South Carolina Republican Primary Thread

[Jackson]

It's amazing. Trump can piss off the pope and still win! (BTW, the pope was very wrong with what he said about Trump.) I think Trump voters thumbed their nose to the pope.

 

[Toro]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

And they will waste their finances on Trump as they dont have his weak spot targeted yet.

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

 

[Toro]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

Bush is out of the race.

His SuperPAC is not.

 

[Jackson]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

And they will waste their finances on Trump as they dont have his weak spot targeted yet.

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

I think Rubio and Cruz will continue to attack each other instead of Trump. But I could be wrong.
I personally think Cruz is deceitful and Rubio just plain wrong.

 

[Missourian]

And once again more than 60 percent of republicans vote for someone other than Trump.

So?

In 2012, 61% of Republicans voted against Romney when he won New Hampshire and 73% of Republicans voted against Romney in the South Carolina Primary.

And he won the Nomination.

 

[Jackson]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

Bush is out of the race.

His SuperPAC is not.

So, Jeb still controls the SuperPac money for attack ads?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

And they will waste their finances on Trump as they dont have his weak spot targeted yet.

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

Check out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

Bush is out of the race.

His SuperPAC is not.

So, Jeb still controls the SuperPac money for attack ads?

No, in theory he never did.

Who knows where that money will go.

 

[Lucy Hamilton]

This very daunting to contemplate. For instance North Carolina next, are their voting patterns similar to South Carolina, would they be liking Donald Trump or not?

Then Texas and Florida, they should surely be for Cruz and Rubio, but then what about the other States?

If Cruz wins Texas, with 155 delegates, he's then automatically in the lead.

 

[eagle1462010]

This very daunting to contemplate. For instance North Carolina next, are their voting patterns similar to South Carolina, would they be liking Donald Trump or not?

Then Texas and Florida, they should surely be for Cruz and Rubio, but then what about the other States?

If Cruz wins Texas, with 155 delegates, he's then automatically in the lead.

Super Tuesday is super for a reason..............A lot up for grab.........

 

[JimBowie1958]

This very daunting to contemplate. For instance North Carolina next, are their voting patterns similar to South Carolina, would they be liking Donald Trump or not?

Then Texas and Florida, they should surely be for Cruz and Rubio, but then what about the other States?

If Cruz wins Texas, with 155 delegates, he's then automatically in the lead.

Look at the polls. Trump is winning in all of the individual states, to my knowledge.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Cruz has Texas lead so far, but that will melt, and Arkansas is a toss up, but after this win, Trump is going to build momentum, no doubt and I think he will pick up 5% more across the board.

 

[Jackson]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

Bush is out of the race.

His SuperPAC is not.

So, Jeb still controls the SuperPac money for attack ads?

No, in theory he never did.

Who knows where that money will go.

If Jeb throws his votes to another candidate, can his money go with it? Or does that money go back to donors? Does it stay with hi in case he runs for office again?

 

[Toro]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

And they will waste their finances on Trump as they dont have his weak spot targeted yet.

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

Ceck out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

And they will waste their finances on Trump as they dont have his weak spot targeted yet.

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

Ceck out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

 

[Toro]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

Bush is out of the race.

His SuperPAC is not.

So, Jeb still controls the SuperPac money for attack ads?

No, in theory he never did.

Who knows where that money will go.

If Jeb throws his votes to another candidate, can his money go with it? Or does that money go back to donors? Does it stay with hi in case he runs for office again?

SuperPACs are independent of the candidate. They continue to exist after the candidate withdraws from the election.

The managers of the SuperPAC may give back the donations, or they may use them in any way they see fit.

Since Bush is the ultimate establishment candidate, my guess is that the establishment's wish will be to take down Trump and Cruz.

 

[Toro]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

And they will waste their finances on Trump as they dont have his weak spot targeted yet.

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

Ceck out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

Trump's negatives are 60%. Rubio's are half that.

Gallup: Trump Highest Unfavorable Rating Ever Recorded

As for NH/SC, no candidate has ever won the nomination with so few party endorsements. So one of those has to break.

 

[Missourian]

Cruz and Rubio are within 1,000 votes of each other...I doubt either of them is going to get a clear victory.

