OH MY!!!! Have you seen the NEW 538 numberes????

[L.K.Eder]

 

[Toro]

Oh my!

 

[Pogo]

88.6 - 11.3, that's............. what is the word............

YUUUUGE.

 

[hazlnut]

Seems it changes with every NEW WikiLeaks post!

Trump better hope those bad Russians don't hack is financials and tax docs.

 

[L.K.Eder]

 

[JimH52]

Trump..... 57.5........ Hildebeast.....42.5.......

Just a nice surprise to start your morning!

Yes, Comrade trump has a 30% chance of winning....thanks for pointing that out....

 

[JimH52]

View attachment 84239

Wow! Is that a record low for any candidate? You like "Supreme Court Justice Obama?"

 

[L.K.Eder]

i wonder where vigilante is... surely, he has not abandoned thread.

 

[Old Rocks]

Oh my!

Yes, oh my! Sad, because one of the strengths of our system is that in the general election, both candidates run on platforms that reflect real conditions in the nation. Or, at least, that is the way it used to be. And, often during the election, the winning candidate would look at a plank in the others platform, and say 'I wish I had said that'. And after the election would have this 'new idea', and adapt a good position from the former opponent.

Unfortunetly, what the hell can you adapt from the Donald's platform? It is not the same from day to day. And he spends far more time attacking imagined enemies than putting out a plan for this nation. We need a strong two party system with sane people in charge. We are not seeing that this election.

 

[ThoughtCrimes]

The alleged 538 site that currently shows Clinton @ 91.6% and Trump @ 8.4% is a bogus website. The tel is in the addy;
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
The #now at the end is the tel when checking the site's credentials. I appears that specific data has been manipulated within the code the properties of which can be viewed.

The actual 538 website that currently shows Clinton @ 77.7% and Trump @ 22.3% is the valid credentialed source!
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Note the missing #now at the end of the valid address!

Don't be fooled. I came across this after seeing that addy posted by Vigilante last week with Trump soundly leading by a 15 point spread that didn't fit with the actual site figures I viewed for comparison!

 

[L.K.Eder]

The alleged 538 site that currently shows Clinton @ 91.6% and Trump @ 8.4% is a bogus website. The tel is in the addy;
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
The #now at the end is the tel when checking the site's credentials. I appears that specific data has been manipulated within the code the properties of which can be viewed.

The actual 538 website that currently shows Clinton @ 77.7% and Trump @ 22.3% is the valid credentialed source!
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Note the missing #now at the end of the valid address!

Don't be fooled. I came across this after seeing that addy posted by Vigilante last week with Trump soundly leading by a 7-8 point spread that didn't fit with the actual site figures I viewed for comparison!

bullshit. the #now is one of three models presented on the same website.

"Three versions of the model

• Polls-plus: Combines polls with an economic index. Since the economic index implies that this election should be a tossup, it assumes the race will tighten somewhat.
• Polls-only: A simpler, what-you-see-is-what-you-get version of the model. It assumes current polls reflect the best forecast for November, although with a lot of uncertainty.
• Now-cast: A projection of what would happen in a hypothetical election held today. Much more aggressive than the other models."

Differences between polls-plus and polls-only

• • Polls-plus combines polls with an economic index; polls-only does not.
  • Polls-plus will include a convention bounce adjustment; polls-only will not.
  • Polls-plus starts by assuming that likely voter polls are better for Republicans; polls-only makes no such assumption. Both models revise this assumption as more data becomes available.
  • Polls-plus subtracts points from third-party candidates early in the race, while polls-only does not.
  • Both models employ a regression that is based on demographics and past voting history. But polls-only weights the regression less and places less emphasis on past voting history.
  • Polls-only accounts for more uncertainty than polls-plus.
  • Polls-plus and polls-only will tend to converge as the election approaches.
  
  Differences between polls-only and now-cast
  • The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.
  • As a result, the now-cast is very aggressive. It’s much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only; it weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line.
  • There could be some big differences around the conventions. The polls-only and polls-plus models discount polls taken just after the conventions, whereas the now-cast will work to quickly capture the convention bounce.

 

[ThoughtCrimes]

The alleged 538 site that currently shows Clinton @ 91.6% and Trump @ 8.4% is a bogus website. The tel is in the addy;
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
The #now at the end is the tel when checking the site's credentials. I appears that specific data has been manipulated within the code the properties of which can be viewed.

The actual 538 website that currently shows Clinton @ 77.7% and Trump @ 22.3% is the valid credentialed source!
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Note the missing #now at the end of the valid address!

