Nate Silver: GOP Favorite to Win 9 Senate seats currently held by Dems

[Hoosier4Liberty]

Early Senate Polls Have Plenty to Tell Us About November | FiveThirtyEight


With approval ratings for Obama factored in, Republicans are now favorites to win in Kentucky, Georgia, as well as pick up seats in Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.

This model is significantly more generous to the GOP than my own, despite many liberals chastising me for "counting my chickens before they hatch". Well, Nate Silver's blog actually predicts a BIGGER GOP win than I do.

EDIT: As a clarification, though this was written by someone other than Nate Silver, all the writing on 538 is ultimately directed by Nate Silver as he is the head of the operation.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Early Senate Polls Have Plenty to Tell Us About November | FiveThirtyEight


With approval ratings for Obama factored in, Republicans are now favorites to win in Kentucky, Georgia, as well as pick up seats in Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.

This model is significantly more generous to the GOP than my own, despite many liberals chastising me for "counting my chickens before they hatch". Well, Nate Silver's blog actually predicts a BIGGER GOP win than I do.

I tend to agree with Silver here. Of course a lot can happen between now and November, but frankly, I see an ass whooping of monumental proportions. I see a veto proof majority for the republicans coming. When they convene in January, they will immediately defund Obamacare and get on with the job of welcoming business BACK to America.

Barry will then sit in his office and twiddle his thumbs. Or take extended vacations. Or both.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Those reactionary right wingers are in for a big big win

Sent from smartphone using my wits and Taptalk

 

[TheOldSchool]

Republicans are now favorites to win in Kentucky, Georgia, as well as pick up seats in Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.

That's a lot of shitty states you just named

Except Colorado. Pass the dutchie

 

[francoHFW]

No more phony debt crises means there's a good chance of recovery, and the truth is getting out about O-care, so things may change. Veto proof won't happen at any rate...another 2 years of disfunction under those circumstances are alright...but stupid.

 

[Nyvin]

Quote from the OP's link:

Overall, this simple model puts Democratic losses in the Senate at 6.8 seats, just off the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast of 5.8 seats, which takes into account other factors including fundraising totals and candidate ideology.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Nate Silver was dead on in 2012.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Republicans are now favorites to win in Kentucky, Georgia, as well as pick up seats in Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.

That's a lot of shitty states you just named

Except Colorado. Pass the dutchie

A lot of those states haven't even had their primaries.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Nate Silver was dead on in 2012.

So was I.

 

[jillian]

Early Senate Polls Have Plenty to Tell Us About November | FiveThirtyEight


With approval ratings for Obama factored in, Republicans are now favorites to win in Kentucky, Georgia, as well as pick up seats in Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.

This model is significantly more generous to the GOP than my own, despite many liberals chastising me for "counting my chickens before they hatch". Well, Nate Silver's blog actually predicts a BIGGER GOP win than I do.

did you even bother reading the article?

because nate sure didn't say what you're saying.

 

[JakeStarkey]

52-53 most likely

 

[Nyvin]

52-53 most likely

yes.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Provided that the far right doesn't blow a possible majority again, as it did in 2010 and 2012

 

[william the wie]

The criticisms of this Nate Silver call like the defenders of Obamacare have forgotten one thing: all politics is local. When Ocare becomes state optional it will not be because on average it is a bad policy in the eyes of the majority of the voters but because it is based on zipcode, which is about as local as you can get.

Likewise all of these statewide elections are going to be based on state politics. Obama figures in only in so far as his policies adversely affects that state as with his policies on Keystone and lack of such in regards to the BP oil spill.

 

[Antares]

The Left LOVES Nate Silver until he predicts something they don't like .

 

[Nyvin]

The Left LOVES Nate Silver until he predicts something they don't like .

I agree with what Nate Silver is saying. I don't agree with what HoosierLiberty is saying

 

[jillian]

The Left LOVES Nate Silver until he predicts something they don't like .

i have huge respect for nate silver.

it's the misrepresentation by the o/p that i have zero respect for since he misrepresented the contents of his own link.

capisce?

 

[Zander]

Nate Silver! boy genius!!

PS- he didn't write the linked article in the OP......

 

[RandallFlagg]

Republicans are now favorites to win in Kentucky, Georgia, as well as pick up seats in Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.

That's a lot of shitty states you just named

Except Colorado. Pass the dutchie

Shitty states, huh? Tell that to the folks who live there (like me- I live in Montana). Been to Denver many times. One of the shittiest states I have ever been in. Ever drive on their roads?

Your problem? You are a smug progressive Nazi.

 

[JakeStarkey]

You are a smug progressive Nazi.

Learn to talk in reality.