Prediction for Nov. 2016

[Nyvin]

Right now all the data available to us shows Hillary having an advantage in the election. None of the GOP candidates are particularly good, hence why they all tie each other so often.

Polling certainly says that Hillary is leading them all.

You bet on that.
Hillary has 100% name recognitio and 45% approval. You dnt win elections with those numbers and she has nowhere to go but down.

Approval ratings only matter so much, it doesn't matter how much the deep red states hate her, it only matters that the states that vote blue like her enough. Besides, having her approval not be high is only half the battle for the GOP, you need to get a GOP candidate UP to her level or past it on top of that, so far that hasn't happened and frankly I don't see how it can.

 

[kaz]

Right now all the data available to us shows Hillary having an advantage in the election. None of the GOP candidates are particularly good, hence why they all tie each other so often.

Polling certainly says that Hillary is leading them all.

You bet on that.
Hillary has 100% name recognitio and 45% approval. You dnt win elections with those numbers and she has nowhere to go but down.

Approval ratings only matter so much, it doesn't matter how much the deep red states hate her, it only matters that the states that vote blue like her enough. Besides, having her approval not be high is only half the battle for the GOP, you need to get a GOP candidate UP to her level or past it on top of that, so far that hasn't happened and frankly I don't see how it can.

So she lost to the black guy in the empty suit no one ever heard of because of Republicans? Interesting theory. How did they manage that? Was it Operation Chaos?

 

[Nyvin]

Right now all the data available to us shows Hillary having an advantage in the election. None of the GOP candidates are particularly good, hence why they all tie each other so often.

Polling certainly says that Hillary is leading them all.

You bet on that.
Hillary has 100% name recognitio and 45% approval. You dnt win elections with those numbers and she has nowhere to go but down.

Approval ratings only matter so much, it doesn't matter how much the deep red states hate her, it only matters that the states that vote blue like her enough. Besides, having her approval not be high is only half the battle for the GOP, you need to get a GOP candidate UP to her level or past it on top of that, so far that hasn't happened and frankly I don't see how it can.

So she lost to the black guy in the empty suit no one ever heard of because of Republicans? Interesting theory. How did they manage that? Was it Operation Chaos?

No, she largely lost the primarily due to her Iraq War vote, and being outspent by Obama. It was still probably the most competitive primary since 1976, maybe ever.

 

[kaz]

Right now all the data available to us shows Hillary having an advantage in the election. None of the GOP candidates are particularly good, hence why they all tie each other so often.

Polling certainly says that Hillary is leading them all.

You bet on that.
Hillary has 100% name recognitio and 45% approval. You dnt win elections with those numbers and she has nowhere to go but down.

Approval ratings only matter so much, it doesn't matter how much the deep red states hate her, it only matters that the states that vote blue like her enough. Besides, having her approval not be high is only half the battle for the GOP, you need to get a GOP candidate UP to her level or past it on top of that, so far that hasn't happened and frankly I don't see how it can.

So she lost to the black guy in the empty suit no one ever heard of because of Republicans? Interesting theory. How did they manage that? Was it Operation Chaos?

No, she largely lost the primarily due to her Iraq War vote, and being outspent by Obama. It was still probably the most competitive primary since 1976, maybe ever.

She had it in the bag, but she's an unpleasant person and even Democrats balked

 

[RandallFlagg]

The Democratic party has devolved into a lying corrupt cesspool, maybe they need to clean house.

Yes, they need to return to the common sense party they once were. Will they? Of course not - the average IQ of an elected democrat hovers around 3. There isn't enough sense in all of them to recognize their idiocy.

 

[Wry Catcher]

You are vastly overestimating the long-term lifespan of individual political events on electoral issues. See here. You are also vastly overestimating how much change a single election will have. Filibusters and party moderates prevent nearly as much change as you are predicting.

The Republican Party will control the Senate, the H. of Rep. and the White House on Jan 20, 2017.

I'm curious, if someone offered to bet you $25 on whether your quoted statement will be true, would you take it?

No, but not because I doubt we, as a nation, are in transition - I simply don't bet for something I abhor.

