Omnious Sign

[MacTheKnife]

No, The Yellowstone Supervolcano Is Actually Not Overdue For An Eruption
Eric Mack

It's a favorite worry of the apocalyptically-minded: The huge supervolcano centered below Yellowstone National Park hasn't erupted in hundreds of thousands of years, so obviously it could blow at any minute, right?

"In a word, no. In two words, no way. In three words, not even close. Yellowstone doesn't work that way," writes Michael Poland, Scientist-in-Charge of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, in a new blog post for the U.S. Geological Survey.

Poland goes on to challenge the basic numbers that lots of the recent tabloid stories warning of an "overdue" eruption are based on.

"In terms of large explosions, Yellowstone has experienced three -- at 2.08, 1.3, and 0.631 million years ago. This comes out to an average of about 725,000 years between eruptions. That being the case, we still have about 100,000 years to go, but this number is based on very little data and so is basically meaningless (would you base any conclusion on the average of just two numbers?)."

But even if Yellowstone is still on schedule for its next eruption to take place in the distant future by the numbers, it's a moot point because volcanoes don't keep schedules.

The idea of being overdue for a natural disaster might come from the way we think about earthquakes, which are caused by consistently building pressure on a fault that eventually snaps.

But, as Poland points out, most volcanoes don't work the same way. They don't necessarily accumulate magma at a constant rate until an inevitable eruption occurs. Even the small eruptions of lava flows at Yellowstone have been fairly irregular over the eons - the most recent one erupted 70,000 years ago and going further back similar eruptions have been separated by hundreds of thousands of years or have come in relatively quick succession.

"This is because the Yellowstone magma reservoir system receives new magma only in discontinuous batches, causing several eruptions in a short period of time with long periods of quiet in between these episodes," Poland explains.

While the Yellowstone caldera is the subject of lots of scare-mongering, conspiracy theories and rather obvious falsehoods, there is reason for some of the confusion and concern. For example, one widely publicized 2017 study finds that we may only have a few decades warning prior to a major eruption.

There's also been lots of geyser activity at Yellowstone over the last year that breaks with the pattern of recent decades, especially a new period of heightened activity for Steamboat Geyser, which is the world's tallest.

But the fact remains that none of these actual facts point to an imminent threat of eruption for the Yellowstone Supervolcano or support the notion that one is "overdue."

"Not even close," concludes Poland.
No, The Yellowstone Supervolcano Is Actually Not Overdue For An Eruption


OTOH, a supervolcano IS going to happen, sooner or later. So, maybe we need to be searching for some way to minimize the blast.

Thank you. I've been trying to tell these people to calm down.

One person posts an article from a far right radical extremist site and all of a sudden it's the end of America.

Even if a mountain does blow, we clean up the mess and move on.

Just like we do with all natural disasters.

These chicken littles are really out of control.

They've been screaming about Yellowstone for years.

Which is irrelevant ya remember the boy who cried 'WOLF'/

 

[MacTheKnife]

The strange story of the worlds deepest hole.......................The Strange Story of the Kola Superdeep Borehole

 

[Andylusion]

So the level of lava in Yellowstone, has been consistently rising for decades, as best I understand.

There is no question that there will be an eruption in Yellowstone.

The only two questions are 'when?' and 'how bad?'.

Neither of those can be answered.

While we can make educated guesses, they would still be guesses at the very best.

Going based on history, which is limited to seeing where the layer of ash that can be traced back to Yellowstone, may seem like a good basis to go by, it's still a guess.

We could simply assume that whatever future eruption, will be equally world changing as the previous, but I don't see any reason to believe that.

The speed at which the lava is rising, is exceptionally slow.

Even so, there are examples where relatively normal sized volcanoes popped up in the middle of former super volcanoes. So we really don't know.

