So If Trump Is Tanking In The Polls, Shouldn't His Rally Crowds Be Shrinking Too?

[Redfish]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

the polls are bullshit. 1000 carefully selected "random" sample people out of 330,000,000 and the idiots think it means something? its a mathematical joke.

the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

Why then are the final polls all within a few points of the actual result on election day?

because they actually guess pretty well. But its still mathematical fantasy. A sample of 1000 out of a population of 330,000,000 is not statistically meaningful.

and yes, I understand that they claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in the 1000 sample. No one with a lick of sense accepts that.

 

[g5000]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

People are going to Trump rallies to see a freak show. The Clinton campaign is spending its money more wisely on voter turnout.

Trump's state level campaign managers are rank amateurs competing against hardcore professionals on Clinton's staff.

The Daily 202: What Trump’s latest shakeup says about his flailing campaign

• New Hampshire state director Matt Ciepielowski previously worked as a field director at Americans for Prosperity and a Youth for Ron Paul regional coordinator in Louisiana. “Matt who?” asked New Hampshire state Sen. Andy Sanborn. (Clinton’s point guy, Mike Vlacich, managed Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s reelection campaign in 2014.)

• Virginia state director Thomas Midanek was until July managing the congressional campaign of Carl Domino in Florida, who in 2014 lost the Republican-leaning district by 20 points. (Clinton’s is Brian Zuzenak, who previously ran Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s political operation.)

• Nevada state director Charles Munoz, a graduate of the University of Las Vegas-Nevada, is in his mid-twenties and has no meaningful experience. (Clinton’s is Jorge Neri, who was Obama’s 2012 Nevada field director and then held a White House job focused on Latino outreach.)

 

[g5000]

When you think about the inept morons running Trump's campaign, and about the hilariously low information surrogates he has out there speaking for him, remember Trump once said this:

Trump In 2007: Don't Hire People Who Are Smarter Than You

“You have to keep great people around you,” Trump said. “You have to motivate them. You always have to be on top of them. And you have to be smarter than they are. I hear so many times, ‘Oh, I want my people to be smarter than I am.’ It’s a lot of crap. You want to be smarter than your people, if possible.”

 

[Seawytch]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

the polls are bullshit. 1000 carefully selected "random" sample people out of 330,000,000 and the idiots think it means something? its a mathematical joke.

the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

Why then are the final polls all within a few points of the actual result on election day?

because they actually guess pretty well. But its still mathematical fantasy. A sample of 1000 out of a population of 330,000,000 is not statistically meaningful.

and yes, I understand that they claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in the 1000 sample. No one with a lick of sense accepts that.

Herp Derp...I reckons they just guesses good...yup, yup, yup.

Jesus...just when you think we aren't dumb enough as a country to elect Donald J Trump, Carnival Barker...

 

[jillian]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

no, dum dum, if you only keep the same rightwingnut loons who went to your rallies during the primary, you lose.... especially when you got fewer votes than your opponent got in HER primary.

I hope that explains things to you, dum dum.

 

[NYcarbineer]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

the polls are bullshit. 1000 carefully selected "random" sample people out of 330,000,000 and the idiots think it means something? its a mathematical joke.

the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

Why then are the final polls all within a few points of the actual result on election day?

because they actually guess pretty well. But its still mathematical fantasy. A sample of 1000 out of a population of 330,000,000 is not statistically meaningful.

and yes, I understand that they claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in the 1000 sample. No one with a lick of sense accepts that.

They don't 'guess' you idiot. They interview people.

If I put 330,000,000 marbles in a bag, a mix of red and blue,

how many would I have to randomly select before I could reliably estimate the blue to red ratio?

 

[Redfish]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

no, dum dum, if you only keep the same rightwingnut loons who went to your rallies during the primary, you lose.... especially when you got fewer votes than your opponent got in HER primary.

I hope that explains things to you, dum dum.

you are truly an idiot. 17 candidates vs 2 candidates. Of course the one with only one opponent got more votes.

your mindless talking points just make you look more stupid that you usually do

 

[NYcarbineer]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

the polls are bullshit. 1000 carefully selected "random" sample people out of 330,000,000 and the idiots think it means something? its a mathematical joke.

the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

Why then are the final polls all within a few points of the actual result on election day?

because they actually guess pretty well. But its still mathematical fantasy. A sample of 1000 out of a population of 330,000,000 is not statistically meaningful.

and yes, I understand that they claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in the 1000 sample. No one with a lick of sense accepts that.