I believe our nation was better off when the Senate and H. of Rep. had opposing and honorable majorities, each understanding compromise was a virtue; it has been a long time since Gingrich redefined compromise as a deadly sin; any member of his party who dared agree with the opposition was doomed.

I can recall when the White House needed members of both parties and honest debate was respected by most. Today we have jerks calling the POTUS - in front of the world a liar, and jerks on message board calling other members that and worse, for simply offering an opinion.

I would agree with your comment about my overestimating the long-term impact of one party in control of the WH, the Senate, The H. of Rep and a majority on the Supreme Court - however the rhetoric from the clown car and the jerks on this message board suggest extremism is here to stay for a generation or more.

 

[The Rabbi]

You are vastly overestimating the long-term lifespan of individual political events on electoral issues. See here. You are also vastly overestimating how much change a single election will have. Filibusters and party moderates prevent nearly as much change as you are predicting.

The Republican Party will control the Senate, the H. of Rep. and the White House on Jan 20, 2017.

I'm curious, if someone offered to bet you $25 on whether your quoted statement will be true, would you take it?

No, but not because I doubt we, as a nation, are in transition - I simply don't bet for something I abhor.

I believe our nation was better off when the Senate and H. of Rep. had opposing and honorable majorities, each understanding compromise was a virtue; it has been a long time since Gingrich redefined compromise as a deadly sin; any member of his party who dared agree with the opposition was doomed.

I can recall when the White House needed members of both parties and honest debate was respected by most. Today we have jerks calling the POTUS - in front of the world a liar, and jerks on message board calling other members that and worse, for simply offering an opinion.

I would agree with your comment about my overestimating the long-term impact of one party in control of the WH, the Senate, The H. of Rep and a majority on the Supreme Court - however the rhetoric from the clown car and the jerks on this message board suggest extremism is here to stay for a generation or more.

Except Obama is a liar. That's been proven over and over.
I remember when a president respected members of the other party and didnt take everything personally.

 

[RandallFlagg]

You are vastly overestimating the long-term lifespan of individual political events on electoral issues. See here. You are also vastly overestimating how much change a single election will have. Filibusters and party moderates prevent nearly as much change as you are predicting.

The Republican Party will control the Senate, the H. of Rep. and the White House on Jan 20, 2017.

I'm curious, if someone offered to bet you $25 on whether your quoted statement will be true, would you take it?

No, but not because I doubt we, as a nation, are in transition - I simply don't bet for something I abhor.

I believe our nation was better off when the Senate and H. of Rep. had opposing and honorable majorities, each understanding compromise was a virtue; it has been a long time since Gingrich redefined compromise as a deadly sin; any member of his party who dared agree with the opposition was doomed.

I can recall when the White House needed members of both parties and honest debate was respected by most. Today we have jerks calling the POTUS - in front of the world a liar, and jerks on message board calling other members that and worse, for simply offering an opinion.

I would agree with your comment about my overestimating the long-term impact of one party in control of the WH, the Senate, The H. of Rep and a majority on the Supreme Court - however the rhetoric from the clown car and the jerks on this message board suggest extremism is here to stay for a generation or more.

Except Obama is a liar. That's been proven over and over.
I remember when a president respected members of the other party and didnt take everything personally.

Indeed. I remember when Reagan grabbed both leaders of the parties and sat their asses down in the White House - not allowing them to leave until they had meaningful conversations. Now? It's continually the "us against them" mentality - As in the ACA. Now, that there is a possibility that the law may become clouded - they are begging the right to pull them out of this conundrum.

 

[BluesLegend]

The Democratic party has devolved into a lying corrupt cesspool, maybe they need to clean house.

Yes, they need to return to the common sense party they once were. Will they? Of course not - the average IQ of an elected democrat hovers around 3. There isn't enough sense in all of them to recognize their idiocy.

The Dem's fail time and again but won't budge off their stupid ideas that's a big difference between conservatives and idiot liberals. Libs and the GOP establishment should just sit down shut the hell up and let conservatives fix the problems but that's not going to happen until they wreck the country. A conservative take over is destined to occur, eventually the dumb ass libs and GOP establishment will bankrupt the country and run for the hills.