What we do know, is that if Yellowstone blows like a super volcano it was in the past, then there will be no point in us talking about it. Most of the entire country will be wiped out, and whatever is left, will likely starve. (except of course for the elite in government, that will convince the poor, to allow government to confiscate the food for themselves, in the name of helping the poor).

On the other hand, I would wager that an eruption affecting several states is likely.
One difference between the massive explosion of the past, and today, is that right now Yellowstone is dissipating tons of energy every single minute. Most of the largest explosions happen when the energy is contained and growing. St Helens for example, no energy escaped until half the mountain blew off.

Yellowstone, every geyser spewing super heated water into the air, is energy being released from the volcano underneath. So it is possible that this bleed off of energy, may reduce the impact of the coming eruption. We don't know.

Regardless, the dire doomsday warnings are being blown out of proportion. Will their be an eruption? Again, yes it is undeniable.

Will it happen next week? Not likely. The movement of animals is not unusual. There is currently nothing unusual going on in Yellowstone.

 

[MacTheKnife]

So the level of lava in Yellowstone, has been consistently rising for decades, as best I understand.

There is no question that there will be an eruption in Yellowstone.

The only two questions are 'when?' and 'how bad?'.

Neither of those can be answered.

While we can make educated guesses, they would still be guesses at the very best.

Going based on history, which is limited to seeing where the layer of ash that can be traced back to Yellowstone, may seem like a good basis to go by, it's still a guess.

We could simply assume that whatever future eruption, will be equally world changing as the previous, but I don't see any reason to believe that.

The speed at which the lava is rising, is exceptionally slow.

Even so, there are examples where relatively normal sized volcanoes popped up in the middle of former super volcanoes. So we really don't know.

What we do know, is that if Yellowstone blows like a super volcano it was in the past, then there will be no point in us talking about it. Most of the entire country will be wiped out, and whatever is left, will likely starve. (except of course for the elite in government, that will convince the poor, to allow government to confiscate the food for themselves, in the name of helping the poor).

On the other hand, I would wager that an eruption affecting several states is likely.
One difference between the massive explosion of the past, and today, is that right now Yellowstone is dissipating tons of energy every single minute. Most of the largest explosions happen when the energy is contained and growing. St Helens for example, no energy escaped until half the mountain blew off.

Yellowstone, every geyser spewing super heated water into the air, is energy being released from the volcano underneath. So it is possible that this bleed off of energy, may reduce the impact of the coming eruption. We don't know.

Regardless, the dire doomsday warnings are being blown out of proportion. Will their be an eruption? Again, yes it is undeniable.

Will it happen next week? Not likely. The movement of animals is not unusual. There is currently nothing unusual going on in Yellowstone.

Excellent analysis....as pointed out conditions change...and they can change very quickly...thus your conclusion is quite correct....no one really knows....all they can do is point out different scenarios...and it must be understood they are presenting the optimistic view....and such a view colors their analysis.

Also for most it is just something we have to live with...for those with the ability to pick up and leave and find a refuge in a place faraway somewhere...then they might want to play closer attention.

America has many problems...serious problems...which could be corrected if there was a political will to do so...yet we cannot even correct many of our problems if not most of them....and some of them are serious indeed....yet we are unable or unwilling to do what is required to correct solvable problems.

Not even to mention the country is so divided now and getting more divided as time goes by that we cannot even agree on what the problems are.

 

[Carl in Michigan]

Thousands of animals are leaving the Yellowstone volcano area.

The Eruption of that volcano in Yellowstone could very likely mean the end of America...and it could happen at any time and the arrogant,ignorant and Godless nation that America has become would be no more.

Yellowstone volcano is a HIGH RISK threat: What does the dire USGS warning mean?

This Is What Would Happen To The World If The Yellowstone Supervolcano Erupted Today

As a person who has actually lived through a volcano erupting a few times:

GET A GRIP.

A volcano eruption isn't going to be the end of America.

It will cause a lot of damage and people will have to take shelter but we're Americans. We can clean up the mess and move on.

You have no idea