Mac1958
Diamond Member
- Dec 8, 2011
- 117,567
- 113,736
It's not going to cut it for anyone who has a decent understanding of the nature of markets, how they react to data and expectations, and what that reaction ultimately does to the macro economy. Equity markets, fixed income markets, derivatives markets, money markets, exchange markets. This is pretty fundamental stuff.Isn't going to "cut it" for whom?Regardless of the definition of the term, bouncing around 2.6% to 2.8% just isn't going to cut it.It's all about wage growth now. We need to get above 3% and stay there a while.
There was massive, historic slack in the economy, and that's the figure that will tell us how much slack remains.
What "slack" are you referring to?
Labor participation?
idle capital?
IMHO If you're referring to the labor market then accelerating wage growth won't tell you much about "slack" since it will be an indication of the competition for available (and marketable) labor, not the pool of structurally unemployed workers. Higher wages might entice skilled workers to come off the bench (e.g. retirees to come back into the job market) but it doesn't help those whose skills don't match what employers want. It's also likely to drive immigration for skilled workers or more specifically for employers to lobby the Washington Crime Syndicate to raise immigration caps.
Which markets?Although there are a lot of positive signs, markets aren't going to wait on strong wage growth forever.
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I know that partisan Trump supporters will justify saying they're satisfied with pretty much any number, but those of us who have to take this stuff seriously have to look a little deeper and more honestly.
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