 

[WelfareQueen]

I predict that Donald Trump will win 50 out of the 57 states, and become President. Then ISIS will disband out of fear of our newly elected leader. Then CK will sell USMB to Judicial Review.

I'll make a bet. If my predictions are wrong I will stop posting on USMB.

I predict Stat will finally come out of the closet and will begin sex reassignment surgery. He will soon be known as Fraulein Bathilde.

Oh...and Hillary wins 69 of fifty-seven states.....(votes will be counted using the metric system).

 

[Wry Catcher]

The Republican Party will control the Senate, the H. of Rep. and the White House on Jan 20, 2017. The reason is simple, mass murders have created the Great Wedge Issue, and single issue voters will not support Democratic candidates for the simple reason that they will believe the D's will take their guns.

It matters not that the Republican Party will soon have greater control of the Supreme Court, since the new President will likely have several appointments, and as a result the goal of creating an Oligarchy will be met, and America will further decline into a nation ruled by a power elite ready; an elite willing and able to remake our nation into a Plutocracy.

Consider the consequences to you and your family, when the EPA, FDA, etc. and progressive taxation has been eliminated, and replaced by unregulated, lassiez faire capitalism. When each state makes their own rules/laws, rules and laws written by and signed by members of the power elite.

Of course this exists today, but once the power transfer is complete it will last until the regime falls and those who have read history understand the fall will not be easy, short or non violent.

Funny how not long ago you people said the conservatives were dying off and would never be heard from again.

But I do hope you're correct in your prediction. Because that would mean we could get back to being the USA as it was designed to be. Before the rules and laws passed by the power elites and the democrats messed it up so bad. Enjoy the fall from grace. I certainly will enjoy watching you get set back 100+ years.

You're naive in assuming any benefit in a return to the USA "as it was designed to be". Of course you seem conflicted, you want to set me back 100+ years, and you hope to return to the time when the Article of Federation were the law of the land. Very odd indeed.

 

[Wry Catcher]

The Republican Party will control the Senate, the H. of Rep. and the White House on Jan 20, 2017. The reason is simple, mass murders have created the Great Wedge Issue, and single issue voters will not support Democratic candidates for the simple reason that they will believe the D's will take their guns.

It matters not that the Republican Party will soon have greater control of the Supreme Court, since the new President will likely have several appointments, and as a result the goal of creating an Oligarchy will be met, and America will further decline into a nation ruled by a power elite ready; an elite willing and able to remake our nation into a Plutocracy.

Consider the consequences to you and your family, when the EPA, FDA, etc. and progressive taxation has been eliminated, and replaced by unregulated, lassiez faire capitalism. When each state makes their own rules/laws, rules and laws written by and signed by members of the power elite.

Of course this exists today, but once the power transfer is complete it will last until the regime falls and those who have read history understand the fall will not be easy, short or non violent.

Consider the consequences? Whoa, prosperity like we havent seen since the 1890s. Technological and medical advancements that will make us even more the leading nation in the world. A standard of living that will have Swiss citizens trying to sneak across the Canadian border to live here.
Wow, for a brief minute I thought it could even happen.
But the GOP will win the Presidential election, no question.

Have you considered the recession and the Panic of 1893? Oh, it probably slipped you mind, here's a little reminder:

"The panic of 1893 was a serious economic depression in the United States that began in 1893. Similar to the panic of 1873, it was marked by the overbuilding and shaky financing of railroads, resulting in a series of bank failures. Compounding market overbuilding and the railroad bubble was a run on the gold supply."

Google

 

[The Rabbi]

The Republican Party will control the Senate, the H. of Rep. and the White House on Jan 20, 2017. The reason is simple, mass murders have created the Great Wedge Issue, and single issue voters will not support Democratic candidates for the simple reason that they will believe the D's will take their guns.

It matters not that the Republican Party will soon have greater control of the Supreme Court, since the new President will likely have several appointments, and as a result the goal of creating an Oligarchy will be met, and America will further decline into a nation ruled by a power elite ready; an elite willing and able to remake our nation into a Plutocracy.

Consider the consequences to you and your family, when the EPA, FDA, etc. and progressive taxation has been eliminated, and replaced by unregulated, lassiez faire capitalism. When each state makes their own rules/laws, rules and laws written by and signed by members of the power elite.

