow1969]

Our economy is screwed and the politicians are completely to blame.

There is hope! After the 1918 pandemic the roaring twenties followed. All these people under self quarintine will have a shit load of pent up energy to expend and there is a great amount of work not being done right now because people are not at work. Some of this work will have to be caught up on. I am not going to pretend to have a crystle ball but not all indicators are negative. Lets have a little hope here and strive to over come this shit in the future.

After the 1918 pandemic the US had a surge of economic activity because the Europeans were rebuilding after the war, that situation doesn't exist today.

according to our civil engineers report that condition exists here today but we have known about it for years and done nothing. hell even trump listed this as a problem during his campaign. To bad they did not pursue the issues would have beeen the one cross the isle thing that couold have been done

 

[sparky]

For the last few weeks we've shifted from the generalized panic following the onset of the pandemic to the "expectations game". Going forward, markets, business behaviors and consumer sentiment won't be based as much on raw data as they will be by how the data compares to "expectations".

So who is in charge of establishing these "expectations"? Well, that's a great question. First, it's almost irrelevant, since the expectations are taken very seriously by markets. But it's generally a rough average of reports by analysts at a few of the larger banks, analytical firms, investment companies and others.

So, the "expectations" of today's upcoming report is that the economy lost about 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate is at about 16%. So if the actual data -- even though it will be adjusted later -- is below those numbers, markets will love it. If the actual data is worse, not so much.

This is a moment in history at which the stock market and the economy are so decoupled that they don't resemble each other at all. The dichotomy of millions losing their jobs and a surging stock market has been astonishing. But right now, the key word is "expectations". So we'll see.

Just proves how massive government spending benefits big corporations, while doing little for small business.

The politicians know where their bread is buttered.

Yet another signal of a dying empire.

Yep. We allow money to control our political system, and that's exactly what it's doing.

we're allowing $$$ to manipulate everything Mac
including Doc fucko's vaccine ,the pharmacabal's piece of the pie, the police state's new jackboots ,and did i hear Congress got a raise in all of this???

~S~

 

[Mac1958]

For the last few weeks we've shifted from the generalized panic following the onset of the pandemic to the "expectations game". Going forward, markets, business behaviors and consumer sentiment won't be based as much on raw data as they will be by how the data compares to "expectations".

So who is in charge of establishing these "expectations"? Well, that's a great question. First, it's almost irrelevant, since the expectations are taken very seriously by markets. But it's generally a rough average of reports by analysts at a few of the larger banks, analytical firms, investment companies and others.

So, the "expectations" of today's upcoming report is that the economy lost about 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate is at about 16%. So if the actual data -- even though it will be adjusted later -- is below those numbers, markets will love it. If the actual data is worse, not so much.

This is a moment in history at which the stock market and the economy are so decoupled that they don't resemble each other at all. The dichotomy of millions losing their jobs and a surging stock market has been astonishing. But right now, the key word is "expectations". So we'll see.

Just proves how massive government spending benefits big corporations, while doing little for small business.

The politicians know where their bread is buttered.

Yet another signal of a dying empire.

Yep. We allow money to control our political system, and that's exactly what it's doing.

we're allowing $$$ to manipulate everything Mac
including Doc fucko's vaccine ,the pharmacabal's piece of the pie, the police state's new jackboots ,and did i hear Congress got a raise in all of this???

~S~

Capitalism is changing before our very eyes. The most important element of the capitalist system is no longer the consumer, it's the Federal fucking Reserve.

Not the way this is supposed to work. Something is broken.

 

[there4eyeM]

Our economy is screwed and the politicians are completely to blame.

Some might suggest that it is rather those who put the politicians where they are who are to blame. Who voted these people in and then maintained them in place?

 

[mudwhistle]

It has amazed me the stock market has not been tanking every single day.
Appears the market has been able to differentiate between a temporary pandemic, and a true economic collapse.

I don’t see this as temporary.

