Ret, Naval Intelligence Chief: There's a 60% chance of War with China. Chinese military build-up is fastest in history

shockedcanadian

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Aug 6, 2012
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This is a great listen from a man who spent 25 years in the military and spent time as one of the top men in the Indo-Pacific. You can't buy this kind of intelligence. Listen to it twice if you have the time. This is one source link, you may be able to find another.

Some key takeaways for me:

1. He suggests that American intelligence agencies (and government) know far too little about China (and their system). This is shocking to me as I first learned of Chinas rise with some suspicion in 2003 after reading with interest a book that promotes their in-roads into U.S industries. I suspected immediately with some alarm that this would have long-term consequences for all of us as the Middle Class would disappear.

Are America really as naive as some suggest? He suggests the focus on the war on terror lead too many resources to be played in that theatre and too few understand China well enough. Shocking to me at this point. Was the MSS THAT good??!

2. A real concept I never thought of too deeply but he is correct, it is high time that the U.S (and all Western governments) speak clearly to their citizens in a frank and direct manner about the threat. They need to speak clearly and rally a national identity, as Reagan did when facing communism, so that citizens can be prepared and have focus.

China has been conducting these domestic "PSAs" for simplicity of terms against the U.S for years. It is vital that we do the same. No sugar coating or pretending. The head of the FBI is warning Americans. I am telling you that they are active in influencing California and New York in particular. MSS has been more effective than any other agencies in modern times IMO. Controlling the narrative in their favor. Placing high ranked spies in the U.S government, some of them caught. How many not caught?


3. His assessment of China extending more advanced with their fake drills into Taiwan and elsewhere. Normalizing these actions until the day when they really act. This includes the build up before hand for which he said the U.S at one point could count on a 90 day advanced notice through information but China has decreased that heads up time.

4. Something I suspected as well, Chinas build up of nukes is to ensure that like Russia threatened with some success in order to paralyze the West. They are investing a great deal on nukes. An odd decision for a nation looking for a peaceful existence. In fact, this nuclear build-up might be the strongest indication of future objectives.

There are many other learning points in this interview. Well worth the listen and a reminder that many of us aren't spreading fear, we are hoping for the best but expecting the worst.


 
Something I suspected as well, Chinas build up of nukes is to ensure that like Russia threatened with some success in order to paralyze the West. They are investing a great deal on nukes. An odd decision for a nation looking for a peaceful existence.

The same can be said of the United States. Odd it's OK for the U.S. but nefarious when China does it.

Is it likely that China attacks the U.S.? It's highly unlikely so there would be no need for war.
 
Something I suspected as well, Chinas build up of nukes is to ensure that like Russia threatened with some success in order to paralyze the West. They are investing a great deal on nukes. An odd decision for a nation looking for a peaceful existence.

The same can be said of the United States. Odd it's OK for the U.S. but nefarious when China does it.

Is it likely that China attacks the U.S.? It's highly unlikely so there would be no need for war.


America built up their nukes to keep up with the Cold War. Also, America does NOT have a strike-first nuclear policy.
 
This is a great listen from a man who spent 25 years in the military and spent time as one of the top men in the Indo-Pacific. You can't buy this kind of intelligence. Listen to it twice if you have the time. This is one source link, you may be able to find another.

Some key takeaways for me:

1. He suggests that American intelligence agencies (and government) know far too little about China (and their system). This is shocking to me as I first learned of Chinas rise with some suspicion in 2003 after reading with interest a book that promotes their in-roads into U.S industries. I suspected immediately with some alarm that this would have long-term consequences for all of us as the Middle Class would disappear.

Are America really as naive as some suggest? He suggests the focus on the war on terror lead too many resources to be played in that theatre and too few understand China well enough. Shocking to me at this point. Was the MSS THAT good??!

2. A real concept I never thought of too deeply but he is correct, it is high time that the U.S (and all Western governments) speak clearly to their citizens in a frank and direct manner about the threat. They need to speak clearly and rally a national identity, as Reagan did when facing communism, so that citizens can be prepared and have focus.

