South Carolina Republican Primary Thread

[Lucy Hamilton]

This very daunting to contemplate. For instance North Carolina next, are their voting patterns similar to South Carolina, would they be liking Donald Trump or not?

Then Texas and Florida, they should surely be for Cruz and Rubio, but then what about the other States?

If Cruz wins Texas, with 155 delegates, he's then automatically in the lead.

Look at the polls. Trump is winning in all of the individual states, to my knowledge.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Cruz has Texas lead so far, but that will melt, and Arkansas is a toss up, but after this win, Trump is going to build momentum, no doubt and I think he will pick up 5% more across the board.

Okay thanks, I've bookmarked Real Clear Politics. It's been difficult for me to keep track, mainly because I'm not sure which sources lean Left, Right, Centre etc.

Of course nearly all of them have been anti-Trump, which I can tell whenever an article appears.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

And they will waste their finances on Trump as they dont have his weak spot targeted yet.

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

Ceck out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

Ever?

I know it's off topic, but WTF with David Cameron, he get's nothing that's going to help British people, also no control of UK borders....so he says his "deal" is great and now wants you ALL to vote in stupid Referendum to stay in EU.

I like Michael Gove, hopefully he can get good No vote organised and hopefully British people vote No, even if it's just say 52% for No, that would do.

Maybe there might be a new thread on this subject where this can be discussed.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

Ceck out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

Trump's negatives are 60%. Rubio's are half that.

Gallup: Trump Highest Unfavorable Rating Ever Recorded

As for NH/SC, no candidate has ever won the nomination with so few party endorsements. So one of those has to break.

Trump iss an 80% favorite for Nevada, Cruz and Rubio...10% each. The train keeps chugging.

If Rubio was a great candidate, he'd be able to beat Trump now.

He hasn't.

When is Nevada? Is it on Tuesday?

 

[Jackson]

Ceck out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

Trump's negatives are 60%. Rubio's are half that.

Gallup: Trump Highest Unfavorable Rating Ever Recorded

As for NH/SC, no candidate has ever won the nomination with so few party endorsements. So one of those has to break.

Trump iss an 80% favorite for Nevada, Cruz and Rubio...10% each. The train keeps chugging.

If Rubio was a great candidate, he'd be able to beat Trump now.

He hasn't.

When is Nevada? Is it on Tuesday?

I believe the Republicans vote on Tuesday, yes.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

Trump's negatives are 60%. Rubio's are half that.

Gallup: Trump Highest Unfavorable Rating Ever Recorded

As for NH/SC, no candidate has ever won the nomination with so few party endorsements. So one of those has to break.

Trump iss an 80% favorite for Nevada, Cruz and Rubio...10% each. The train keeps chugging.

If Rubio was a great candidate, he'd be able to beat Trump now.

He hasn't.

When is Nevada? Is it on Tuesday?

I believe the Republicans vote on Tuesday, yes.

Okay thanks....it's Nevada, the hookers can vote, the hookers definately will vote for The Donald!

Go Trump! Go Hookers!

 

[deltex1]

it is fact
isnt it?

1: trump
2: rubio
3: cruz

Congrats to Dani...an Iranian starting a the tracking thread for an US primary election! The wonders of the Internet age! Now if we can just get him to run for Ayatollah.........yo.

 

[Jackson]

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

Trump's negatives are 60%. Rubio's are half that.

Gallup: Trump Highest Unfavorable Rating Ever Recorded

As for NH/SC, no candidate has ever won the nomination with so few party endorsements. So one of those has to break.

Trump iss an 80% favorite for Nevada, Cruz and Rubio...10% each. The train keeps chugging.

If Rubio was a great candidate, he'd be able to beat Trump now.

He hasn't.

When is Nevada? Is it on Tuesday?

I believe the Republicans vote on Tuesday, yes.

Okay thanks....it's Nevada, the hookers can vote, the hookers definately will vote for The Donald!

Go Trump! Go Hookers!

I would think they would like to sleep in the Lincoln bedroom. They'll vote for Hillary (and Bill).

 

[Cecilie1200]

Cruz and rubio are not electable period. What anyone sees in them is thee question.

I was asking the same question about Trump. I can only assume that the entire state of South Carolina got drunk and went to vote as a goof.

 

[Zander]

Trump had a very nice victory tonight. I don't see how he can be stopped, and frankly, I'm tickled pink over it!

 

[Cecilie1200]

Fox News, the President of the United States, even the Pope himself cannot stop Trump.

Rubio folded under the pressure from one Governor in New Jersey.

Tell me anyone of the other candidates could have survived this week...much less thrived, and won!

Honestly, I know the pain of having a candidate lose, so do not take this as rubbing it in. But for Trump to be able to maintain his lead and emerge victorious. Perhaps it is time to reassess your feelings about Trump's candidacy.

Problem is, there's no reason whatsoever to reassess my feelings about Trump AS a candidate, let alone *shudder* President.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

it is fact
isnt it?

1: trump
2: rubio
3: cruz

Congrats to Dani...an Iranian starting a the tracking thread for an US primary election! The wonders of the Internet age! Now if we can just get him to run for Ayatollah.........yo.

I volunteer to be Dani's campaign manager!

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

Trump's negatives are 60%. Rubio's are half that.

