Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[Statistikhengst]

Nate Silver Boy Genius!! now has Obama at 75% chance of winning!!! He can't lose!! He's a LOCK!!!
Woohoo!! FORWARD!! OBEY!!!


Reality? - Nate Silver's career is over. I hope he was amply compensated....

LOL, dummy.

And you know, Zander is now saying that about Clinton...... that she's a lock!

Looks like Zander may be on to something!

 

[Statistikhengst]

Why did I never visit this thread before? This is gonna be fun!!!

 

[candycorn]

Explains why they are acting a little nuttier...

This is what happens when you nominate a horrible candidate and base your entire campaign on lies.

But Obama won in 2008.

The economy sucks. Foreign policy sucks. If the press covered the deaths of US troops in Afghanistan under Obama like they did in Iraq under Bush people would be screaming.
Nate Silver? Who the fuck is he? WHo gives a shit? Other sources put OBama's chance at nil.
As the economy deteriorates Obama's chances deteriorate with it.

Well, pee wee...what happened?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

I can't wait till Nate Sivler's career is over. Fortunately, I don't have to wait long.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Bob Dylan sobered up enough to predict obama in a landslide.

Bob Dylan predicts Obama 'in a landslide' - Yahoo! News

332-206 is indeed a landslide!!!

Good job, Bob Dylan!

 

[Statistikhengst]

Oversampling Dems is a polite way of counting the non-living, the most dependable Dem voting bloc

You are an idiot.

This is not a poll, it is a confidence interval (PROBABILITY) based off of all of the state polls..

Which are conducted by various right/left/un biased groups, NOT Nate Silver himself.

And the polls (mostly left wing) all seem to have a problem with the over-sampling of Dims.

Assessing their conclusions as a valid predictor of the eventual outcome of actual voting in any poll-sampled state REQUIRES that one also make the assumption that the voter turnout is going to mirror the sample in the polling.

Yeah. That's laughable.

And it follows that all Nate is doing is basing some theoretical conclusion (an alleged statistical probability) on dubious data. GiGo. Nate seems not to grasp that. Evidently, neither do you.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

nate's numbers seem to match the realclearpolitics average.

can both nate and rcp's poll of poll's be wrong?

and only the outliers at rasmussen and gallup be correct?

that is the question of the day.

if you're a stats' geek.

Nate is a perfect, living example of "confirmation bias"......I have a feeling we won't be hearing about him after today!

Best of luck!

Oh, yes!!!!!

 

[Statistikhengst]

On his blog, Silver has 10-15 polls taken on Monday showing that almost all of them have moved towards Obama over the past few days based on the difference between each poll and their last poll.

3 reason Nate is full of shit

1) Independents will decide this election. In the final CNN poll of the campaign, Romney crushes Obama by 22 points among Independents. In every poll leading up to this election Mitt is WAY ahead with Independents. But this time it's different?

2) The Economy. It sucks. But this time is different?

3) Voter enthusiasm. Think 2010 midterms. Does anyone really think the GOP is going to stay home today? The Tea Party is dead? This time it's different?

Yeah!! Yeah!!! YEAHHHHH!!!

Oh, wait...

 

[Statistikhengst]

I believe today is going to be a bloodbath for Obama. He will lose Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Romney might pick off Michigan and Minnesota to boot!

The Lame-stream media and pollsters already have their spin sheets ready to explain why they were so wrong.........yet still right!!

 

[Statistikhengst]

So can we figure out after this is all over just how precise Nate Silver predicted this election?

Because it'll be a total cockslap to the right.

"cockslap"?

OY!!!

 

[Statistikhengst]

The Romney "Landslide" That Wasn't | Blog | Media Matters for America





• Dick Morris: "Prediction: Romney 325, Obama 213"
• Glenn Beck: "321-217 victory for Romney in the electoral college."
• Rush Limbaugh: "Everything -- Except the Polls -- Points to a Romney Landslide"
• Michael Barone: "Romney Beats Obama, Handily"
• George Will: Romney 321, Obama 217
• Newsmax: "Expect a Mitt Romney Landslide"
• Larry Kudlow: "I am now predicting a 330 vote electoral landslide."


