Scottish referendum next?

[montelatici]

Scotland will remain part of the UK.
The prospect of them simply switching from UK to EU has been shot down by Spain (and the UK wouldn't allow it anyway).
They must wait until the UK finally leaves the EU - at least 2 years before that happens - and then they must decide whether to hold another independence referendum. The choice would be: nearest friends and customers vs EU.
If they chose EU, they would have to meet all financial obligations for a new applicant and, when they do that, they would have to adopt the Euro as their currency which is already a failing currency.
They would also need to accept free movement of immigrants. So far, few immigrants have made it up to Scotland, preferring the cosier England. The prospect of thousands of immigrants flooding over their borders will scare off many voters for independence.
Add on a low oil price and the need to continue sharing their fishing waters with the rest of the EU, then Scotland will have precious little to sustain them in their quest for economic stability.
They may well end up like Greece.
Scotland's interests are best served by remaining in the UK, working towards making a bigger success of Brexit.
Once other countries in the EU that are under pressure see how well it is going, they too will call for an Exit.
The EU is doomed and the UK has shown the other 27 member countries the way out.

This Spain thing is a mystery though, I think. If Spain is happy with Ireland and Latvia in the EU, then why not Scotland? After all, Spain is now virtually bankrupt and its pions could then look for new foreign jobs in Scotland too, in addition to Germany.

You seem to believe the propaganda. If Spain is bankrupt, what is the U.S. It's funny how people believe that somehow only public debt is dent LOL

That 35 % is most likely the student loan industry. A special game, that has not fully found its way into Europe, but will soon I bet. The problem with private debt that it is difficult to compare it with anything, because it changes often as randomly as laws written to underwrite it. On the other hand, national debt is per international agreements, a much slower variable, so national debt is the a better candidate for a metric, although not perfect. If after the student loan game the legislators suddenly decide to write a few new laws about creating a sex loan industry too, then that will be a private debt industry, underwritten automatically by the federal government, and still will serve no value in international comparisons.

No, what you and many others fail to understand is that in continental Europe, higher education is financed publicly, so students do not require loans, so that debt goes on the public side. The same with healthcare, it is a public benefit in continental Europe, so people do not borrow to pay their health bills. But, it gets added to the public debt.

 

[Flopper]

The EU is making special provisions for Scotland and NI to join the EU without much red tape.

And if Britain says no the EU cant do a thing as they are still part of the UNION. If they do it would be seen as an act of war and the UN would then become involved. It would be like the Russians offering New Mexico membership of the Russian federation while they are still part of the American federation

Once Britain invokes Article 50, the clock starts ticking. In 2 years, Britain is out of the EU. They will no longer have access to 30 EU trade treaties nor any agreements between member states or states external to the EU. Briton would pay tariffs on most exports to EU countries. However exports to EU countries could only occur after an EU safety inspection for every single industry. Ever EU passport and Visa held by a UK citizen wound be invalid. British citizens working in EU country would have no legal right to be there. The list goes on and on.

The only thing the EU is required to do for Britain is attempt to negotiate an exit agreement and Brussels has made it clear that they will deal harshly with Britain.

 

[Flopper]

The EU is making special provisions for Scotland and NI to join the EU without much red tape.

And if Britain says no the EU cant do a thing as they are still part of the UNION. If they do it would be seen as an act of war and the UN would then become involved. It would be like the Russians offering New Mexico membership of the Russian federation while they are still part of the American federation

It would take 2 years for a Scottish referendum and hammering out the an exit agreement with Britain and an entrance agreement to the EU. At the usually speed of negotiations it would take years.

The Brexit agreement approved by voters is non-binding. Parliament could still say no. To me, it sounds doubtful that members of parliament would go against the will of the people. A second referendum seems more likely.

 

[Irritable Owl]

If tariffs are imposed on UK exports then so will tariffs be applied to imports from the EU. Because UK imports more than it exports to the EU, this will create a windfall for UK as the balance is 70/80 billion pounds.
Tariffs on German cars and French produe for example will make those products more expensive and thus fewer people will buy leading to job losses across the EU. The German car industry is a major voice and will not allow Merkel to preside over job losses just to spite the UK.