China has been conducting these domestic "PSAs" for simplicity of terms against the U.S for years. It is vital that we do the same. No sugar coating or pretending. The head of the FBI is warning Americans. I am telling you that they are active in influencing California and New York in particular. MSS has been more effective than any other agencies in modern times IMO. Controlling the narrative in their favor. Placing high ranked spies in the U.S government, some of them caught. How many not caught?


3. His assessment of China extending more advanced with their fake drills into Taiwan and elsewhere. Normalizing these actions until the day when they really act. This includes the build up before hand for which he said the U.S at one point could count on a 90 day advanced notice through information but China has decreased that heads up time.

4. Something I suspected as well, Chinas build up of nukes is to ensure that like Russia threatened with some success in order to paralyze the West. They are investing a great deal on nukes. An odd decision for a nation looking for a peaceful existence. In fact, this nuclear build-up might be the strongest indication of future objectives.

There are many other learning points in this interview. Well worth the listen and a reminder that many of us aren't spreading fear, we are hoping for the best but expecting the worst.


Since Obama was in office the US military has been in decline
 
I doubt China would invade Taiwan…..they would lose

I can see them invading Lower Manchuria in Russia and taking back territory they lost 150 years ago.

I doubt Russia could put up much of a fight
I doubt the rest of the world would care
 
This is a great listen from a man who spent 25 years in the military and spent time as one of the top men in the Indo-Pacific. You can't buy this kind of intelligence. Listen to it twice if you have the time. This is one source link, you may be able to find another.

Some key takeaways for me:

1. He suggests that American intelligence agencies (and government) know far too little about China (and their system). This is shocking to me as I first learned of Chinas rise with some suspicion in 2003 after reading with interest a book that promotes their in-roads into U.S industries. I suspected immediately with some alarm that this would have long-term consequences for all of us as the Middle Class would disappear.

Are America really as naive as some suggest? He suggests the focus on the war on terror lead too many resources to be played in that theatre and too few understand China well enough. Shocking to me at this point. Was the MSS THAT good??!

2. A real concept I never thought of too deeply but he is correct, it is high time that the U.S (and all Western governments) speak clearly to their citizens in a frank and direct manner about the threat. They need to speak clearly and rally a national identity, as Reagan did when facing communism, so that citizens can be prepared and have focus.

China has been conducting these domestic "PSAs" for simplicity of terms against the U.S for years. It is vital that we do the same. No sugar coating or pretending. The head of the FBI is warning Americans. I am telling you that they are active in influencing California and New York in particular. MSS has been more effective than any other agencies in modern times IMO. Controlling the narrative in their favor. Placing high ranked spies in the U.S government, some of them caught. How many not caught?


3. His assessment of China extending more advanced with their fake drills into Taiwan and elsewhere. Normalizing these actions until the day when they really act. This includes the build up before hand for which he said the U.S at one point could count on a 90 day advanced notice through information but China has decreased that heads up time.

4. Something I suspected as well, Chinas build up of nukes is to ensure that like Russia threatened with some success in order to paralyze the West. They are investing a great deal on nukes. An odd decision for a nation looking for a peaceful existence. In fact, this nuclear build-up might be the strongest indication of future objectives.

There are many other learning points in this interview. Well worth the listen and a reminder that many of us aren't spreading fear, we are hoping for the best but expecting the worst.



Wouldn't be much of a "war" with China, if Harris gets elected. Her administration would just bitch and moan about China, maybe put some purely-symbolic sanctions on them. But they wouldn't really have much in the way of leverage against them. The Biden administration already has our defense industries stretched beyond their capacities to supply the war in Ukraine, so I doubt that we could really offer Taiwan much in the way of weapons and support. At this point, China can pretty much do whatever they want, depending on whether their economy can afford it or not. Unlike when Trump was President, they neither fear nor respect Biden/Harris and if there is any CCP "election interference", it would be aimed at keeping Trump from being reelected.
 