It didn't work out that way.

And again, this wasn't simply a case of partisans rooting for their side and letting that enthusiasm color their analysis. What was so unusual was there was no polling data to support the idea of a Romney Landslide. None. Zero. It did not exist. Instead, this was a school of conservative pundits incapable of imaging the president being re-elected, and incapable of imaging Obama not losing in a humiliating electoral rout.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Yes. You are missing the fact that EVERY other pollster got it grossly wrong and this guy was almost perfect.

Rassmusen and it's ilk should go out of business. They are either liars or stupid. Anyone who trusts them in the future is a damned fool.

Thanks and fair enough but that is my question -- did he get it perfect as several have said here and several in the media have said or - as you say and I agree -- almost perfect (which i did too - i made apick on florida but for romney so that almost surely will prove wrong). THAT is the question. And there is a big difference between perfect and almost perfect (which is just another way for saying imperfect).

Although the copmarison to the pollsters is apples to oranges and silver would be the first one to tell you he is not a pollster. My guess is that he probably would even say that a pollster who said it was +1 romney (as I think rassmussen did) with a 3.5 MOE didnt get it wrong (assuming obama ended up winnig within the MOE as i think he did for most polls)

Lets just get a few terms down Nate Silver, Pollster, and Real Clear aren't pollsters. They construct prediction models using many polls as data. Both Nate and Pollster, and a handful of lesser known analysts correctly predicted 51 out of 51 results. Than you had the analysts like Real Clear Politics who miscalled Florida. On the other extreme, you had unskewedpolls and analysts like Dick Morris and Karl Rove becoming a complete joke in their predictions.

Yes, Rassmussen and Gallup were among the worst poll organizations this go around. I can't say why Rassmussen was so terrible, but Gallup totally screwed up their LV algorithm, predicting that white turnout would be 78%, when it turned out to be 72%. Gallup also predicted that Republican turnout would exceed Democrats. Both of these organizations came in near the bottom of the list for accuracy.

rasmussen was horrible because they didn't survey cell phones (where a lot of people, especially younger people, now have their only phone contact; and he also decided that democrats were being oversampled even though that obviously wasn't the case.

Rasmussen miscalled SIX of TWELVE battleground states. A tie is automatically a miscall:

Ohio
Virginia
Florida
Iowa
Wisconsin
Colorado

But, Rasmussen nailed the margin in Pennsylvania, for Obama.

 

[Statistikhengst]

It's fun watching a dying snake writhe on the ground.

It is...

Please be here wednesday...

We've all been here. Where are you?

3 Wednesdays have gone by now

You can be sooo cruel....

I love it.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Well, that was fun!!!

Who is this liability idiot, anyway???

 

[AceRothstein]

Why did I never visit this thread before? This is gonna be fun!!!

I believe this thread owns the record for most amount of stupid per post. And there are a lot of posts.

 

[AceRothstein]

Well, that was fun!!!

Who is this liability idiot, anyway???

liability is now IlarMeilyr. He drank the unskewed polls kool-aid, a whole lot of it.

 

[NLT]

What happened to the Author of this thread? Oh yea he ran off after the last mid term elections.

 

[AceRothstein]

What happened to the Author of this thread? Oh yea he ran off after the last mid term elections.

He stopped posting well before then. He had one post in April after no posts before that since last January.

 

[Dot Com]

Bob Dylan sobered up enough to predict obama in a landslide.

Bob Dylan predicts Obama 'in a landslide' - Yahoo! News

332-206 is indeed a landslide!!!

Good job, Bob Dylan!

the rw cat lady you quoted is now Tipsycatlover I believe. Just as hateful & averse to using sources as are 96% of eXtreme Righties here it seems.

 

[jillian]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

nate's numbers seem to match the realclearpolitics average.

can both nate and rcp's poll of poll's be wrong?

and only the outliers at rasmussen and gallup be correct?

that is the question of the day.

if you're a stats' geek.

Nate is a perfect, living example of "confirmation bias"......I have a feeling we won't be hearing about him after today!

Best of luck!

yeah, it's that whole fact-based reality thing.