Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[elvis]

Romney wins big. It won't be that close. You heard it here first.

I can't stand you. But I will give you double rep (positive) if he wins.

 

[paulitician]

Romney wins big. It won't be that close. You heard it here first.

I can't stand you. But I will give you double rep (positive) if he wins.

Deal.

 

[expatriate]

Making a mnoney bet is certainly dumber than making a loser leaves bet.

I realize that asshole twats like expat have no principles.

If he made the same bet I had made and lost the bet, he WOULD simply come back under a different username.

and I won't.

There's one key difference.

If I made a money wager with a pindick cocksmoker like him, he's absolutely welch.

My offer stands, ya pindick. I know you will avoid it. It's what pussies like you do.

all hot air and nothing to back it up... MY offer stands. Your offer is a girl's bet and a dodge because you know that you can and will come back under a new names when Obama wins.

I promise to post here win or lose as expatriate, and if you bet me, and Obama does lose, I will most assuredly pay you and provide proof to anyone who cares to see it. Now... do you actually own a set of nuts, or are you really just a flaming gasbag?

 

[Liability]

Making a mnoney bet is certainly dumber than making a loser leaves bet.

I realize that asshole twats like expat have no principles.

If he made the same bet I had made and lost the bet, he WOULD simply come back under a different username.

and I won't.

There's one key difference.

If I made a money wager with a pindick cocksmoker like him, he's absolutely welch.

My offer stands, ya pindick. I know you will avoid it. It's what pussies like you do.

all hot air and nothing to back it up... MY offer stands. Your offer is a girl's bet and a dodge because you know that you can and will come back under a new names when Obama wins.

I promise to post here win or lose as expatriate, and if you bet me, and Obama does lose, I will most assuredly pay you and provide proof to anyone who cares to see it. Now... do you actually own a set of nuts, or are you really just a flaming gasbag?

Face it. You now stand exposed as the total bitch you are.

And when Mitt wins, you will also look and feel even dumber than the pussy you have shown yourself to be already.

It certainly sucks to be you, expat.

 

[Dr.House]

12 weeks with An avatar of arts choice of you lose?

Complete control of Avy/Sig/Custom title/Location...

I'm not worried... He should be, but he's either blind or stupid...

The hardest part will be coming up with 12 individual themes for him...lol

You're that confident Romney is gonna win tomorrow?

Very...

Here's the reasons:

* Romney WAY up in independents - double digits up... Even with the D oversampling...

* Early vote numbers are down in key counties in most swing states... EV carried OH for the empty chair in 2008...

* Have you seen the crowd sizes at the Romney rallies compared to the 0bama ones?

* Turnout... No matter what they pretend, the excitement for Barry just isn't there... The base will always swoon over their 0ssiah, but ind and crossover R just ain't happening this time... Add in blue dogs in coal country and it's game over...


I'm quite confident...

 

[Zander]

12 it is.....

You are one of the dumbest libroids here... Kudos on that honor...

12 weeks with An avatar of arts choice of you lose?

12 weeks to be used at the winner's discretion of full sig and avatar control.

Typical liberal piece of shit. You already bet your sig line.....http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...iation-to-repeal-obamacare-7.html#post5538889

 

[expatriate]

Making a mnoney bet is certainly dumber than making a loser leaves bet.

I realize that asshole twats like expat have no principles.

If he made the same bet I had made and lost the bet, he WOULD simply come back under a different username.

and I won't.

There's one key difference.

If I made a money wager with a pindick cocksmoker like him, he's absolutely welch.

My offer stands, ya pindick. I know you will avoid it. It's what pussies like you do.

all hot air and nothing to back it up... MY offer stands. Your offer is a girl's bet and a dodge because you know that you can and will come back under a new names when Obama wins.

I promise to post here win or lose as expatriate, and if you bet me, and Obama does lose, I will most assuredly pay you and provide proof to anyone who cares to see it. Now... do you actually own a set of nuts, or are you really just a flaming gasbag?

Face it. You now stand exposed as the total bitch you are.

And when Mitt wins, you will also look and feel even dumber than the pussy you have shown yourself to be already.

It certainly sucks to be you, expat.

more hot air.... more running away from a real wager. just like a nutless girlieman.

and if you only KNEW how much it DIDN'T suck being me....

 

[Dr.House]

12 weeks with An avatar of arts choice of you lose?

12 weeks to be used at the winner's discretion of full sig and avatar control.

Typical liberal piece of shit. You already bet your sig line.....http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...iation-to-repeal-obamacare-7.html#post5538889

I'll coordinate with you so that the weeks I choose don't overlap with yours...

 

[Article 15]

12 weeks with An avatar of arts choice of you lose?