On another point, whilst the Brexit vote is an instruction to the UK government to get us the hell out of the EU and is not legally binding, I pity any UK government that goes against the will of the public and refuses to do its bidding. Such a move would switch votes to UKIP whose sole premise is to get the UK out of Europe. UKIP might not form a government but the votes it takes off other parties will lead to a coalition government, and none of the main parties want that.

There will be no disregarding of this UK democratic vote nor will there be a second referendum. The course is set and people had better make the best of it.

 

[montelatici]

The "exports" to the EU by Britain do not include financial services that UK financial entities provide throughout the EU. They dwarf the hard exports to the EU. The UK is going to lose big time with those entities moving out of the UK.

 

[Phoenall]

Scotland will remain part of the UK.
The prospect of them simply switching from UK to EU has been shot down by Spain (and the UK wouldn't allow it anyway).
They must wait until the UK finally leaves the EU - at least 2 years before that happens - and then they must decide whether to hold another independence referendum. The choice would be: nearest friends and customers vs EU.
If they chose EU, they would have to meet all financial obligations for a new applicant and, when they do that, they would have to adopt the Euro as their currency which is already a failing currency.
They would also need to accept free movement of immigrants. So far, few immigrants have made it up to Scotland, preferring the cosier England. The prospect of thousands of immigrants flooding over their borders will scare off many voters for independence.
Add on a low oil price and the need to continue sharing their fishing waters with the rest of the EU, then Scotland will have precious little to sustain them in their quest for economic stability.
They may well end up like Greece.
Scotland's interests are best served by remaining in the UK, working towards making a bigger success of Brexit.
Once other countries in the EU that are under pressure see how well it is going, they too will call for an Exit.
The EU is doomed and the UK has shown the other 27 member countries the way out.

This Spain thing is a mystery though, I think. If Spain is happy with Ireland and Latvia in the EU, then why not Scotland? After all, Spain is now virtually bankrupt and its pions could then look for new foreign jobs in Scotland too, in addition to Germany.

Because Scotland has show how two faced they are and like all neo Marxists they want a re run of the referendum until they get the result they wanted. I say let them hold a referendum at their own cost, and see how they manage when the next elections come round and they are all unemployed. They are living in a fantasy world and the EU have already told them they are not wanted, and still they hang around like wannabee's

 

[Phoenall]

The "exports" to the EU by Britain do not include financial services that UK financial entities provide throughout the EU. They dwarf the hard exports to the EU. The UK is going to lose big time with those entities moving out of the UK.

BULLSHIT come back when you know what you are talking about, and stop telling lies.

The EU demand we in the UK accept an 80% trade deficit for starters and that is what the EU is now going to lose. That 1 billion per annum trade income while we lose nothing because the contracts are still running

 

[anotherlife]

I have now studied this brexit a little, and my summary of its mechanism looks like this, I think.

The rats in the box ran out of cheese so they decided to bite up each other. This is solved by brexit which is to duck tape the box.

Your take?

 

[Phoenall]

The "exports" to the EU by Britain do not include financial services that UK financial entities provide throughout the EU. They dwarf the hard exports to the EU. The UK is going to lose big time with those entities moving out of the UK.

That is the only exports the EU threw in our bowls, and we damned sure that they were water tight contracts with default clauses built in. The EU can keep their rubbish food and sell it to you invading colonists, give you something else to complain about.


When you know what you are talking about, come back and I will educate you even more on the real world.

 

[Phoenall]

I have now studied this brexit a little, and my summary of its mechanism looks like this, I think.

The rats in the box ran out of cheese so they decided to bite up each other. This is solved by brexit which is to duck tape the box.

Your take?

The rats in Brussels wanted all the British money to fulfil their dreams of a new Soviet Republic. The educated people of the UK say through their game and so demanded changes in our laws and re-writing of agreements and treaties or we would walk and take our money with us. The rats thought we were like onion Johnny and would do nothing, then they saw we were hell bent on leaving the septic lands of Europe to take back control of our lives and laws. They realised too late that their vision of the glorious united European federal states was all a pipe dream, and that the EU had become a self destroying monster. The open door policy was doomed to failure while it allowed criminals free access to new hunting grounds, and forced nations already struggling to take on more welfare debt to cope. The simple answer was to find an area that was desolate and build camps to house the refugees. Make them work the lands to feed themselves and segregate them from each other

 

[Phoenall]