Wouldn't be much of a "war" with China, if Harris gets elected. Her administration would just bitch and moan about China, maybe put some purely-symbolic sanctions on them. But they wouldn't really have much in the way of leverage against them. The Biden administration already has our defense industries stretched beyond their capacities to supply the war in Ukraine, so I doubt that we could really offer Taiwan much in the way of weapons and support. At this point, China can pretty much do whatever they want, depending on whether their economy can afford it or not. Unlike when Trump was President, they neither fear nor respect Biden/Harris and if there is any CCP "election interference", it would be aimed at keeping Trump from being reelected.
Unlike previous Presidents, Biden made it clear he would back Taiwan and has sent them billions in military aid.

China is just faking
Taiwan would crush them if they tried to invade
 
I doubt China would invade Taiwan…..they would lose

I can see them invading Lower Manchuria in Russia and taking back territory they lost 150 years ago.

I doubt Russia could put up much of a fight
I doubt the rest of the world would care

That's EXACTLY The advise they gave Zelen$$$ky!!!
 
Wouldn't be much of a "war" with China, if Harris gets elected. Her administration would just bitch and moan about China, maybe put some purely-symbolic sanctions on them.

So, exactly what Trump did his first term?
 
This is shocking to me as I first learned of Chinas rise with some suspicion in 2003 after reading with interest a book that promotes their in-roads into U.S industries. I suspected immediately with some alarm that this would have long-term consequences for all of us as the Middle Class would disappear.

What book was this, I would like to read it
 
This is a great listen from a man who spent 25 years in the military and spent time as one of the top men in the Indo-Pacific. You can't buy this kind of intelligence. Listen to it twice if you have the time. This is one source link, you may be able to find another.

Some key takeaways for me:

1. He suggests that American intelligence agencies (and government) know far too little about China (and their system). This is shocking to me as I first learned of Chinas rise with some suspicion in 2003 after reading with interest a book that promotes their in-roads into U.S industries. I suspected immediately with some alarm that this would have long-term consequences for all of us as the Middle Class would disappear.
China didn't kill our Middle Class. We did that ourselves.

I agree that the West doesn't understand China, which is why we are likely to blunder into war because of a miscalculation.

Are America really as naive as some suggest? He suggests the focus on the war on terror lead too many resources to be played in that theatre and too few understand China well enough. Shocking to me at this point. Was the MSS THAT good??!

We spend so much on the Middle East because 1) we are addicted to petroleum and 2) the Jews run our foreign policy.

The absurdity is that going to war with China over some Islands in the South CHINA Sea that barely sticks out of the water is a good idea or of national interest. (And it will be Americans who end up dying, not Canadians.)

2. A real concept I never thought of too deeply but he is correct, it is high time that the U.S (and all Western governments) speak clearly to their citizens in a frank and direct manner about the threat. They need to speak clearly and rally a national identity, as Reagan did when facing communism, so that citizens can be prepared and have focus.

Um, yeah, about that. I grew up being terrorized by American politicians about the "Evil Empire" and how they were going to get us all. And then, one morning, we all woke up to find that the "Evil Empire" was just a collection of third-world countries that were barely holding it together.

China is not exporting Maoism around the world the way the USSR exported communism. They aren't occupying countries on their borders. They are exporting trade (being most of the world's top trading partners.)

China has been conducting these domestic "PSAs" for simplicity of terms against the U.S for years. It is vital that we do the same. No sugar coating or pretending. The head of the FBI is warning Americans. I am telling you that they are active in influencing California and New York in particular. MSS has been more effective than any other agencies in modern times IMO. Controlling the narrative in their favor. Placing high ranked spies in the U.S government, some of them caught. How many not caught?

China is always going to have an advantage in finding agents in that there are already a million people of Chinese descent in the US. But again, so what? I guess I'm old enough and I've seen too many times when the government told us there was a Russian hiding under the bed and an Arab hiding in the closet, I'm just a little cynical when someone tells me that a country that we haven't had a conflict with in 70 years is really scary, you guys.