We will not ring a bell and have everything return to normal. Many businesses will not return. Social distancing will force many to operate at limited capacity. People are wary of crowds and crowds mean profits.
We still don’t have a vaccine and may not have one till next year. We can’t return to “normal” until we do
Our economic machine will remain in low gear for some time

I remember when Obama said the same thing......that jobs wouldn't return......but they did anyway....then he took credit for their return......then he unleashed his biggest attack on the American economy....the Wuhan Flu.....and the Media Pandemic.

I suggest the solution to all of this is go down to CNN and burn the place to the ground.

 

[mudwhistle]

For the last few weeks we've shifted from the generalized panic following the onset of the pandemic to the "expectations game". Going forward, markets, business behaviors and consumer sentiment won't be based as much on raw data as they will be by how the data compares to "expectations".

So who is in charge of establishing these "expectations"? Well, that's a great question. First, it's almost irrelevant, since the expectations are taken very seriously by markets. But it's generally a rough average of reports by analysts at a few of the larger banks, analytical firms, investment companies and others.

So, the "expectations" of today's upcoming report is that the economy lost about 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate is at about 16%. So if the actual data -- even though it will be adjusted later -- is below those numbers, markets will love it. If the actual data is worse, not so much.

This is a moment in history at which the stock market and the economy are so decoupled that they don't resemble each other at all. The dichotomy of millions losing their jobs and a surging stock market has been astonishing. But right now, the key word is "expectations". So we'll see.

Just proves how massive government spending benefits big corporations, while doing little for small business.

The politicians know where their bread is buttered.

Yet another signal of a dying empire.

Yep. We allow money to control our political system, and that's exactly what it's doing.

we're allowing $$$ to manipulate everything Mac
including Doc fucko's vaccine ,the pharmacabal's piece of the pie, the police state's new jackboots ,and did i hear Congress got a raise in all of this???

~S~

Capitalism is changing before our very eyes. The most important element of the capitalist system is no longer the consumer, it's the Federal fucking Reserve.

Not the way this is supposed to work. Something is broken.

Yep.....something is broke

 

[gipper]

For the last few weeks we've shifted from the generalized panic following the onset of the pandemic to the "expectations game". Going forward, markets, business behaviors and consumer sentiment won't be based as much on raw data as they will be by how the data compares to "expectations".

So who is in charge of establishing these "expectations"? Well, that's a great question. First, it's almost irrelevant, since the expectations are taken very seriously by markets. But it's generally a rough average of reports by analysts at a few of the larger banks, analytical firms, investment companies and others.

So, the "expectations" of today's upcoming report is that the economy lost about 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate is at about 16%. So if the actual data -- even though it will be adjusted later -- is below those numbers, markets will love it. If the actual data is worse, not so much.

This is a moment in history at which the stock market and the economy are so decoupled that they don't resemble each other at all. The dichotomy of millions losing their jobs and a surging stock market has been astonishing. But right now, the key word is "expectations". So we'll see.

Just proves how massive government spending benefits big corporations, while doing little for small business.

The politicians know where their bread is buttered.

Yet another signal of a dying empire.

Yep. We allow money to control our political system, and that's exactly what it's doing.

we're allowing $$$ to manipulate everything Mac
including Doc fucko's vaccine ,the pharmacabal's piece of the pie, the police state's new jackboots ,and did i hear Congress got a raise in all of this???

~S~

Capitalism is changing before our very eyes. The most important element of the capitalist system is no longer the consumer, it's the Federal fucking Reserve.

Not the way this is supposed to work. Something is broken.

It won’t continue to work this way for long.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

It has amazed me the stock market has not been tanking every single day.
Appears the market has been able to differentiate between a temporary pandemic, and a true economic collapse.

It still defies logic. The market appears to still be expecting a V-shaped recovery, and such a thing is difficult to imagine as this drags on. Plus, this isn't isolated, it's global.

One thing that does explain it is the unevenness of the market - there are obviously sectors (tech, most of all) that are being far less effected by the lockdown, and they're leading the way.

Pretty amazing to watch.

At best, the recovery will be more of a "U" shaped one.

 

[Mac1958]

It has amazed me the stock market has not been tanking every single day.
Appears the market has been able to differentiate between a temporary pandemic, and a true economic collapse.

It still defies logic. The market appears to still be expecting a V-shaped recovery, and such a thing is difficult to imagine as this drags on. Plus, this isn't isolated, it's global.