Bush support may not go to Rubio...I suspect it will go to Kasich and some to Cruz. Rubio beat up Bush as badly as Trump did, and those two were supposed to be friends. Bad blood doesn't attack much support.

 

[JimBowie1958]

And they will waste their finances on Trump as they dont have his weak spot targeted yet.

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

Ceck out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

Trump's negatives are 60%. Rubio's are half that.

Gallup: Trump Highest Unfavorable Rating Ever Recorded

As for NH/SC, no candidate has ever won the nomination with so few party endorsements. So one of those has to break.

You use stale data.
Monitoring Shifts in Presidential Candidates' Images

Cruz's image among Republicans has dropped by 18 points (net favorable) since about a month ago, and he is now at a net favorable of +30. Trump himself had a net favorable image of +30 less than three weeks ago, but his image has cratered to +17 among Republicans, close to his all-time low. Cruz still has the better image, but both men have seen Republicans become less and less positive about them.

The natural question is: Whose image has been improving concomitantly? The answer to that is Marco Rubio, whose image has been trending upward and who is now essentially tied with Ben Carson as the best-liked of any GOP candidate -- +44 for Carson, +42 for Rubio. Media consensus has coalesced around a negative review of Rubio's Saturday night debate performance in New Hampshire, so Republicans' views of him could suffer going forward.

Chris Christie's image has also been improving but, at +22, it is still less positive than Rubio's or Cruz's. Jeb Bush has come out of negative territory, but his net favorable score of +11 is still low. Carly Fiorina has been off the media and debate stage (she was excluded from Saturday night's GOP debate in New Hampshire), but her +25 net favorable reflects an upward trend. John Kasich's image is at +13, about on par with Bush's.


Trumps image will improve as he spends money to promote his campaign. The GOP attacks are going to have a decreasing rate of return as time goes on and Trump wins more states.

 

[Missourian]

And they will waste their finances on Trump as they dont have his weak spot targeted yet.

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

Ceck out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

Trump's negatives are 60%. Rubio's are half that.

Gallup: Trump Highest Unfavorable Rating Ever Recorded

As for NH/SC, no candidate has ever won the nomination with so few party endorsements. So one of those has to break.

Trump iss an 80% favorite for Nevada, Cruz and Rubio...10% each. The train keeps chugging.

If Rubio was a great candidate, he'd be able to beat Trump now.

He hasn't.

 

[Tilly]

Bush's $100 million SuperPAC Right to Rise will now turn its sights to Cruz and, especially, Trump.

And they will waste their finances on Trump as they dont have his weak spot targeted yet.

Something like 15% of all the negative ads have been directed towards Trump. Instead, most of the negative ads have been the establishment candidates firing at each other. That's about to change.

The strategy will be to cap and chip away at Trump. He will still get 30% of the vote. Now, the task will be to ensure that Jeb's voters come to Rubio and nowhere else, to cap Trump, and to beat Cruz.

Ceck out these pie charts of the South Carolina primary voters. SCHRC Poll 2 18.pdf

Trump wins every category. And if you think that all the Bush people are going to magically swing over to Rubio, keep in mind some bitter feelings have been left. Among all conservatives, strong and moderate conservatives, Trump wins. Among Evangelicals Trump wins. Trump wins all age groups too.

This thing is not magically going to go to Rubio just because a low energy candidate withdrew.

In polling, Trump is hardly anyone's second choice. Rubio by far is the leader as a second-choice candidate.

Also, in head-to-head polls, Rubio smokes Trump. (As does Cruz.)

Finally, Trump has by far the highest negatives of all the candidates, the highest of all time according to Gallup. His negatives are double those of all the Republican candidates amongst Republicans.

IOW, Trump consistently gets about a third of all Republican voters, but has a low ceiling since he doesn't appeal to anyone outside of his core and passionate supporters. For Trump to win, he has to appeal to others outside of his core. He hasn't proven it thus far.

No, Rubio has higher negatives than Trump, and the momentum is heading toward Trump. He should have a good lead by March 1, but who knows?

Historically no Republican candidate that won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has lost the nomination race.

Ever?