Of course this exists today, but once the power transfer is complete it will last until the regime falls and those who have read history understand the fall will not be easy, short or non violent.

Consider the consequences? Whoa, prosperity like we havent seen since the 1890s. Technological and medical advancements that will make us even more the leading nation in the world. A standard of living that will have Swiss citizens trying to sneak across the Canadian border to live here.
Wow, for a brief minute I thought it could even happen.
But the GOP will win the Presidential election, no question.

Have you considered the recession and the Panic of 1893? Oh, it probably slipped you mind, here's a little reminder:

"The panic of 1893 was a serious economic depression in the United States that began in 1893. Similar to the panic of 1873, it was marked by the overbuilding and shaky financing of railroads, resulting in a series of bank failures. Compounding market overbuilding and the railroad bubble was a run on the gold supply."

Google

Yes there is a busines cycle. Thanks for showing you understand that.
FWIW economi growth in the 1890s was off the charts.

 

[Wry Catcher]

The Republican Party will control the Senate, the H. of Rep. and the White House on Jan 20, 2017. The reason is simple, mass murders have created the Great Wedge Issue, and single issue voters will not support Democratic candidates for the simple reason that they will believe the D's will take their guns.

It matters not that the Republican Party will soon have greater control of the Supreme Court, since the new President will likely have several appointments, and as a result the goal of creating an Oligarchy will be met, and America will further decline into a nation ruled by a power elite ready; an elite willing and able to remake our nation into a Plutocracy.

Consider the consequences to you and your family, when the EPA, FDA, etc. and progressive taxation has been eliminated, and replaced by unregulated, lassiez faire capitalism. When each state makes their own rules/laws, rules and laws written by and signed by members of the power elite.

Of course this exists today, but once the power transfer is complete it will last until the regime falls and those who have read history understand the fall will not be easy, short or non violent.

Consider the consequences? Whoa, prosperity like we havent seen since the 1890s. Technological and medical advancements that will make us even more the leading nation in the world. A standard of living that will have Swiss citizens trying to sneak across the Canadian border to live here.
Wow, for a brief minute I thought it could even happen.
But the GOP will win the Presidential election, no question.

Have you considered the recession and the Panic of 1893? Oh, it probably slipped you mind, here's a little reminder:

"The panic of 1893 was a serious economic depression in the United States that began in 1893. Similar to the panic of 1873, it was marked by the overbuilding and shaky financing of railroads, resulting in a series of bank failures. Compounding market overbuilding and the railroad bubble was a run on the gold supply."

Google

Yes there is a busines cycle. Thanks for showing you understand that.
FWIW economi growth in the 1890s was off the charts.

The Gilded Age was more than a business cycle, it demonstrated the evils of lassiez faire capitalism and was the precursor for the labor strive which lasted for a generation.

That you focus on a single aspect of an age is typical, herein is a perspective which outlines the issues and events of the last quarter of the 19th Century:

Display Content Printable Version

Your are now free to cherry pick those items which support your contention and ignore those which are not so savory to your ideology. A common practice of dishonest hacks and a practice in which you are skilled.

 

[Wry Catcher]

The Republican Party will control the Senate, the H. of Rep. and the White House on Jan 20, 2017. The reason is simple, mass murders have created the Great Wedge Issue, and single issue voters will not support Democratic candidates for the simple reason that they will believe the D's will take their guns.

It matters not that the Republican Party will soon have greater control of the Supreme Court, since the new President will likely have several appointments, and as a result the goal of creating an Oligarchy will be met, and America will further decline into a nation ruled by a power elite ready; an elite willing and able to remake our nation into a Plutocracy.

Consider the consequences to you and your family, when the EPA, FDA, etc. and progressive taxation has been eliminated, and replaced by unregulated, lassiez faire capitalism. When each state makes their own rules/laws, rules and laws written by and signed by members of the power elite.

Of course this exists today, but once the power transfer is complete it will last until the regime falls and those who have read history understand the fall will not be easy, short or non violent.