One thing that does explain it is the unevenness of the market - there are obviously sectors (tech, most of all) that are being far less effected by the lockdown, and they're leading the way.

Pretty amazing to watch.

At best, the recovery will be more of a "U" shaped one.

Starting to look that way.

 

[rightwinger]

Another Trump record.

Trump has the most unemployment in 80 years, more than Obama ,nobody is better....gives him something to brag about

 

[rightwinger]

It has amazed me the stock market has not been tanking every single day.
Appears the market has been able to differentiate between a temporary pandemic, and a true economic collapse.

I don’t see this as temporary.

We will not ring a bell and have everything return to normal. Many businesses will not return. Social distancing will force many to operate at limited capacity. People are wary of crowds and crowds mean profits.
We still don’t have a vaccine and may not have one till next year. We can’t return to “normal” until we do
Our economic machine will remain in low gear for some time

I remember when Obama said the same thing......that jobs wouldn't return......but they did anyway....then he took credit for their return......then he unleashed his biggest attack on the American economy....the Wuhan Flu.....and the Media Pandemic.

I suggest the solution to all of this is go down to CNN and burn the place to the ground.

View attachment 333635

Obama was correct
Coal jobs did not return. It was Trump who promised to bring them back.....he lied

The US has had the worst reaction to the TRUMPvirus in the world. Gives something for Trump to brag about

 

[JoeB131]

There's a certain perversity in watching markets in the green when the unemployment rate has exploded at a historic rate, no?

Everything the bloodsuckers on Wall Street do is Perverse.

 

[sparky]

For the last few weeks we've shifted from the generalized panic following the onset of the pandemic to the "expectations game". Going forward, markets, business behaviors and consumer sentiment won't be based as much on raw data as they will be by how the data compares to "expectations".

So who is in charge of establishing these "expectations"? Well, that's a great question. First, it's almost irrelevant, since the expectations are taken very seriously by markets. But it's generally a rough average of reports by analysts at a few of the larger banks, analytical firms, investment companies and others.

So, the "expectations" of today's upcoming report is that the economy lost about 22 million jobs and the unemployment rate is at about 16%. So if the actual data -- even though it will be adjusted later -- is below those numbers, markets will love it. If the actual data is worse, not so much.

This is a moment in history at which the stock market and the economy are so decoupled that they don't resemble each other at all. The dichotomy of millions losing their jobs and a surging stock market has been astonishing. But right now, the key word is "expectations". So we'll see.

Just proves how massive government spending benefits big corporations, while doing little for small business.

The politicians know where their bread is buttered.

Yet another signal of a dying empire.

Yep. We allow money to control our political system, and that's exactly what it's doing.

we're allowing $$$ to manipulate everything Mac
including Doc fucko's vaccine ,the pharmacabal's piece of the pie, the police state's new jackboots ,and did i hear Congress got a raise in all of this???

~S~

Capitalism is changing before our very eyes. The most important element of the capitalist system is no longer the consumer, it's the Federal fucking Reserve.

Not the way this is supposed to work. Something is broken.

It won’t continue to work this way for long.

I would agree, and further the partisan blame game escalate as proof

~S~

 

[sparky]

There's a certain perversity in watching markets in the green when the unemployment rate has exploded at a historic rate, no?

Everything the bloodsuckers on Wall Street do is Perverse.

i'm almost jealous

~S~

 

[Tijn Von Ingersleben]

Our economy is screwed and the politicians are completely to blame.

There is hope! After the 1918 pandemic the roaring twenties followed. All these people under self quarintine will have a shit load of pent up energy to expend and there is a great amount of work not being done right now because people are not at work. Some of this work will have to be caught up on. I am not going to pretend to have a crystle ball but not all indicators are negative. Lets have a little hope here and strive to over come this shit in the future.

Bro...I appreciate your positivity.

 

[Tijn Von Ingersleben]

Our economy is screwed and the politicians are completely to blame.

Some might suggest that it is rather those who put the politicians where they are who are to blame. Who voted these people in and then maintained them in place?

Extremely valid response! Bravo sir.