Sun Devil 92
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- Apr 2, 2015
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Predicting the numbers of deaths in an out of control epidemic by Aug. is about as accurate as predicting the Dow Jones Average at end of Aug.March 24, 2020 - United States - 54,916
March 25, 2020 - United States - 68,489 - 24.7% increase
March 26, 2020 - United States - 85,594 - 24.97% increase
March 27, 2020 - United States - 104,256 - 21.8% increase
March 28, 2020 - United States - 123,776 - 18.7% increase
March 29, 2020 - United States - 142,224 - 14.9% increase
March 30, 2020 - United States - 164,266 - 15.5% increase
March 31, 2020 - United States - 188,578 - 14.8% increase
April 1, 2020 - United States - 215,300 - 14.2% increase
April 2, 2020 - United States - 245,193 - 13.9% increase
April 3, 2020 - United States - 277,475 - 13.2% increase
April 4, 2020 - United States - 311,635 - 12.3% increase
April 5, 2020 - United States - 336,830 - 8.1% increase
April 6, 2020 - United States - 367,629 - 9.1% increase
April 7, 2020 - United States - 400,540 - 9.0% increase
April 8, 2020 - United States - 435,160 - 8.6% increase
April 9, 2020 - United States - 468,895 - 7.8% increase
April 10, 2020 - United States - 502,876 - 7.3% increase
If you show the actual differential, you'll see the actual number staying pretty steady. As a percentage of the whole (and keep in mind these are total cases.....we have about 45,000 resolved cases) they will decrease because the whole is getting larger.
View attachment 321975
At one point, before I was making the chart, you were having an increasing rate of increase per day, despite the total becoming larger every day. The nightmare situation was staying at 27% increase per day and having 100 million people infected by April 25. Now that the rate has dropped below 8%, were looking at maybe 3 million infections in a month, but that's if we stay around 8% a day. Hopefully that will be cut further.
If the prediction is for 60,000 deaths by August, then at the current death rate, that will mean about 1,560,000 confirmed infections by August. That would suggest that were about 1/3 of the way through this first wave. Of course, these are all just projections based on current numbers.
Yes.
If we have an out of control epidemic, we should be warry.
Fortunately all we are dealing with the Corona. The only issue there is the panic created by our fearless know-nothings.