A look back on USMB History:

Let us all hope that the failure of the Trump Administration is soon to come, and the inability of the GOP controlled Congress (which proved once again they can win elections, but cannot govern effectively) will be replaced by the democratic process this coming November.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The Republican Party will control the Senate, the H. of Rep. and the White House on Jan 20, 2017. The reason is simple, mass murders have created the Great Wedge Issue, and single issue voters will not support Democratic candidates for the simple reason that they will believe the D's will take their guns.

It matters not that the Republican Party will soon have greater control of the Supreme Court, since the new President will likely have several appointments, and as a result the goal of creating an Oligarchy will be met, and America will further decline into a nation ruled by a power elite ready; an elite willing and able to remake our nation into a Plutocracy.

Consider the consequences to you and your family, when the EPA, FDA, etc. and progressive taxation has been eliminated, and replaced by unregulated, lassiez faire capitalism. When each state makes their own rules/laws, rules and laws written by and signed by members of the power elite.

Of course this exists today, but once the power transfer is complete it will last until the regime falls and those who have read history understand the fall will not be easy, short or non violent.

A look back on USMB History:

Let us all hope that the failure of the Trump Administration is soon to come, and the inability of the GOP controlled Congress (which proved once again they can win elections, but cannot govern effectively) will be replaced by the democratic process this coming November.

Dems are going to run on tax increases for all, right?

 

[Wry Catcher]

The Republican Party will control the Senate, the H. of Rep. and the White House on Jan 20, 2017. The reason is simple, mass murders have created the Great Wedge Issue, and single issue voters will not support Democratic candidates for the simple reason that they will believe the D's will take their guns.

It matters not that the Republican Party will soon have greater control of the Supreme Court, since the new President will likely have several appointments, and as a result the goal of creating an Oligarchy will be met, and America will further decline into a nation ruled by a power elite ready; an elite willing and able to remake our nation into a Plutocracy.

Consider the consequences to you and your family, when the EPA, FDA, etc. and progressive taxation has been eliminated, and replaced by unregulated, lassiez faire capitalism. When each state makes their own rules/laws, rules and laws written by and signed by members of the power elite.

Of course this exists today, but once the power transfer is complete it will last until the regime falls and those who have read history understand the fall will not be easy, short or non violent.

A look back on USMB History:

Let us all hope that the failure of the Trump Administration is soon to come, and the inability of the GOP controlled Congress (which proved once again they can win elections, but cannot govern effectively) will be replaced by the democratic process this coming November.

Dems are going to run on tax increases for all, right?

Wrong. D's need to run on a fiscally responsible policy, one which details the cost-benefits vis a vis the cost-deficits in a budget.

Fiscal conservatives are outnumbered by the don't tax and spend Congress under McConnell and Ryan - sure to lead to another economic correction / recession when trickle down fails.

BTW Frank, how about explaining why you haven't brought up the national debt which is predicted to increase by a Trillion Dollars or more, and be passed on to our kids and theirs by this tax reform?

Do you believe tax cuts to global corporations and the billionaire set will trickle down to you?

 

[Wry Catcher]

It seems that democrats are on the side of mass murderers while they work to disarm law abiding citizens. The left leaning MSM buried the story of the democrat activist and Sanders supporter opening fire on a republican baseball team faster than they put James Hodgkinsin (who?) in the ground. Did Hodgkinson contact ranking democrats while he was living in his van in D.C. and planning to murder every conservative republican on a list he carried in his pocket? We'll never know. How about Stephen Paddock? The liberal media deemed the Vegas concert to be a right wing celebration and since the media isn't interested in coming up with a motive we are left with the same hatred and anger that motivated Hodgkinson.

Reported as way off topic.

 

[NightFox]

Consider the consequences to you and your family, when the EPA, FDA, etc. and progressive taxation has been eliminated, and replaced by unregulated, lassiez faire capitalism. .

You say that like it's a bad thing.

Of course neither of the Washington Crime Families will ever do anything close to that so it's completely moot.

 

[Wry Catcher]

Consider the consequences to you and your family, when the EPA, FDA, etc. and progressive taxation has been eliminated, and replaced by unregulated, lassiez faire capitalism. .

You say that like it's a bad thing.

Of course neither of the Washington Crime Families will ever do anything close to that so it's completely moot.

Do you believe deregulation is a good thing? If so, please explain why.