Obama willing to go "more than half-way" on Florida and Michigan

[Jon]

A lot of them have been saying they won't vote at all. In swing States that could kill the Dems and throw the election to the GOP.

I'd rather they didn't vote at all than for them to vote for McCain. More than 50% of Clinton voters (myself included) have said they would vote McCain if Obama were the nominee, in some states.

Which do you think is more likely to hurt the Democratic party?

Plus, the swing states don't have large populations of blacks. Southern states like Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama do. Do you honestly see those states voting Obama in the general anyway?

 

[Steerpike]

You aren't a typical Dem then. I wouldn't say all of Obama's supporters, but most of them.

I'm not a Dem but an Independent. But I know some other independents who feel likewise. Hell, I even know a Republican who SAYS he is going to vote for Obama, but he'd never vote for Hillary.

I don't know how prevalent my view is, however.

 

[ReillyT]

You're right, so realistically, McCain's lead over Obama could increase, or Obama could jump ahead, or Clinton could increase her lead over McCain, or McCain could jump ahead.

But we don't know what could happen, so isn't it smarter to go with the safer bet? If Clinton's already ahead, isn't it more likely that she's got a better chance to increase or maintain her lead than it is for Obama to make up an approximately 9% deficit?

Plus, there's also the idea that a lot of people say McCain over Clinton in that election just because they assume she's not going to win anyway.

You are right. We don't know what would happen. There are plenty of reasons to think that one candidate or the other would do better in the general election. I don't see anything compelling on either side. Couple this with the fact that Obama is winning by the objective metrics, and I see no reason that Obama supporters should jump ship.

 

[Ravi]

Many of us aren't convinced that Clinton is the stronger candidate. However, before you start suggesting that Obama supporters aren't interested in winning, you should ask yourself who here has considered not voting if their candidate is not the nominee.

Uh..huh. Oh yes I did just did that. Snap! Can you take it?!

That's true, Reilly, but I'm not the typical Dem either.

 

[Steerpike]

I'd rather they didn't vote at all than for them to vote for McCain. More than 50% of Clinton voters have said they would vote McCain if Obama were the nominee, in some states.

Which do you think is more likely to hurt the Democratic party?

Plus, the swing states don't have large populations of blacks. Southern states like Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama do. Do you honestly see those states voting Obama in the general anyway?

Don't get me wrong, I think Hillary is the strongest candidate.

Swing States like Missouri have enough of a black population that it can change the election.

The mid terms in 2006 gave the Senate to the Dems by what, a couple thousand votes total? Less?

It doesn't take many people in some key states where the election is going to be close anyway.

 

[Jon]

Don't get me wrong, I think Hillary is the strongest candidate.

Swing States like Missouri have enough of a black population that it can change the election.

The mid terms in 2006 gave the Senate to the Dems by what, a couple thousand votes total? Less?

It doesn't take many people in some key states where the election is going to be close anyway.

A state as rural as Missouri (excluding areas like Springfield and St. Louis) is going to be competitive even without the black vote. Clinton has a huge following in southern Missouri, which is basically the same demographic as most of Arkansas.

 

[ReillyT]

That's true, Reilly, but I'm not the typical Dem either.

I think it is probable that both Obama supporters and Clinton supporters will end up voting for the other democratic candidate should they win. I am not terribly concerned about it at this point. However, the sooner this wraps up and the party divisions can be breached, the better.

 

[Jon]

You are right. We don't know what would happen. There are plenty of reasons to think that one candidate or the other would do better in the general election. I don't see anything compelling on either side.

Look at it statistically. What is more likely to happen? Is Obama more likely to close a 9 point gap, or is Clinton more likely to maintain a 6 point lead?

 

[Jon]

I think it is probable that both Obama supporters and Clinton supporters will end up voting for the other democratic candidate should they win. I am not terribly concerned about it at this point. However, the sooner this wraps up and the party divisions can be breached, the better.

Polls suggest otherwise. A little under 40% of Obama supporters said they would vote McCain over Clinton, while more than 50% of Clinton supporters said they'd vote Clinton over McCain.

Obama is a true liberal. Clinton is a moderate leaning liberal. McCain is a moderate leaning conservative.

It makes sense that more Clinton supporters would be in favor of McCain than Obama supporters.