Scotland will remain part of the UK.
The prospect of them simply switching from UK to EU has been shot down by Spain (and the UK wouldn't allow it anyway).
They must wait until the UK finally leaves the EU - at least 2 years before that happens - and then they must decide whether to hold another independence referendum. The choice would be: nearest friends and customers vs EU.
If they chose EU, they would have to meet all financial obligations for a new applicant and, when they do that, they would have to adopt the Euro as their currency which is already a failing currency.
They would also need to accept free movement of immigrants. So far, few immigrants have made it up to Scotland, preferring the cosier England. The prospect of thousands of immigrants flooding over their borders will scare off many voters for independence.
Add on a low oil price and the need to continue sharing their fishing waters with the rest of the EU, then Scotland will have precious little to sustain them in their quest for economic stability.
They may well end up like Greece.
Scotland's interests are best served by remaining in the UK, working towards making a bigger success of Brexit.
Once other countries in the EU that are under pressure see how well it is going, they too will call for an Exit.
The EU is doomed and the UK has shown the other 27 member countries the way out.

This Spain thing is a mystery though, I think. If Spain is happy with Ireland and Latvia in the EU, then why not Scotland? After all, Spain is now virtually bankrupt and its pions could then look for new foreign jobs in Scotland too, in addition to Germany.

You seem to believe the propaganda. If Spain is bankrupt, what is the U.S. It's funny how people believe that somehow only public debt is dent LOL

That 35 % is most likely the student loan industry. A special game, that has not fully found its way into Europe, but will soon I bet. The problem with private debt that it is difficult to compare it with anything, because it changes often as randomly as laws written to underwrite it. On the other hand, national debt is per international agreements, a much slower variable, so national debt is the a better candidate for a metric, although not perfect. If after the student loan game the legislators suddenly decide to write a few new laws about creating a sex loan industry too, then that will be a private debt industry, underwritten automatically by the federal government, and still will serve no value in international comparisons.

No, what you and many others fail to understand is that in continental Europe, higher education is financed publicly, so students do not require loans, so that debt goes on the public side. The same with healthcare, it is a public benefit in continental Europe, so people do not borrow to pay their health bills. But, it gets added to the public debt.

WRONG adult education has to be paid for now, and so we have student loans that have to be repaid. This leads to a them and us situation with the rich going on to University, and the rest looking for jobs at the bottom. The NHS is funded from taxes paid over and above normal taxes, with certain aspects fully funded by direct payments for treatment. So we pay for our health treatment over our working life. Most EU nations have a two or even three tier system of health care, with clinics similar to the US Medicaid for the destitute, minimal health care for those on very low incomes and a top tier that looks after those who can afford the bills. This is why so many EU migrants flood into Britain to get free education, free healthcare and free welfare, and the pot is running dry

 

[Phoenall]

The EU is making special provisions for Scotland and NI to join the EU without much red tape.

And if Britain says no the EU cant do a thing as they are still part of the UNION. If they do it would be seen as an act of war and the UN would then become involved. It would be like the Russians offering New Mexico membership of the Russian federation while they are still part of the American federation

Once Britain invokes Article 50, the clock starts ticking. In 2 years, Britain is out of the EU. They will no longer have access to 30 EU trade treaties nor any agreements between member states or states external to the EU. Briton would pay tariffs on most exports to EU countries. However exports to EU countries could only occur after an EU safety inspection for every single industry. Ever EU passport and Visa held by a UK citizen wound be invalid. British citizens working in EU country would have no legal right to be there. The list goes on and on.

The only thing the EU is required to do for Britain is attempt to negotiate an exit agreement and Brussels has made it clear that they will deal harshly with Britain.

Which is against the very same treaties that you are invoking. The trade tariffs work both ways and the EU could not afford the cost on the goods, or the problems they would cause. The EU would have no say in how Britain operated its industries and so would not get access to inspect. When it became international news the rest of the world would impose the same on the EU and watch them squirm. We don't have access to those 30 treaties now so they would not make any difference at all.
If the British workers had the needed visa's and paperwork they would carry on as normal. and the EU is again in defecit on this as we have 10 million migrants as opposed to 1 million Brit migrants

 

[Phoenall]

The EU is making special provisions for Scotland and NI to join the EU without much red tape.

And if Britain says no the EU cant do a thing as they are still part of the UNION. If they do it would be seen as an act of war and the UN would then become involved. It would be like the Russians offering New Mexico membership of the Russian federation while they are still part of the American federation

It would take 2 years for a Scottish referendum and hammering out the an exit agreement with Britain and an entrance agreement to the EU. At the usually speed of negotiations it would take years.