Don't be fooled. I came across this after seeing that addy posted by Vigilante last week with Trump soundly leading by a 7-8 point spread that didn't fit with the actual site figures I viewed for comparison!

bullshit. the #now is one of three models presented on the same website.

"Three versions of the model

• Polls-plus: Combines polls with an economic index. Since the economic index implies that this election should be a tossup, it assumes the race will tighten somewhat.
• Polls-only: A simpler, what-you-see-is-what-you-get version of the model. It assumes current polls reflect the best forecast for November, although with a lot of uncertainty.
• Now-cast: A projection of what would happen in a hypothetical election held today. Much more aggressive than the other models."

Differences between polls-plus and polls-only

• • Polls-plus combines polls with an economic index; polls-only does not.
  • Polls-plus will include a convention bounce adjustment; polls-only will not.
  • Polls-plus starts by assuming that likely voter polls are better for Republicans; polls-only makes no such assumption. Both models revise this assumption as more data becomes available.
  • Polls-plus subtracts points from third-party candidates early in the race, while polls-only does not.
  • Both models employ a regression that is based on demographics and past voting history. But polls-only weights the regression less and places less emphasis on past voting history.
  • Polls-only accounts for more uncertainty than polls-plus.
  • Polls-plus and polls-only will tend to converge as the election approaches.
  
  Differences between polls-only and now-cast
  • The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.
  • As a result, the now-cast is very aggressive. It’s much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only; it weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line.
  • There could be some big differences around the conventions. The polls-only and polls-plus models discount polls taken just after the conventions, whereas the now-cast will work to quickly capture the convention bounce.

I stand corrected. I've obviously overlooked the left sidebar all this time. My bad!

 

[Dragonlady]

This is from July 24th, after the RNC and before Trump went on an a$$hat rampage.

These are today's reports:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

2016 Presidential Election Center

CNN is showing Clinton 53%, Trump 42%

And the summary of polls from Real Clear Politics shows Clinton ahead in every single poll, some by more than 10 points.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Latest Election Polls

 

[Vigilante]

Let,s see....after the DNC convention Reagan was down 17%, and Bush 1 was down 20%.......who knew?

 

[JimH52]

Let,s see....after the DNC convention Reagan was down 17%, and Bush 1 was down 20%.......who knew?

But Reagan and Bush were not demented Demagogues who had NO control of a childish temperament.

Comrade trump cannot control his tongue.

 

[Dragonlady]

Let,s see....after the DNC convention Reagan was down 17%, and Bush 1 was down 20%.......who knew?

Bush was running against Al Gore, the most boring human being on the face of the planet. Reagan ran against a Carter, who remained holed up in the White House throughout the campaign as a daily reminder of the hostages in the US Embassy in Tehran. Of course had he left the White House to campaign, he would have been pilloried as Obama was for attending a fundraiser the day after Benghazi. It would have been a no-win situation for Carter.

 

[Pogo]

Let,s see....after the DNC convention Reagan was down 17%, and Bush 1 was down 20%.......who knew?

Bush was running against Al Gore, the most boring human being on the face of the planet. Reagan ran against a Carter, who remained holed up in the White House throughout the campaign as a daily reminder of the hostages in the US Embassy in Tehran. Of course had he left the White House to campaign, he would have been pilloried as Obama was for attending a fundraiser the day after Benghazi. It would have been a no-win situation for Carter.

Actually Bush 1 would be H.W. (1988), and it's true that after the DNC convention Dukakis got a big bounce. What he leaves out is that with Republicans (Reagan) already in office that year, the challenging party (Dems) conventioned first, as Rump did this year, and the "home team" (Reps) countered later. Much like a baseball inning, you don't get a real score until both teams have their at-bats.

The OP of course wants to take the score in the middle of the inning, since that's the only place he can find the numbers about which he fantasizes. It's evidently part of that Eliminationist one-party State über Alles mentality.

 

[HappyJoy]

Long ways to go, lots of stuff can happen and hopefully Trump keeps being Trump. He's his own worst enemy and only the far, far rabid right defends him.

Anyway, things could change on a dime but right now I'm happy where the election is at though apprehensive.

 

[Toro]

Let,s see....after the DNC convention Reagan was down 17%, and Bush 1 was down 20%.......who knew?

Wrong again, Vagifail.

 

[JimH52]

Let,s see....after the DNC convention Reagan was down 17%, and Bush 1 was down 20%.......who knew?

Wrong again, Vagifail.

Pesky facts and truth always get on their way...