12 weeks to be used at the winner's discretion of full sig and avatar control.

Typical liberal piece of shit. You already bet your sig line.....http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...iation-to-repeal-obamacare-7.html#post5538889

So? I have multiple bets on the election. In the slim chance I lose I will be here to honor each bet.

If to want something to whine about go talk to the people who have multiple loser leaves town bets.

 

[Toro]

Is there an election bets compilation thread?

 

[elvis]

Article will honor the bets. I know him. And he won't Dave.

 

[Toro]

Anyone who wants to make a monetary bet can do so on Intrade. Just tell us if you have.

 

[Article 15]

BTW thx for reminding me, Zander, I had forgotten.

 

[EriktheRed]

The latest WSJ/NBC national poll puts Obama up over Romney by the narrowest margin, 48 percent to 47 percent. But it’s the poll’s breakdown of respondents who are either undecided or still willing to consider switching that stands out. According to NBC, the 9 percent of voters who fit the bill are overwhelmingly warmer to Obama. They approve of his performance by a 48-41 margin and like him personally by a 46-29 margin, both better than his national averages. Romney, by contrast, fares much worse with a 22-46 favorability rating.

It’s a small sample size, but as long as they don’t break strongly to Romney — and those numbers seem to suggest they won’t — Obama is in good shape. Neil Newhouse, Romney’s pollster, recently predicted victory in key states like Ohio in part because Obama often polls below 50% and the remaining undecideds are likely to flock to the challenger. If that shift doesn’t come, Obama’s leads are likely to hold up.

The Obama campaign has been making the opposing case to Romney’s for months, arguing that the available data on undecided voters suggests they’re less friendly towards Romney even if they’re aren’t fans of Obama. Based on their current polling, campaign officials are expecting something resembling a 50-50 split.

Looking at the latest numbers, there’s little indication that undecideds are turning to Romney this week and at least some signs that point the other way. Pew’s final election poll used a regression model to game out where the remaining undecideds were headed based on their demographics, ideological leanings, and feelings towards the candidates. The result was an even split: Obama led 48-45 without the model, 50-47 with it.

Polls: Undecided Voters Aren’t Breaking To Romney En Masse | TPM2012

 

[konradv]

Kind of debunks the notion by some on the board that Obama knows he's losing!

Nate Silver: Obama Has 86.3 Percent Chance of Winning Election | Alternet

 

[candycorn]

Kind of debunks the notion by some on the board that Obama knows he's losing!

Nate Silver: Obama Has 86.3 Percent Chance of Winning Election | Alternet

Supposedly he got every state right except one last time around so this is a good sign for the President.

 

[EriktheRed]

2. It’s the job of any candidate losing in the polls to pretend that there’s a good chance the polls are wrong, as the Romney campaign is doing. All losing campaigns do this. They would be irresponsible not to. That’s especially true for presidential campaigns; if they admit that they’re losing, it’s possible that they could hurt the rest of the ticket. But all losing campaigns will, and should, talk up their chances until the bitter end.

3. Some of this spin has been directed at poll-based predictors and polling aggregators, such as Nate Silver. It’s silly. The problem for Mitt Romney is the polls, not the way people are manipulating them.

A quick and easy guide to the polling wars

 

[konradv]

Why post to this thread? Nate Silver has upped the odds to 86.3%. Like Romney, this thread is old news.

 

[Zander]

Why post to this thread? Nate Silver has upped the odds to 86.3%. Like Romney, this thread is old news.

....he's upped it to 115% now. It's in the bag!

 

[Cowman]

A little something to think about in regards to this subject it's a two person race so no matter if it's Nate Sliver, Rasmussen, Gallup, FOX, CNN, myself or anyone else on this board we all have a 50/50 chance of getting it right.

Two person race doesn't make it a 50/50 chance of a candidate winning when you factor in all the variables. I don't think you know how odds are.

If it was just a two people, where opinions weren't yet decided, the country wasn't divided, and everything was just equal throughout the campaign... then it'd be 50/50.

Right now it's about 85/15 in Obama's favor. Rick Romney has the odds stacked heavily against him.

According to your dreamboat Nate, only if the popular vote is D+1... If it's R+1 then it's a 30% chance Barry wins... Natey Boy adjusted his prediction today....

How fucking retarded are you? He hasn't changed his prediction at all. His prediction is all formulaic and it does the work for him. The reason it's 85% in favor of Obama has been because of the predicted 1% + or so lead Obama will have over Romney.

He's saying that if those predictions are wrong, and the popular vote ends up being 1% or so in Romney's favor, nearly the opposite would be true.

How FUCKING dense are you dude? I can't tell if you're dense, or you're actually being intellectually dishonest.