itfitzme
VIP Member
- Jan 29, 2012
- 5,186
- 393
PDO, AMO and ocean heat absorption
Of course, in a year that the ocean surface temperature is higher, it will absorb less heat then in a year that it is lower. Assuming all other things being equal, then there should be a positive correlation between air temp and ocean temp, a higher ocean temp resulting in a higher air temp.
This leads to the question as to if there is a lag between the two. The idea being that in the year following a higher ocean temp, there would be higher air temp as less heat was absorbed in the previous year. And, in fact, the correlation of PDO and AMO to global air temp is higher with a one year lag than with no lag or two years.
For PDO, the correlation is pretty stark, going from 89% to 96%
AMO, not so much, sitting at only 40 to 45%. Still, it gains 5 points compared to the PDO gain of 7%.
Of course, in a year that the ocean surface temperature is higher, it will absorb less heat then in a year that it is lower. Assuming all other things being equal, then there should be a positive correlation between air temp and ocean temp, a higher ocean temp resulting in a higher air temp.
This leads to the question as to if there is a lag between the two. The idea being that in the year following a higher ocean temp, there would be higher air temp as less heat was absorbed in the previous year. And, in fact, the correlation of PDO and AMO to global air temp is higher with a one year lag than with no lag or two years.
For PDO, the correlation is pretty stark, going from 89% to 96%
AMO, not so much, sitting at only 40 to 45%. Still, it gains 5 points compared to the PDO gain of 7%.