browsing deer
Silver Member
- Jul 11, 2015
- 2,455
- 403
This would be so nasty and devilish and downright mean. Cruz wouldn't do this, pity.
Wait a sec: Could Trump be shut out on the first ballot at the convention due to … Rule 40? - Hot Air
You know, I’d never drilled down on the precise wording of the rule before — but Liam Donovan and Patrick Ruffini have. Read it yourself. They’ve got half a point here.
Rule 40 is widely understood to mean that you can’t be considered for the nomination at the convention unless you’ve won a majority of delegates in eight states. Trump’s already met that threshold; Cruz, I believe, is right on the cusp of it and should get there next month. But … that’s not exactly what the rule says. This is what it says:
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business
In order to satisfy Rule 40, you don’t get to point to the vote totals of each primary. You need to present written support from a majority of delegates in eight different states. In a normal year like 2012, when most of the delegates were personally loyal to the candidate who clinched a majority during the primaries, that’s no sweat. This year is not normal. Thanks to Cruz’s delegate-wrangling wizardry, many delegates who are pledged to Trump on the first ballotaren’t personally loyal to him. One stark example is South Carolina, where Trump won all 50 delegates by winning the primary in February but where Cruz has been quietly recruiting his own loyalists to fill South Carolina’s delegate slots. What you’re destined to see at the convention is Trump getting all 50 SC votes on the first ballot and then dozens of that state’s delegates defecting to Cruz on the second. The rules require them to cast that initial vote for Trump — but the rules are ambiguous about whether they’re required to sign a written statement affirming a majority for Trump for Rule 40 purposes. What if a South Carolina delegate who’s personally loyal to Cruz refuses to sign a statement for Trump before the first ballot? In theory, despite winning dozens of states, Team Trump could be blocked from being nominated even on the first ballot because they can’t find majorities in eight different state delegations who are willing to sign. In fact, theoretically, Trump could clinch 1,237 delegates before the convention and still be thwarted on the first ballot because he can’t find enough written support, thanks to the many, many Cruz loyalists who’ll be filling delegate slots coast to coast.
Wait a sec: Could Trump be shut out on the first ballot at the convention due to … Rule 40? - Hot Air
You know, I’d never drilled down on the precise wording of the rule before — but Liam Donovan and Patrick Ruffini have. Read it yourself. They’ve got half a point here.
Rule 40 is widely understood to mean that you can’t be considered for the nomination at the convention unless you’ve won a majority of delegates in eight states. Trump’s already met that threshold; Cruz, I believe, is right on the cusp of it and should get there next month. But … that’s not exactly what the rule says. This is what it says:
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business
In order to satisfy Rule 40, you don’t get to point to the vote totals of each primary. You need to present written support from a majority of delegates in eight different states. In a normal year like 2012, when most of the delegates were personally loyal to the candidate who clinched a majority during the primaries, that’s no sweat. This year is not normal. Thanks to Cruz’s delegate-wrangling wizardry, many delegates who are pledged to Trump on the first ballotaren’t personally loyal to him. One stark example is South Carolina, where Trump won all 50 delegates by winning the primary in February but where Cruz has been quietly recruiting his own loyalists to fill South Carolina’s delegate slots. What you’re destined to see at the convention is Trump getting all 50 SC votes on the first ballot and then dozens of that state’s delegates defecting to Cruz on the second. The rules require them to cast that initial vote for Trump — but the rules are ambiguous about whether they’re required to sign a written statement affirming a majority for Trump for Rule 40 purposes. What if a South Carolina delegate who’s personally loyal to Cruz refuses to sign a statement for Trump before the first ballot? In theory, despite winning dozens of states, Team Trump could be blocked from being nominated even on the first ballot because they can’t find majorities in eight different state delegations who are willing to sign. In fact, theoretically, Trump could clinch 1,237 delegates before the convention and still be thwarted on the first ballot because he can’t find enough written support, thanks to the many, many Cruz loyalists who’ll be filling delegate slots coast to coast.