 

[ReillyT]

Look at it statistically. What is more likely to happen? Is Obama more likely to close a 9 point gap, or is Clinton more likely to maintain a 6 point lead?

It is the primary season, I don't know - and not just with Florida. I also don't know about many of the other states. As Steerpike noted, these things are fluid.

 

[Ravi]

I think it is probable that both Obama supporters and Clinton supporters will end up voting for the other democratic candidate should they win. I am not terribly concerned about it at this point. However, the sooner this wraps up and the party divisions can be breached, the better.

I'm not so sure. A pretty big portion of Dems in my state are swing voters and see McCain as a moderate.

 

[Steerpike]

A state as rural as Missouri (excluding areas like Springfield and St. Louis) is going to be competitive even without the black vote. Clinton has a huge following in southern Missouri, which is basically the same demographic as most of Arkansas.

Go look at the last few years of Missouri elections. Senatorial elections, Presidential in 2004. You take away a significant percentage of black voters in Missouri, the State goes to McCain. It barely went to McCaskill in the 2006 Senatorial election.

 

[ReillyT]

Polls suggest otherwise. A little under 40% of Obama supporters said they would vote McCain over Clinton, while more than 50% of Clinton supporters said they'd vote Clinton over McCain.

Obama is a true liberal. Clinton is a moderate leaning liberal. McCain is a moderate leaning conservative.

It makes sense that more Clinton supporters would be in favor of McCain than Obama supporters.

I don't put much stock in that. The candidates are roughly the same in terms of policy. Perhaps Clinton supporters are a little less magnaminous right now because it looks like she is going to lose. It is easier to say you would support the other candidate when you don't really think it is going to be an issue. I still think both sides will rally around the eventual nominee.

 

[Jon]

It is the primary season, I don't know - and not just with Florida. I also don't know about many of the other states. As Steerpike noted, these things are fluid.

I haven't seen many polls change drastically without some unforeseen event influencing them. So unless one of the candidates has a major "misspeak" between now and November, I don't see the polls changing much.

 

[ReillyT]

I'm not so sure. A pretty big portion of Dems in my state are swing voters and see McCain as a moderate.

McCain has been having an easy ride of late. All of that will change in about a month or two. Then we will begin to have a better sense of the candidates strengths against one another.

 

[Steerpike]

Look at it statistically. What is more likely to happen? Is Obama more likely to close a 9 point gap, or is Clinton more likely to maintain a 6 point lead?

Keep in mind that the error margin in these polls is usually 3% or more. If you're talking about 6 points versus 9 points then they are statistically tied unless the error margin is less than 3%.

 

[Jon]

Go look at the last few years of Missouri elections. Senatorial elections, Presidential in 2004. You take away a significant percentage of black voters in Missouri, the State goes to McCain. It barely went to McCaskill in the 2006 Senatorial election.

The thing about Missouri is...I see McCain winning it no matter who runs. He already holds significant leads over both candidates, but his lead over Obama is much larger.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...issouri_mccain_opens_lead_over_both_democrats

 

[Steerpike]

The thing about Missouri is...I see McCain winning it no matter who runs. He already holds significant leads over both candidates, but his lead over Obama is much larger.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...issouri_mccain_opens_lead_over_both_democrats

Yes, he'll probably win Missouri. But the point remains that there are other swing States, and I guarantee you the DNC is cognizant of what it could mean to lose the black vote in those places.

 

[ReillyT]

I haven't seen many polls change drastically without some unforeseen event influencing them. So unless one of the candidates has a major "misspeak" between now and November, I don't see the polls changing much.

Look at the Clinton/Obama race and see how they changed over six months. Even take a state like Missouri and look at the general election polls.

SurveyUSA had Obama beating McCain by 3 in December.
In March, McCain was beating Obama by 14.
In May, McCain's lead over Obama was back to 3.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/missouri.html

It changes pretty quickly all the time. We won't have any idea of the solidity of the support for a few months when the Democrats actually have a nominee and the general election campaigning is under way.

 

[ReillyT]

The thing about Missouri is...I see McCain winning it no matter who runs. He already holds significant leads over both candidates, but his lead over Obama is much larger.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...issouri_mccain_opens_lead_over_both_democrats

That poll is old. His lead has shrunk considerably just within the last 2 months.