So according to you it's a very good guess that if the election were held today, Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide.

 

[Redfish]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

the polls are bullshit. 1000 carefully selected "random" sample people out of 330,000,000 and the idiots think it means something? its a mathematical joke.

the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

Why then are the final polls all within a few points of the actual result on election day?

because they actually guess pretty well. But its still mathematical fantasy. A sample of 1000 out of a population of 330,000,000 is not statistically meaningful.

and yes, I understand that they claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in the 1000 sample. No one with a lick of sense accepts that.

They don't 'guess' you idiot. They interview people.

If I put 330,000,000 marbles in a bag, a mix of red and blue,

how many would I have to randomly select before I could reliably estimate the blue to red ratio?

according to every statistics text in existence------5%

 

[Redfish]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

the polls are bullshit. 1000 carefully selected "random" sample people out of 330,000,000 and the idiots think it means something? its a mathematical joke.

the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

Why then are the final polls all within a few points of the actual result on election day?

because they actually guess pretty well. But its still mathematical fantasy. A sample of 1000 out of a population of 330,000,000 is not statistically meaningful.

and yes, I understand that they claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in the 1000 sample. No one with a lick of sense accepts that.

So according to you it's a very good guess that if the election were held today, Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide.

NO, because the pollsters work for the media and the media is biased towards Clinton. They are trying to make the Trump supporters give up. its propaganda from the state controlled corrupt media.

 

[Claudette]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

You know I thought the same thing.

Looking at all the post from the lefties on this board Trump has already lost and Hitlery is our next POTUS. God Forbid.

I was wondering how he could draw those huge crowds if he's already lost?? LOL

Really? You couldn't figure out that the same nuts that flocked to see him in the Primary would flock to see him in the General? You couldn't also figure out that group of nuts is small when compared to a General electorate rather than a Primary Electorate?

They go for the hate.

Voices From Donald Trump’s Rallies, Uncensored

Really. You couldn't figure out that he's talking about things people want to hear about.?? If they didn't want to hear him they wouldn't show up dumbass.

 

[g5000]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

the polls are bullshit. 1000 carefully selected "random" sample people out of 330,000,000 and the idiots think it means something? its a mathematical joke.

the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

Why then are the final polls all within a few points of the actual result on election day?

because they actually guess pretty well. But its still mathematical fantasy. A sample of 1000 out of a population of 330,000,000 is not statistically meaningful.

and yes, I understand that they claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in the 1000 sample. No one with a lick of sense accepts that.

They don't 'guess' you idiot. They interview people.

If I put 330,000,000 marbles in a bag, a mix of red and blue,

how many would I have to randomly select before I could reliably estimate the blue to red ratio?

according to every statistics text in existence------5%

Wrong.

https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat100/sites/onlinecourses.science.psu.edu.stat100/files/lesson04/How Are Polls Conducted FINAL.pdf

And you are wrong about the 1,000 figure. That is how many Gallup samples on a given day.

How Does Gallup Daily Tracking Work?

For each of the two surveys, large sample sizes -- 3,500 after a week, 15,000 after a month, and 175,000 after a year -- allow Gallup to examine extensive demographic breaks and cross-tabulations of the daily measures.

 

[ogibillm]

Milwaukee Burns, Louisiana Floods, Obama Golfs

GFY. Other presidents ran or played squash or whatever. Everyone needs an outlet for stress in that job. He has played 300 rounds in 7 1/2 years. Big fucking wooop!

Indeed. Don't allow a few disasters and thousands of hurting citizens get in the way of his golf games and vacations. Is he using one of the terrorists he just released as a caddy?

what do you believe the president should be doing about the flooding or milwaukee?

 

[g5000]

Rally turnouts and ad buys have very little correlation to votes. The real work is achieved in the ground game, and Trump is sucking wind on that score while Clinton's forces are hard at work.