3. His assessment of China extending more advanced with their fake drills into Taiwan and elsewhere. Normalizing these actions until the day when they really act. This includes the build up before hand for which he said the U.S at one point could count on a 90 day advanced notice through information but China has decreased that heads up time.

Taiwan is part of China. This has been our policy since 1949 and remained our policy after 1979, when Jimmy Carter accepted the reality that the government in Beijing was the legitimate government and not the one in Taipei.

4. Something I suspected as well, Chinas build up of nukes is to ensure that like Russia threatened with some success in order to paralyze the West. They are investing a great deal on nukes. An odd decision for a nation looking for a peaceful existence. In fact, this nuclear build-up might be the strongest indication of future objectives.
The US has 5000 nuclear warheads, China has only 500.

We have 1700 of them deployed, China has only deployed 27 of them.


Oh, and I should point out, only one country has ever used nukes on people.

There are many other learning points in this interview. Well worth the listen and a reminder that many of us aren't spreading fear, we are hoping for the best but expecting the worst.
Sounds to me like you are spreading fear.

You haven't given me one good reason why I should fear China the way we used to fear the USSR.

China is not arming insurgencies around the world like Russia did.
They are not occupying neighboring countries.
 
I doubt China would invade Taiwan…..they would lose

I can see them invading Lower Manchuria in Russia and taking back territory they lost 150 years ago.

I doubt Russia could put up much of a fight
I doubt the rest of the world would care
Heck, for that matter, China hasn't made an attempt to retake Outer Mongolia, which they have a valid territorial claim to.

Right now Myanmar is in chaos, some of which has spilled over into China, but China hasn't taken military action to either restore order or take advantage. They could probably crush Myanmar like a bug.

North Korea would probably WELCOME China liberating them from the Kim Dynasty. But they keep Pyongyang at an arm's distance.

Taiwan is a special case because 1) It was a territory that is ethnically (Han) Chinese, 2) It goes around claiming to be the legitimate government of China, and 3) It has been the subject of past foreign aggression against China.
 
China didn't kill our Middle Class. We did that ourselves.

I agree that the West doesn't understand China, which is why we are likely to blunder into war because of a miscalculation.



We spend so much on the Middle East because 1) we are addicted to petroleum and 2) the Jews run our foreign policy.

The absurdity is that going to war with China over some Islands in the South CHINA Sea that barely sticks out of the water is a good idea or of national interest. (And it will be Americans who end up dying, not Canadians.)



Um, yeah, about that. I grew up being terrorized by American politicians about the "Evil Empire" and how they were going to get us all. And then, one morning, we all woke up to find that the "Evil Empire" was just a collection of third-world countries that were barely holding it together.

China is not exporting Maoism around the world the way the USSR exported communism. They aren't occupying countries on their borders. They are exporting trade (being most of the world's top trading partners.)



China is always going to have an advantage in finding agents in that there are already a million people of Chinese descent in the US. But again, so what? I guess I'm old enough and I've seen too many times when the government told us there was a Russian hiding under the bed and an Arab hiding in the closet, I'm just a little cynical when someone tells me that a country that we haven't had a conflict with in 70 years is really scary, you guys.



Taiwan is part of China. This has been our policy since 1949 and remained our policy after 1979, when Jimmy Carter accepted the reality that the government in Beijing was the legitimate government and not the one in Taipei.


The US has 5000 nuclear warheads, China has only 500.

We have 1700 of them deployed, China has only deployed 27 of them.


Oh, and I should point out, only one country has ever used nukes on people.


Sounds to me like you are spreading fear.

You haven't given me one good reason why I should fear China the way we used to fear the USSR.

China is not arming insurgencies around the world like Russia did.
They are not occupying neighboring countries.

Joe loves China, the CCP and their miniscule per capita Carbon footprint!

His CCP credit score is the highest ever!
 

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