The Brexit agreement approved by voters is non-binding. Parliament could still say no. To me, it sounds doubtful that members of parliament would go against the will of the people. A second referendum seems more likely.

NO means NO and that is how it stands. No government can go against the wishes of its people if it expects to rule.

Scotland wants to re run every vote it loses until it gets the result it wants, and wants England to fund the bills. Well if it wants a re run it will have to sell the family silver and fund it themselves.

No second referendum because the result was wrong for Eton old boys.

 

[anotherlife]

I have now studied this brexit a little, and my summary of its mechanism looks like this, I think.

The rats in the box ran out of cheese so they decided to bite up each other. This is solved by brexit which is to duck tape the box.

Your take?

The rats in Brussels wanted all the British money to fulfil their dreams of a new Soviet Republic. The educated people of the UK say through their game and so demanded changes in our laws and re-writing of agreements and treaties or we would walk and take our money with us. The rats thought we were like onion Johnny and would do nothing, then they saw we were hell bent on leaving the septic lands of Europe to take back control of our lives and laws. They realised too late that their vision of the glorious united European federal states was all a pipe dream, and that the EU had become a self destroying monster. The open door policy was doomed to failure while it allowed criminals free access to new hunting grounds, and forced nations already struggling to take on more welfare debt to cope. The simple answer was to find an area that was desolate and build camps to house the refugees. Make them work the lands to feed themselves and segregate them from each other

Well it may be true that the only way to keep a European Union that is based on nation states is to go Marxist. This is naturally unacceptable, but not impossible. Little England will probably not stand up to the trades of the big Satan next door. The key doesn't seem to be in British hands and the EU knows that.

 

[Flopper]

If tariffs are imposed on UK exports then so will tariffs be applied to imports from the EU. Because UK imports more than it exports to the EU, this will create a windfall for UK as the balance is 70/80 billion pounds.
Tariffs on German cars and French produe for example will make those products more expensive and thus fewer people will buy leading to job losses across the EU. The German car industry is a major voice and will not allow Merkel to preside over job losses just to spite the UK.

On another point, whilst the Brexit vote is an instruction to the UK government to get us the hell out of the EU and is not legally binding, I pity any UK government that goes against the will of the public and refuses to do its bidding. Such a move would switch votes to UKIP whose sole premise is to get the UK out of Europe. UKIP might not form a government but the votes it takes off other parties will lead to a coalition government, and none of the main parties want that.

There will be no disregarding of this UK democratic vote nor will there be a second referendum. The course is set and people had better make the best of it.

Trade wars are just plain bad. Exporters from Britain will be at a competitive disadvantage and importers will sell less at higher prices. The British people will pay more for the imports since they import more than they export.

Free trade allows each country to produce what it can produce the best without government jacking up prices for political reasons. The only beneficiary is the government who collects the taxes and builds bigger bureaucracies.

 

[Phoenall]

I have now studied this brexit a little, and my summary of its mechanism looks like this, I think.

The rats in the box ran out of cheese so they decided to bite up each other. This is solved by brexit which is to duck tape the box.

Your take?

The rats in Brussels wanted all the British money to fulfil their dreams of a new Soviet Republic. The educated people of the UK say through their game and so demanded changes in our laws and re-writing of agreements and treaties or we would walk and take our money with us. The rats thought we were like onion Johnny and would do nothing, then they saw we were hell bent on leaving the septic lands of Europe to take back control of our lives and laws. They realised too late that their vision of the glorious united European federal states was all a pipe dream, and that the EU had become a self destroying monster. The open door policy was doomed to failure while it allowed criminals free access to new hunting grounds, and forced nations already struggling to take on more welfare debt to cope. The simple answer was to find an area that was desolate and build camps to house the refugees. Make them work the lands to feed themselves and segregate them from each other

Well it may be true that the only way to keep a European Union that is based on nation states is to go Marxist. This is naturally unacceptable, but not impossible. Little England will probably not stand up to the trades of the big Satan next door. The key doesn't seem to be in British hands and the EU knows that.