Gallup: Trump Highest Unfavorable Rating Ever Recorded

As for NH/SC, no candidate has ever won the nomination with so few party endorsements. So one of those has to break.

Trump iss an 80% favorite for Nevada, Cruz and Rubio...10% each. The train keeps chugging.

If Rubio was a great candidate, he'd be able to beat Trump now.

He hasn't.

When is Nevada? Is it on Tuesday?

I believe the Republicans vote on Tuesday, yes.

Okay thanks....it's Nevada, the hookers can vote, the hookers definately will vote for The Donald!

Go Trump! Go Hookers!

I would think they would like to sleep in the Lincoln bedroom. They'll vote for Hillary (and Bill).

 

[Jackson]

Trump iss an 80% favorite for Nevada, Cruz and Rubio...10% each. The train keeps chugging.

If Rubio was a great candidate, he'd be able to beat Trump now.

He hasn't.

When is Nevada? Is it on Tuesday?

I believe the Republicans vote on Tuesday, yes.

Okay thanks....it's Nevada, the hookers can vote, the hookers definately will vote for The Donald!

Go Trump! Go Hookers!

I would think they would like to sleep in the Lincoln bedroom. They'll vote for Hillary (and Bill).

Bill would sneak the pros in and they would be sleeping in the Lincoln Bedroom.,,with him. A couple at a time.

 

[Tilly]

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

Ceck out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

Ever?

I know it's off topic, but WTF with David Cameron, he get's nothing that's going to help British people, also no control of UK borders....so he says his "deal" is great and now wants you ALL to vote in stupid Referendum to stay in EU.

I like Michael Gove, hopefully he can get good No vote organised and hopefully British people vote No, even if it's just say 52% for No, that would do.

Maybe there might be a new thread on this subject where this can be discussed.

I know. What can I say? He's hopeless. But it hasn't gone un noticed. It might be better for the referendum that he didn't get a good deal though. Less excuse for people to want to stay in, maybe. Fingers crossed.

 

[Zander]

Fox News, the President of the United States, even the Pope himself cannot stop Trump.

Rubio folded under the pressure from one Governor in New Jersey.

Tell me anyone of the other candidates could have survived this week...much less thrived, and won!

Honestly, I know the pain of having a candidate lose, so do not take this as rubbing it in. But for Trump to be able to maintain his lead and emerge victorious. Perhaps it is time to reassess your feelings about Trump's candidacy.

Problem is, there's no reason whatsoever to reassess my feelings about Trump AS a candidate, let alone *shudder* President.

Better buy another pillow dear, Trump is the front runner and has a very good chance of winning the whole shebang....

 

[Jackson]

And once again more than 60 percent of republicans vote for someone other than Trump.

Could it be because there are so many candidates running??? When it is just between Trump and Clinton, it is 1 or 5 points difference.

 

[bbert1994]

Look, I can't stress this enough, Donald Trump is an omen for the GOP... in all 3 races now, Marco Rubio wins the question of electability, yet Trump still won. Look, so many people say oh, well Trump says it like it is and I like what he says... You know what, talk is cheap. Look, you have two politically seasoned Democratic candidates, you have two politically seasoned Republican candidates, then theres Donald Trump. When you go to a general election, how is Donald Trumpp going to defend himself when he is talking the way he is. "I'm going to build a wall, and Mexico will pay for it," "America is going to be great again," "America will win again," you can only say these things so long until people ask how? And back to my argument, talk is cheap. You can say all that people want to hear, but until you prove your point, you have no credibility. Plus the fact, lets all admit this man is not presidential quality. It's a huge joke, and the GOP is in trouble.

 

[JimBowie1958]

And they will waste their finances on Trump as they dont have his weak spot targeted yet.

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

Ceck out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

Ever?

1980 and 84 Reagan won both
1988 and 92 George H W Bush won both
1996 Buchanan took New Hampshire, Dole took S Carolina
2000 McCain took NH and Bush took SC
2004 W Bush took both
2008 McCain won both
2012 Romney took NH and Gingrich took SC
2016 Trump took both.

So while it has not been necessary, IF a candidate won both, he won the nomination eventually.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Look, I can't stress this enough, Donald Trump is an omen for the GOP... in all 3 races now, Marco Rubio wins the question of electability, yet Trump still won. Look, so many people say oh, well Trump says it like it is and I like what he says... You know what, talk is cheap. Look, you have two politically seasoned Democratic candidates, you have two politically seasoned Republican candidates, then theres Donald Trump. When you go to a general election, how is Donald Trumpp going to defend himself when he is talking the way he is. "I'm going to build a wall, and Mexico will pay for it," "America is going to be great again," "America will win again," you can only say these things so long until people ask how? And back to my argument, talk is cheap. You can say all that people want to hear, but until you prove your point, you have no credibility. Plus the fact, lets all admit this man is not presidential quality. It's a huge joke, and the GOP is in trouble.

You also have to bear in mind that these pollsters are polling an untestable question when they ask about favorable vrs unfavorable. You cannot disprove their results with an election or caucus result.

So these pollsters are in the tank for the establishment or they lose bidness.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Cruz and rubio are not electable period. What anyone sees in them is thee question.

I was asking the same question about Trump. I can only assume that the entire state of South Carolina got drunk and went to vote as a goof.

You do realize that that reaction is mentally unhealthy for you, right?

It is called schizophrenia, the reality around you is not as important as the fantasy in your noggin.