 

[Synthaholic]

 

[Redfish]

the polls are bullshit. 1000 carefully selected "random" sample people out of 330,000,000 and the idiots think it means something? its a mathematical joke.

the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

Why then are the final polls all within a few points of the actual result on election day?

because they actually guess pretty well. But its still mathematical fantasy. A sample of 1000 out of a population of 330,000,000 is not statistically meaningful.

and yes, I understand that they claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in the 1000 sample. No one with a lick of sense accepts that.

They don't 'guess' you idiot. They interview people.

If I put 330,000,000 marbles in a bag, a mix of red and blue,

how many would I have to randomly select before I could reliably estimate the blue to red ratio?

according to every statistics text in existence------5%

Wrong.

https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat100/sites/onlinecourses.science.psu.edu.stat100/files/lesson04/How Are Polls Conducted FINAL.pdf

And you are wrong about the 1,000 figure. That is how many Gallup samples on a given day.

How Does Gallup Daily Tracking Work?

For each of the two surveys, large sample sizes -- 3,500 after a week, 15,000 after a month, and 175,000 after a year -- allow Gallup to examine extensive demographic breaks and cross-tabulations of the daily measures.

the question had to do with the size requirements for a representative sample, not how pollsters claim to create a sample. A truly random sample of 5% is needed to have any statistical significance. the larger the sample the more accurate the result.

I fully understand how the pollsters play the game. Remember they are being paid by someone with an agenda.

 

[NYcarbineer]

So Trump is having a disastrous week! All cable news outlets/anchors are rubbing their body parts over the assumed fact that Trump has fallen behind The Beast. Well, then, if Trump has all of a sudden become so unpopular, then maybe someone can explain why he still fills arenas along with the overflow crowds that had to be refused? He had no problem filling up another arena in Wisconsin last night!

Meanwhile, Hillary still attracts more crickets than humans.

the polls are bullshit. 1000 carefully selected "random" sample people out of 330,000,000 and the idiots think it means something? its a mathematical joke.

the so-called polls are designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

Why then are the final polls all within a few points of the actual result on election day?

because they actually guess pretty well. But its still mathematical fantasy. A sample of 1000 out of a population of 330,000,000 is not statistically meaningful.

and yes, I understand that they claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in the 1000 sample. No one with a lick of sense accepts that.

So according to you it's a very good guess that if the election were held today, Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide.

NO, because the pollsters work for the media and the media is biased towards Clinton. They are trying to make the Trump supporters give up. its propaganda from the state controlled corrupt media.

The poll average in 2012 had Obama winning by less than 1, and he won by 3.9.

Why were they lowballing him, if according to you they were in the tank to make Romney supporters give up?

 

[NYcarbineer]

Why then are the final polls all within a few points of the actual result on election day?

because they actually guess pretty well. But its still mathematical fantasy. A sample of 1000 out of a population of 330,000,000 is not statistically meaningful.

and yes, I understand that they claim to proportionally represent every demographic in the country in the 1000 sample. No one with a lick of sense accepts that.

They don't 'guess' you idiot. They interview people.

If I put 330,000,000 marbles in a bag, a mix of red and blue,

how many would I have to randomly select before I could reliably estimate the blue to red ratio?

according to every statistics text in existence------5%

Wrong.

https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat100/sites/onlinecourses.science.psu.edu.stat100/files/lesson04/How Are Polls Conducted FINAL.pdf

And you are wrong about the 1,000 figure. That is how many Gallup samples on a given day.

How Does Gallup Daily Tracking Work?

For each of the two surveys, large sample sizes -- 3,500 after a week, 15,000 after a month, and 175,000 after a year -- allow Gallup to examine extensive demographic breaks and cross-tabulations of the daily measures.

the question had to do with the size requirements for a representative sample, not how pollsters claim to create a sample. A truly random sample of 5% is needed to have any statistical significance. the larger the sample the more accurate the result.

I fully understand how the pollsters play the game. Remember they are being paid by someone with an agenda.

Prove the highlighted. With real evidence.

 

[g5000]

. A truly random sample of 5% is needed to have any statistical significance.

Nope. Read the links I provided.

 

[Synthaholic]