As with the exit vote you are not reading the posts. The rest of Europe is looking to see what happens and is poised to split from the federal states. Then it will be Marxist France against the rest of the world, and they will lose. The EU made treaties thinking they would control every nation state so did not put in watertight clauses, now they are trying to change them because little Britain has shown them the errors of their ways. They already fear losing the trade they have given Britain as it amounts a substantial part of the agriculture of France, Spain and Belgium. They also fear losing the abundant fishing grounds around Britain as they have none left after raping the seas for so long. The EU is so reliant on the UK that they will collapse without our support, so are lying to cover up their failings

 

[Phoenall]

If tariffs are imposed on UK exports then so will tariffs be applied to imports from the EU. Because UK imports more than it exports to the EU, this will create a windfall for UK as the balance is 70/80 billion pounds.
Tariffs on German cars and French produe for example will make those products more expensive and thus fewer people will buy leading to job losses across the EU. The German car industry is a major voice and will not allow Merkel to preside over job losses just to spite the UK.

On another point, whilst the Brexit vote is an instruction to the UK government to get us the hell out of the EU and is not legally binding, I pity any UK government that goes against the will of the public and refuses to do its bidding. Such a move would switch votes to UKIP whose sole premise is to get the UK out of Europe. UKIP might not form a government but the votes it takes off other parties will lead to a coalition government, and none of the main parties want that.

There will be no disregarding of this UK democratic vote nor will there be a second referendum. The course is set and people had better make the best of it.

Trade wars are just plain bad. Exporters from Britain will be at a competitive disadvantage and importers will sell less at higher prices. The British people will pay more for the imports since they import more than they export.

Free trade allows each country to produce what it can produce the best without government jacking up prices for political reasons. The only beneficiary is the government who collects the taxes and builds bigger bureaucracies.

How so when 90% of the UK's trade is outside of the EU, and now we will be able to trade freely without EU interference. Every trade deal we made had to be offered to the other member states for approval and acceptance. If another member state wanted to take the deal they were allowed to and the UK lost. Within the EU we were thrown the scraps and told to be thankful we had them. So our trade will not suffer, and leaving the EU has already opened up new markets for our goods and services. This is why the stock markets are picking up after the small blip last week

 

[Toro]

For a group of people who urged a step most economists regarded as irrational, some of those who campaigned for the U.K. to leave the European Union are unusually confident now that economic rationality will hold sway in the exit negotiations.

Many who favored so-called Brexit are sure that the 27 other EU governments will allow the U.K. unrestricted access to the reduced single market of 440 million people, figuring they will be eager to have free access to the lucrative U.K. market of 65 million. Influential German car companies, they insist, will bundle Berlin, and with it the EU, into a trade deal that suits London nicely.

Most economists argued that Brexit would make the U.K. poorer—and therefore a vote to leave wouldn’t be something a rational economic actor would do. It happened nonetheless. ...

In a rational world, the EU would indeed react to Brexit by seeking the closest economic relationship possible with the U.K., and this may be what happens. But there are other factors suggesting this outcome shouldn’t be taken for granted. ...

Asymmetry: Yes, the U.K. is important to Germany. German exports to Britain totaled £60.7 billion last year, almost twice British exports to Germany, and the U.K. was Germany’s third-largest export market. But the EU as a whole takes 45% of British exports, a share that has fallen in recent years while remaining very significant. On the other hand, Jonathan Portes of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has calculated, just under 16% of EU goods exports go to the U.K.; Ireland and Cyprus are the only two EU countries that send more than 10% of their goods exports to the U.K. In other words, the EU is more important to Britain than vice versa.​

U.K. Can’t Bank on EU’s Rationality in Talks

 

[Toro]

The City of London will certainly suffer. Tens of thousands of jobs will leave.

But where will they go?

Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin are the most likely destinations.

However, Edinburgh could also be a destination if Scotland leaves the UK. That's another incentive for the Scots to go their own way.

It's too bad. I like the union. But the English have made their own bed, and the UK as we know it will most likely change forever.

 

[anotherlife]

The City of London will certainly suffer. Tens of thousands of jobs will leave.

But where will they go?

Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin are the most likely destinations.

However, Edinburgh could also be a destination if Scotland leaves the UK. That's another incentive for the Scots to go their own way.

It's too bad. I like the union. But the English have made their own bed, and the UK as we know it will most likely change forever.

It is interesting that Wales has remained silent about brexit. Is that a fair guess that the logic of Scottish independence with the EU would apply the same way to Wales?